The Vexing Jammal Brown Situation

It's not often that a 29-year-old, two-time Pro Bowl left tackle hits free agency, but that might happen with Jammal Brown, the New Orleans Saints' bookend. That decision, however, isn't as clear cut as some personnel situations can be. No, like a well-written book or film that weaves a story so complex the plot's end is never obvious until it arrives, there are a few details to the Jammal Brown Situation that have fans in suspense.

Let's start with the present: Brown is currently on the shelf after having surgery Thursday for a sports hernia. It's possible he can recover on the short end of the injury's typical timeframe (three to six weeks), which would have him healthy for the season opener, but it's more likely the team plays it safe and makes sure this thing doesn't linger into the playoff race. He has yet to play 16 games in a year, this injury could push that streak to five seasons. That's certainly not a positive for a player who before he was even drafted in 2005 was dealing with a condition in his knees that had a lot of teams and medical experts predicting a short career.

In his place, Jermon Bushrod, a fourth-round pick in 2007, started at left tackle in Saturday night's preseason game against the Houston Texans, and surprisingly held his own against Mario Williams. It was obviously an encouraging sign, even with the typical preseason caveats, for a third-string tackle (Brown's backup, Zach Strief, is sidelined for time being).

A lot of teams would die for a solid starting five on the line, let alone depth that goes two or three deep especially at tackle. But the Saints have made the offensive line a focus, dedicating five picks in Sean Payton's first three years to the unit. If Bushrod's performance against Williams proves not to be a complete anomaly, he and Strief, who has played well filling in for Brown in the past, could be enough to keep the Saints from paying ridiculous money to Brown if he hits the completely open market, especially given Brown's weaknesses (inconsistency, lots of penalties, that injury thing).

That's a big if, though. Under normal circumstances, Brown would be an unrestricted free agent when his contract ends after this year. But the CBA drama dictates that if a new agreement is not reached, players will need six seasons instead of four to qualify for unrestricted free agency. Unfortunately enough for Brown, this will be his fifth season, meaning if no labor deal is reached -- and there's certainly not much to be optimistic about at this point -- Brown will only be a restricted free agent.

That would mean a huge difference money wise, as Brown would almost certainly be the best player available at a premium position. Tackles are always given outsized contracts because they're so important and scarce on the market, and a cursory look at 2010's potential free agents doesn't produce much competition for a tackle who has the age, skill, and resume personnel people would drool over. Those weaknesses wouldn't stop anyone from giving Brown a ton of money, but they're still very real concerns. It's possible that a team could even conceivably give Brown a large contract as a restricted free agent and test the Saints' bond with the former first-rounder.

If Brown becomes an unrestricted free agent, the question is do you overpay to keep a talented player with injury issues at a premium position even though you have above average depth behind him? It's never good to let talent walk, especially on the line, but there are other aspects that weigh into that decision.

But what more likely happens is that the NFL and NFLPA won't reach an agreement on time and that Brown will become a restricted free agent, making the Saints' decision much, much easier. They'll give him the highest tender possible and take the compensatory draft picks if another team wants him, which probably won't happen. They sign Brown to a palatable short-term deal (two or three years) that is a bargain compared to what he could get on the market, sparing them from potential cap trouble if Brown can't physically last a long contract, and let him walk when that deal ends.

Still, though, there's an awful lot up in the air to feel confident about that prediction at this time. For starters, Brown needs to get on the field and work on improving from a 2008 season that was his worst as a pro.