Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Part 2

In continuing with our three-part series on ADP analysis, today we look at the second method in which average draft position can be utilized to uncover values come draft day -- trend analysis.

This approach involves following a sequence of successive ADP charts over a span of time, usually a couple of months (or anteing up for a premium service that tracks more detailed mock draft data), and following the trends. Trends in ADP are great indicators of who is moving up or down on depth charts, which players have made breakthroughs in camp, and most of all, who got dinged up in camp -- information that can be daunting to follow on a player-by-player basis.

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Let's take a look at the top 10 players whose ADPs are trending up and the players whose values are plummeting the fastest over past two weeks. Keep in mind this data is dynamic, so players' ADP values will continue to move right up until your draft day. It is important to continue to monitor, and we will keep you up to date as well. For each player, we will provide the amount of their percentage increase or decrease as well as a brief note as to the probable reason their values are in a state of flux. This information gives great insight into who is worth keeping a close eye on going into the draft.

Moving On Up

Derrick Mason (+121%) - Mason's value, as expected, is skyrocketing simply due to the fact that he announced his retirement and subsequently returned to the league. By draft day his value should be back in its rightful position.

Ray Rice (+62%) - Rice started with the first team in the Ravens' preseason opener and hauled in a 34-yard reception. Willis McGahee came in later, making Rice look like a potential starter, or at the very least a committee guy with a solid workload.

Josh Morgan (+24%) - With first-round pick Michael Crabtree still unsigned, Josh Morgan appears to have a good shot at the No. 1 WR slot in San Francisco. Even if/when Crabtree does sign, Morgan seems to have solidified his spot in the offense and the 49ers expect him to play a larger role moving forward.

Julius Jones (+24%) - Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has everybody expecting a heavy reliance on the ground game and Julius Jones looks to benefit, as does T.J. Duckett. Jones was getting drafted pretty low for a starter, so this upward move is a no-brainer. He still sits at only about No. 87, so expect him to keep moving up, but don't expect a miracle season either. He's just a good RB3.

Patrick Crayton (+15%) - Crayton receives the role "collateral damage recovery specialist" from the Terrell Owens departure. Roy WIlliams suffered a wrist injury, making Crayton all that much more important. Plus, Miles Austin, who was expected to be the Cowboys' No. 3, looks to be losing the spot to Sam Hurd, so this only helps Crayton in the numbers department as well.

Seattle Seahawks (+14%) - With a new defensive coordinator in Gus Bradley and rookie star linebacker Aaron Curry, the Seahawks have a lot of people expecting strides this season after disappointing last year.

Randy Moss (+11%) - I suspect the Randy Moss improvement is more tied to the optimistic outlook regarding Brady's health than anything directly related to Moss.

Matt Stover (+9%) - This is a pointless entry. Stover has not been in camp, but news came out that he has been kicking the ball in the Bahamas should the Ravens need him in a pinch. His ADP is still above No. 200.

Tom Brady (+9%) - Brady looked good in his first preseason game, showing no signs of injury or fear. Moreover, the offensive line hardly let anyone near him, so confidence is up in Camp Brady.

Sinking On Down

Michael Crabtree (-36%) - Crabtree remains unsigned and every day the offense progresses without him. Josh Morgan looks like the real value on this WR corps.

Mark Clayton (-33%) - Mark Clayton will miss a portion of the preseason and maybe more after suffering a hamstring injury.

Brian Westbrook (-17%) - Eagles' second-round draft pick LeSean McCoy has looked great in camp and Westbrook is coming off surgery, so owners are getting cold feet if this is finally the year for a Westbrook drop-off in production.

Tony Romo (-16%) - Romo seems to be suffering due to Terrell Owens' departure and his inability to stay out of the media for stupid celebrity crap. He recently broke up with his girlfriend Jessica Simpson, which I guess is a distraction, but who really cares.

Chris Wells (-13%) - Beanie Wells suffered an ankle injury which continues to linger. He is back participating in individual drills, but this injury definitely hurt his chances at starting come opening day. Tim Hightower has also played well in his absence.

Miles Austin (-13%) - As mentioned above, Miles Austin seems to be losing the No. 3 WR spot in Dallas to Sam Hurd.

Knowshown Moreno (-12%) - Moreno limped off the field after three carries in the Broncos' preseason opener. He is expected to be ready for the season opener, but this drop is definitely related to the uncertainty surrounding the injury.

Chris Johnson (-8%) - With competition from LenDale White and Javon Ringer, Chris Johnson's workload may be reduced..

Michael Turner (-8%) - People keep trying to argue that Turner carried the ball too much last season and that he will get hurt this year or suffer a decline. Alternatively, LaDainian Tomlinson's value is quietly climbing as owners are going back to the old reliable star rather than spending their first-round pick on a possible one-season hit like Michael Turner.

Byron Leftwich (-8%) - This one is plain weird. Leftwich could be leading the race for the starting quarterback gig in Tampa Bay, so the fact that his value is dropping seems bizarre.