From the Windup: Race for Ages in East?

From the Windup is Matt Snyder's extended look at some aspect of America's pastime each Thursday.

As Major League Baseball launches into the second half of their season Thursday night, there is one playoff race that should intrigue and excite fans no matter where their allegiances may lie. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays may just be the best three teams in the American League (for my money, they are). Yet, all three reside in the AL East, which means only two can make the playoffs.

As things currently stand, both the Red Sox and the Yankees would make the playoffs, with last year's AL champs being left out in the cold. In fact, the Rays trail the Rangers in the wild-card standings as well. Still, the division sports three of the top nine teams in baseball at the All-Star break, judging strictly on wins and losses. If things change, it will be for the better, as both the Rays and Yankees have endured bad stretches that aren't in danger of cropping up again.

Will this be the best division ever? That depends on how you want to define the best division. The 2005 NL East had no teams below .500. That's right, the Washington Nationals finished 81-81, yet still finished in fifth place (they just can't buy a break, can they?). Last season, two divisions (the NL Central and AL East) had a team finish in fourth place with a 86-76 record. The 2001 AL West had two teams combine for a whopping 218 wins (the Mariners won 116 and the A's won 102). If we look just at the trio atop the AL East, though, it's easy to foresee a run at history.

In the wild-card era (beginning in 1995), the best three-team race in a division was the AL West in 2002. The Seattle Mariners finished 93-69, which was good enough for third place -- six games behind the Anaheim Angels for the wild card and 10 out of the division title (the Oakland A's went 103-59). That's three teams who averaged 98.3 wins for the season, which is quite the lofty perch. Two other teams in the wild-card era won 90 games and finished third place in their division (the '06 White Sox were 90-72 and the '02 Dodgers were 92-70).

At their current pace, the Red Sox would take the division and -- not surprisingly -- the best overall record in the American League at 99-63. The Yankees would take the wild card with a record of 94-68 and the Rays would go home with an 87-75 record. In this case, the division wouldn't look any different than a pretty decent sized group of divisions in the late-'90s.

But the Rays have put their early-season woes behind them and are ready for a huge second half. Since breaking a five-game losing streak on May 29, the Rays have gone 25-14. They still need to kick the losing streaks, because they've had stretches of three straight and four straight during that 25-14 span. If you look at the talent the Rays possess, though, improvement is coming in several areas. Only Jason Bartlett is hitting above his head -- and you could argue Ben Zobrist is, but he's never really gotten a chance to play regularly. B.J. Upton and Pat Burrell, on the other hand, have drastically underachieved and figure to have big second halfs. Dioner Navarro can swing the bat better as well. On the hill, no starter has been lights out. If Scott Kazmir pitches back to form and David Price develops as most expect, they are stacked. The bullpen could also fall into place in front of promising new closer J.P. Howell, assuming the Rays don't stick with the committee approach. Regardless, the 'pen is strong again. There is little doubt in my mind that they'll find a way to win close to 95 games.

The Yankees also battled a slow start, but it was much more short-lived. Since their win in Toronto on May 13 -- which kick-started a nine-game winning streak -- the Yankees have gone 36-20. They've done so without a dominant CC Sabathia, a decent fifth starter or a hot A-Rod. Phil Hughes has performed beautifully since becoming the setup man for Mariano Rivera and the trickle-down effect has improved the entire bullpen. They are, as I said above, on pace for 94 wins, but it's hard to see how they don't improve upon that.

The Red Sox? They aren't going anywhere. They have cruised through the first half, through Jon Lester's bad spells and through two-month disappearing act by Big Papi. Mike Lowell has battled injury and Dice-K has been simply awful. Yet, they are on pace for 99 victories, due to the Herculean efforts of Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury and a host of others. No one is playing obscenely out of his mind. The pitching is so deep that uber-prospect Clay Buchholz is relegated to toying with Triple-A hitters (though he does have a spot start Friday in Toronto). The defense and bullpen are incredibly strong. And, in addition to everything else, they own the Bronx Bombers. The Red Sox are 8-0 against the Yankees. Talk about a mental edge over their biggest rival. If we peered into a crystal ball just six years ago we'd have thought this was a joke of epic proportions. The Red Sox own the Yankees? What? It's no joke. The Red Sox are going to win 100 games for the first time since 1946 and glide into the playoffs. Again.

All told, even if the teams don't become the winningest divisional trio in the wild-card era, they certainly are the most stacked group. With all due respect to those 2002 AL West teams, the star power and sheer excitement the AL East will generate in 2009 can not be matched in recent history. Between the three teams, I count 31 All-Stars, and there are guys like Upton, Lester, A.J. Burnett, James Shields and Matt Garza who have yet to make it, but will someday soon. There are four MVPs and a Cy Young winner in the group. You have premier base-stealing, glovework, power hitting and power pitching all contained in the division. The best closer of all-time (Rivera) and arguably the best closer today (Jonathan Papelbon) pitch here. There is nothing these three teams don't collectively possess. And one of them won't be playing in the second week of October.

Who is going to take the division? And, almost more importantly, who wins the wild card -- leaving the third-best American League team in the playoff dark?

Unfortunately, for the fans who like the small-market/underdog types, I think the Rays are getting left out in the cold with something like 94 wins. The Yankees and Red Sox will be partying all the way to the ALCS like it's 2004. We're looking at another seven-round slobber-knocker.

I could easily be wrong, though, because there is plenty of baseball left to play. It begins Friday, when the Yanks host Detroit, Boston visits the Blue Jays and the Rays go to Kansas City. The Red Sox and Yankees play 10 more times. The Yankees and Rays face off 10 more times and the Red Sox square off with the Rays eight more times.

Stay tuned, I know I will.