Now Is the Time for a Holliday

Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

It's no secret we here at Fantasy FanHouse were not a fan of Matt Holliday for your fantasy baseball team this season. We told you to avoid him several times in the draft kit, and still more in chats. This wasn't because we thought he was a terrible player or a bad guy. Quite the contrary, he's a good player and seems like a swell enough guy. It's just that he was so overvalued and we knew his numbers would take a hit departing Colorado for the Bay area.

Well, now is the fun part of fantasy baseball. Now we're telling you to trade for him.

Wait, what? Am I a flip-flopper? Well, according to some people's definition of that term, yes. According to fantasy baseball players with a solid pedigree, it's a simple case of maximizing returns on the value of a player.

Consider the following five things with Holliday:

1. His fantasy owner is still probably bitter after spending a second round pick on him and would be happy to entertain offers.

2. Since finally hitting his first home run April 30th, Holliday has now hit 7 in just over a month. That's around a 40-home-run pace, which would mean you can expect roughly another 25 at this same pace until the season ends.

3. In his last 20 games, Holliday is hitting .358.

4. In a true reversal of fortunes, Holliday is being decimated by his home ballpark. He's hitting only .250 at home this year (compared to .298 on the road). Of course, we knew Oakland would kill his numbers as it's a notorious pitcher's park (segue time) ...

5. The A's flat-out suck. They'll be out of the race in the AL West within another few weeks, at which point some teams in need of offensive punch (Reds? Red Sox? Braves? Giants?) will start inquiring about his availability. When he gets traded, and he will, he'll most likely be freed from the clutches of a pitcher's park. All of those options would probably help his fantasy value for different reasons, and it would skyrocket if he joined the Reds. [We should note that Turner Field has inexplicably been the worst home run park in the majors this season, though it's probably a product of small sample size]

It feels really weird to say after the preseason slandering we did of Holliday, but now is a great time to get him. You gotta love the fickle nature of fantasy sports.

Bits From the Box Scores
- In his post-game interview, Nick Swisher declared emphatically that it wasn't May anymore. Well, Mr. Obvious, we know it was June 1. Swisher was saying it symbolically, though, not informatively. He entered May hitting .312 with 7 home runs, 19 RBI, 21 runs and 8 doubles. In May? .150, 3 homers, 10 RBI, 9 runs, 1 double and a paltry .586 OPS. Don't think the counting stats suffered due to a lack of playing time, either, because he had 12 more plate appearances than he did in March/April. Anyway, he turned the calendar and a new leaf all at once. Monday night, Swisher went 2-4 with a pair of doubles and RBI, respectively. Keep an eye on him if he's available in your league, though he won't often have that cushy two-hole spot in the order.

- I don't blame owners who drafted Gavin Floyd for not wanting to venture back. Sometimes you need some time apart, after all. But ... he's really back on track. In his last three starts, he's thrown 23 innings and only allowed 5 earned runs (1.96 ERA), struck out 24, walked only 7 and allowed only 20 base-runners (0.87 WHIP). If he's hanging on your waiver wire, it's time to shallow your pride and get back together. He won't mind.

- Andy LaRoche is still humming along quietly. The 26-year-old is now hitting .304 (.414 with 14 RBI in 16 games since May 14). He flashed big-time power potential in the minors, so it's entirely possible that is what comes next as he acclimates to the major league level as a hitter. He should be on pretty much all NL-Only teams by now.

- I'll cop to being biased against Rich Hill, so you'll forgive me when I say not to buy into his incredible outing against the Mariners -- 7 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts -- who rank dead last in the AL in runs and on-base percentage.

- You know why it would suck to be a relief pitcher? Matt Lindstrom has been kind of a stud for 22 outings this year. In those outings, he's hurled 21 2/3 innings and only allowed 3 earned runs. That's a 1.25 ERA. The problem is, he also worked two bad outings. Because of those, his ERA is 5.82. As it stands, he's 10-for-12 in save opportunities and you could do much worse for a third closer.

- Roy Oswalt had a pretty shaky start in 2008. From June 10 on, though, he went 13-4 with a 2.34 ERA and a 106:26 K:BB ratio. Before that run, he was 4-6 with a 5.38 ERA. He ended 17-10 with a 3.54. In the present tense, he entered Monday night with a 1-2 record and a 4.62 ERA for 2009. Monday night, he went 7 innings, struck out 8, only allowed 1 run and got the win. Sound familiar? Grab him if you can.

- This is a total (I repeat, total) gut feeling, but I believe Erik Bedard will be in the Phillies rotation before the All-Star break. If I'm right, you'd be wise to trade for him now. Yes, he'd be moving to a much worse park, but he'd benefit from near-infinitely better run support and the league change. Plus, the NL East has lots of big strikeout victims (even outside the Ryan Howard-led Phils).

The Afflicted: Bad sign out of Cincy. Edinson Volquez was starting his first game back after back spasms had him on the disabled list, and he left the game after only one inning. Even worse news from northern Ohio: Grady Sizemore may need surgery, and -- if he has it -- he'll be on the shelf until late July. It's time to start exploring other outfield options if you own Sizemore (may we suggest Holliday?). Chad Qualls didn't take the ball last night in a save opportunity due to forearm stiffness. Tony Pena will get the ball in the ninth should he continue to miss time. Mike Cameron left mid-game with a bum knee.

Lineup Lock Time: Once again, it's 7:05 PM ET. When the Cubs go on the road, you get a break from day baseball during the week.

Wednesday's Ace in the Hole: Mike Pelfrey is only owned in 37 percent of Yahoo! fantasy leagues. Though he started 4-0, his ERA was 5.46 at the time. It was actually 8.10 after his first two starts and has incrementally decreased with every single proceeding start all the way down to 3.88. It would actually be a sparkling 2.96 if you remove those two starts. He's even upped his strikeout totals, punching out 12 in the last two games after only doing so 11 times in his first seven starts.

Wednesday he squares off against the Pirates. He's only faced them once in his young career, and that resulted in 7 shutout innings and a Mets' victory. Think about picking him up for this outing and then holding him for the rest of the season. He's throwing really well, plays for a good team, and gets to pitch half his outings in a pitcher's haven.