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The Oregonian's Jason Quick reports the Blazers will sign 33-year-old point guard Andre Miller to a deal. The terms look like $22 million over three years, with only the first two guaranteed. By the numbers, it's a good deal for Portland and Miller -- the PG wasn't getting more elsewhere, and the Blazers get away with a good playmaker at a fair rate for a short time.But the opportunity cost of signing Miller is quite high for the Blazers.
Prior to bringing Miller aboard, Portland was one of desperately few teams with extant cap space. Cap space is a tricky resource, with scarcity having a disparately enormous effect on its value. If a dozen teams have cap space, well, then it's not really worth too much. But when no one has it, everyone needs it. It's a market in and of itself, really, and Memphis has quite honestly done alright for itself by serving as the league's trade facilitator. (Or perhaps I should say, Memphis would do well for itself if it had, you know, a cogent plan.)
In facilitating a Carlos Boozer trade, Portland could have ended up with a good cast-off -- a Kirk Hinrich or Udonis Haslem or whatnot. That's gone now. It probably won't matter: Miller is better and cheaper than Hinrich (though Miller doesn't fit team needs -- defense -- as well). But it seems plausible that another, more lustrous piece could have come available in the next, oh, seven months.
Further, a host of good restricted free agents remain available. Ramon Sessions. David Lee. Marvin Williams. Sessions's value won't be set until he signs an offer sheet. Lee is at the mercy of the Knicks at this point. Williams should have gotten a deal worked out by now. He is a great small forward prospect. Portland could be in play for any of the three it wants, but that's gone now. It will remain to be seen whether that's a mistake or not.
The key point here is not that Portland screwed up, because again, Miller is good and the deal is fair. I just implore fans to understand Portland's costs in this deal will be far greater than $22 million. The Blazers are taking the sure thing over the chance for something spectacular.
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