On Second Thought: Running Backs

On Second Thought is Matt Snyder's look back at the initial FanHouse staff rankings, which were compiled nearly a month ago. As we all know, fantasy players' value changes frequently, even when no games are being played. Today, we look at running backs.

As teams continue to use two-backs systems, running back has become an increasingly deep and unpredictable position. Thus, you don't have the predictable first two rounds of years past. Injuries and the progress of young backs will shuffle backfields throughout the preseason. As that happens, the fantasy values of the running backs continually shift. Let's take a look.

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Guys We Didn't Like Enough

Darren McFadden, Raiders - The closer we get to the season, the more convinced I am that McFadden's going to put up the kind of numbers that will make a 2010 first-rounder. Yes, you read that correctly. The 22-year-old (he will be when the season starts, at least) from Arkansas has as much talent as any running back in the league. He battled toe injuries all last season. That might sound minor, but the big toe is absolutely paramount to cutting and agility. An injury to the big toe takes away the dynamics of a runner like McFadden. Yet, he still averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 9.8 yards per catch on 29 receptions.

The Raiders have a good run-blocking line, and they've added blocking fullback Lorenzo Neal -- who LaDanian Tomlinson seemed to miss last season. Reports from the Oakland area have McFadden healthy and motivated for a big season. I love the idea of having a late pick (say 11th or 12th of a 12-team league), getting Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald, a solid RB1, and then snagging McFadden as one of the last two picks of Round 3. Now that's a foundation.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs - What a difference a year makes. Last year I warned you that he'd ruin your team (p.s. I'm still waiting on "Michael Walker" from Comment #4 to man up like he said he would), and he probably did if you didn't listen. Now, I'm going to the opposite end. LJ turns 30 this season, but he's actually a young 30. He's only had more than 200 carries in a season twice. He's now two full seasons removed from that insane 416-carry season in 2006 when Herm Edwards crippled him. His yards-per-carry went up a whole yard from 2007 (3.5) to 2008 (4.5). The Chiefs now have a passing attack and a good offensive scheme under new head coach Todd Haley. There's something left in the tank, and now is the time to show it.

We had Johnson at 28, and that was too low. He's a RB2 in 12-team leagues.

Felix Jones, Cowboys - Whether it's the Razorback (the Cowboys' version of the more-well-known "Wildcat"), split wide as a receiver or simply in the backfield, the Cowboys are going to find ways to get the ball into this playmaker's hands -- especially now that Terrell Owens' touches have left Dallas. Before being hobbled by a toe-injury (what was it, a rookie epidemic?), Jones was one of the most exciting players in the NFL, compiling a 9.8 yards-per-carry average with rushing touchdowns of 11, 60 and 33 yards and a 98-yard kickoff return. I love his chances to enter the top-30 this year for running backs, and I'd certainly draft him ahead of Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee, and Darren Sproles.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants - In ranking him 50th, we collectively blew this one. Big time. Bradshaw steps into the role filled by Derrick Ward last season for the Giants, who will continue to count heavily on the run to move the chains. Ward had 1,025 yards last season. Bradshaw is a bit smaller, but he's also faster and makes cuts quicker. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season in 67 attempts. The workload will increase to 150-plus carries this year. He's a RB3 in larger formats.

Guys We Liked Too Much

Brian Westbrook, Eagles - He's never played all 16 games in a season. Last year, he missed two games, but it was his on-field performance that was disconcerting. His total yards from scrimmage per game (just rushing and receiving) went down to 98.6 from 140.3 in 2007 and 127.7 in 2006. Though they did lose the two games he didn't play, they showed they could win without big stats from him when he did little in Weeks 3, 9, 15 and 17 (an absolutely throttling of the Cowboys with a mere whimper from Westbrook). Now they've added LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin to Donovan McNabb's arsenal.

Westbrook is still a stud, but if you factor in everything in the above paragraph, it's hard to justify drafting him as the fifth running back off the board.

Marion Barber, Cowboys - The upside is immense, but I have too many lingering questions about Barber. His average per carry dipped down to 3.7 last season. You might argue that's due to his use on the goal-line, but his percentage of goal-line carries was much higher in the previous two campaigns, in which he averaged 4.8 per trip. The increased presence of Jones on offense, not to mention the ability of Tashard Choice to spell him, will also limit Barber to a degree.

Of course, anything else we could say about Barber would be positive. He's a beast. I'm just worried he won't be showing us near as much as he did in the first 3/4 of 2008.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills - He's missing the first three games of the season. Team that with a bye week and you'll have to make the playoffs without Lynch for four of your games. That alone means he shouldn't be considered a RB2 in any league, and we have him 19th. Factor in the abilities of Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes in addition to the increased pass looks they'll have to give T.O., and I'm just not sure I'd even want to deal with Lynch. Let someone else take him in the third or fourth round. Below that and I'd pick him, but he won't last that long.

Willis McGahee, Ravens - There's a three-headed monster in the Baltimore backfield, so it's hard to justify any one of them as the 32nd-ranked fantasy back. Plus, Ray Rice is the young, explosive back and LeRon McClain is the short-yardage back. If anyone gets squeezed out of fantasy relevance, I'd be worried it was McGahee.

Thursday: Wide Receivers