On Second Thought: Wide Receivers

On Second Thought is Matt Snyder's look back at the initial FanHouse staff rankings, which were compiled nearly a month ago. As we all know, fantasy players' value changes frequently, even when no games are being played.

Formerly a relatively unpredictable position with just a small handful of reliable WR1-types, wide receiver now sports a solid upper-echelon. With the overemphasis on the pass game in the NFL, you must have one elite wideout to compete in fantasy football.

There is also good depth. It seems to me most of the shaky players here in terms of good value are in the teens. Meaning after the elite wideout, you should let everyone fill out their WR2 while waiting to stockpile good value guys in the seven and eight round range.

---

---

Guys We Didn't Like Enough

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs - He's got all the tools to be a superstar and now he's armed with a pass-oriented head coach and (hopefully) the same starting quarterback for an entire season. There aren't many receivers who were more consistent last season than Bowe, but he never exploded -- only two 100-plus yard games and he didn't hit paydirt in either. This season will be Bowe's third in the NFL, which is generally a time when receivers really hit their prime in the NFL. Expect the consistency of last year with plenty of big-time games peppered in. He's an elite wideout you can get for the price of a high-end WR2 in most leagues.

Marques Colston, Saints - In 2007, Colston caught 98 passes for 1,202 yards and 11 touchdowns. He wasn't healthy last season, even when he played, but Drew Brees threw for over 5,000 yards. Standing 6-foot-4, Colston is easily the best downfield option Brees has. Colston's also only 26 years old, so it's not like there's some sort of regression to be expected. Reports from the New Orleans area have him motivated to prove he's completely healthy and can play like it's 2007 again. Like Bowe, he's also an elite wideout.

Chad Ochocinco, Bengals - Talk about someone who missed Carson Palmer. Ocho had 40 less catches and 900 less yards last season than in 2007. Between 2003 and 2007, you could book around 90 catches, 1,350 yards and 8 touchdowns. All of a sudden, with one off year -- which you could easily blame on injury woes and losing his quarterback --- and we're knocking him below Roy Williams, Santonio Holmes and Lee Evans? He's 31 years old, not dead.

Braylon Edwards, Browns - Obviously, there's a stigma surrounding Edwards because of the colossal failure that was 2008. I can't blame guys who owned him in fantasy last year for boycotting him for the rest of his life. Still, we had him below Williams, Holmes and Evans in the rankings. We're talking about a guy one season removed from an 80-catch, 1,289-yard, 16-touchdown campaign. Give him a chance with a full season of Brady Quinn as a WR2.

Devin Hester, Bears - Homer pick here, sure. But let's not forget to factor in several things. First of all, this will be the third year since Hester's conversion to receiver. Also, Jay Cutler's electric arm made Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal into constant deep threats, while Hester was relegated to watching balls either sail far over his head or drawing pass interference penalties due to the ball being severely underthrown (seriously, did you watch the Thursday night game against New Orleans? Hester should have had 30 fantasy points). With his speed and game-breaking ability, having a passer like Cutler is good enough to get Hester into WR3 range. Is a 1,000-yard season on the way? Without question.

Guys We Liked Too Much

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks - I don't have much more than a gut feeling to back this one up. He's playing in a division with bad defenses and has a reliable quarterback -- two things he couldn't have said last season. Still, looking at our rankings and seeing him ahead of Colston and Wes Welker behind him just doesn't feel right. I'd rather have either, and I'd also likely take Vincent Jackson and Mr. Ochocinco before Housh if I was drafting today (I say "likely" because sometimes you never know until you are sitting there on the clock).

Brandon Marshall, YourGuessIsAsGoodAsMine - So, is he going to remain in Denver, will Kyle Orton's inability to hit a deep pass murder his value? Is he going to get suspended for four games or more? Is he going to be traded to Tampa Bay, or somewhere else where the quarterback situation doesn't suit him just yet?

It's hard to dispute the numbers Marshall put up the last two seasons, where he averaged 103 catches, 1,295 yards and 6.5 touchdowns.

But, in addition to the first paragraph of this entry, we should also legitimately ask how much Cutler made Marshall. Remember, Welker was a nobody before New England and Marvin Harrison was an also-ran before Peyton Manning. There are countless examples of this throughout the recent history of the NFL.

Another layer: Marshall was targeted more than any other receiver in the NFL. He had 11 more targets than Andre Johnson and 24 more than Bowe (who had the third most). He's not getting near that many looks under Orton, who Bears fans have dubbed "Captain Checkdown." And if Marshall is traded, you can't guarantee that kind of workload.

It's very possible Marshall ends up in a good situation with plenty of offensive involvement and is a great receiver on his own. For now, though, it's not worth it to find out with a high draft pick. I'm letting him sit until someone else takes him.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers - Beware of postseason heroics ballooning a player's fantasy draft position. It's human nature to remember the last thing we saw from every player, and the last thing we saw from Santonio was him winning the Super Bowl MVP. We had him ranked ahead of plenty of guys who have established 90-catch, 1,300-yard potential, yet, he's never caught more than 55 passes or gained more than 942 yards. That's not right. He has potential to be a stud, sure, but the Steelers are a running-and-defense team. I'd deal with Holmes as a WR3, and nothing more. Odds are someone is going to take him as their second wideout. Let them.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers - He piled up career-year stats with Jeff Garcia -- and a 10-catch, 138-yard game with Brian Griese when the Bucs threw the ball 67 times. Bryant has talent, but we've seen enough of his fickle nature to question whether or not last year was an aberration. This year, the Bucs will be sifting through Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown and Josh Freeman as they transition to a new era. I know Garcia isn't John Elway, but he's a damn solid quarterback. The Bucs won't have good quarterback play this season. Gimme Santana Moss, Laveranues Coles or Hines Ward instead of Bryant.


Friday: We'll do one post combining tight ends and defense/special teams units. We will not be covering kickers. I just don't have the time nor the inclination to waste valuable posting space on those unpredictable and unwanted entities.