Prospects or Draft Picks for Holliday?

Billy Beane's public position has always been that the A's were happy to keep Matt Holliday until the end of the season, even if they weren't contending, because he could get the draft picks as compensation if Holliday signed elsewhere.

Don't believe that.

Beane has to make that his public position. He has to convince his fellow GMs that he is happy to keep Holliday, or else he has no trade leverage.

That was a dubious position from Day 1, but now it's looking even more questionable. As we near the season's halfway point, Holliday is still having an unspectacular year, and there is a growing possibility, as pointed out by Buster Olney, that the A's might not be able to get those draft picks anyway.

In order to get compensation draft picks for losing a free agent, a team must offer that player arbitration, or have the player sign elsewhere before the arbitration deadline in December. If Holliday had his normal .315-30-110 type season, there would be no doubt that he would have substantial multi-year offers on the table, and the A's could safely assume that he'd take one of them. They'd offer him arbitration. He'd decline. They'd get the picks.

Now, with Holliday's numbers going the way of the economy, nothing is certain. If Holliday finishes this season the way he's started it, hitting something like .280 with 20 homers and 75 RBI, he might find himself as this winter's Manny Ramirez (minus the baggage), waiting for that $120 million deal that's not there. (Holliday, like Ramirez, is a Scott Boras client.) Holliday then may realize that his best bet would be to take the A's arbitration offer and try again as a free agent in 2010. If Holiday goes to arbitration, he'd likely win a salary of at least $15 or $16 million. He's making $13.5 million this year.

Would the A's want to pay him that? Probably not.

Given that, it seems even more likely that the A's best path would be trade Holliday and get something for him now.

Even discounting the arbitration issue, Beane's history indicates that he would be more likely to trade Holliday than to keep him.

Beane always says he's happy to let his free agents walk and take the draft picks, which he did with Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Keith Foulke, Jermaine Dye and Barry Zito. The difference is the A's were good when those guys left. Beane used them to help get his team into the playoffs.

Since the A's last playoff appearance in 2006, Beane has traded away just about anyone with any value, long before they were eligible for free agency, in the interest of getting a quick infusion of younger players with professional track records (as opposed to waiting and getting amateurs through the draft).

Also, the A's young pitching staff is developing pretty quickly, so Beane is likely to prefer getting some players who could help them win in 2010 and 2011 instead of draft picks who may not even be signed until August 2010.

Bottom line: Look for Holliday to be traded, and look for it to happen around the middle of July. Beane also doesn't like to wait till the last minute.