Sources: Halladay Trade Won't Come Easy; Phillies May Be In Lead

Because of the many factors involved in a possible trade of Roy Halladay, it's "50-50 they trade him, maybe less," a person familiar with the Blue Jays front office told FanHouse.

Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi has said he will listen to offers for Halladay, his ace right-hander. But because Halladay is signed through 2010, any trade partner must have a deep farm system, the payroll flexibility to afford Halladay and expectations to contend this year and next.

Another source familiar with the issue said he believed the "Phillies are the leaders at this point."

Philadelphia has been searching for a front-end starter for most of the season, and pairing Halladay with Cole Hamels atop the rotation to go with the potent Phils offense could make them the NL favorites.

A scout who has seen the Phillies' system said they have the players to land Halladay "if they wanted to," adding that they have "plenty of bullets" in the minors. But it would take quite a package to land Halladay, who since the start of the 2006 season is tops in the league in wins, winning percentage and complete games, is second in innings pitched (one fewer than CC Sabathia) and strikeout/walk ratio and is third in ERA.

"I don't think J.P. is in a hurry to trade him," the first source said.

"If people want the guy, [the Jays] want your best guys. ... You're going to have to ante up. At the end of the day, we'll see who puts up or shuts up."

The source said "it's almost got to be like a [Erik] Bedard deal [or] Dan Haren."

That means at least a couple of young players who are ready for the majors. And if Toronto is building for the longer term, it would be looking for a shortstop, third baseman and pitching.

Seattle gave up outfielder Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Bedard. Arizona traded outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham, infielder Chris Carter, and lefties Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith to Oakland for Haren.

Further complicating the matter is the contract status of Halladay, 32. He hasn't said whether he would require a contract extension to waive his full no-trade clause – and a team that gives up a lot for him might want to sign Halladay to an extension. Either would require a negotiating window once the trade is in place.

"I want to stay, but I think it's a situation you have to evaluate," Halladay said before Tuesday night's game against Tampa Bay. "I'm really not at that situation just yet. If something does come up, you weigh your options at that point. I hate to put the cart in front of the horse and start saying 'Do I want to do that? I think you just evaluate the situations when they come."

Toronto, too, could decide it has a chance to contend in 2010 -- with the nucleus of a decent offense in place and pitching help coming from the disabled list -- and thus keep Halladay.

The source used the analogy of selling a house to explain Ricciardi's approach to trading Halladay.

"J.P. has a house," he said. "He doesn't need one. But if there's a great deal, and someone offers him a $1 million house for $200,000, he'll try that.

"I think a lot has to go right and fit for this to happen."