Debate in the Paint: Fear the Raptors

Every Tuesday this offseason, two of our NBA experts will go at it with a Debate in the Paint. This week, the topic is the Toronto Raptors, and whether they are moving toward being contenders in the East.

The Raptors have been the summer's most active team, with Bryan Colangelo moving from high-profile moves like Jason Kapono-for-Reggie Evans to trade-Tourette's yawners like Marcus Banks-for-Matt Carroll. (That last one is still a rumor.) As of today, Toronto will begin 2009-10 with exactly three players who began last season on the roster (Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon).

But not all change is good change. Is this change good change? In my opinion, yes ... and it will vault Toronto toward the East's upper strata.

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Toronto had myriad problems in 2008-09, not the least of which was rebounding and interior defense. For those reasons, the acquisitions of Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson matter as much as the Hedo Turkoglu signing. Hedo will positively augment a Raptors attack that suffered from predictability and inconsistency (a rare but devastating combo), but Evans -- one of the best rebounding monsters of this era of basketball -- and A.J. should do heaps of good near the rim.

Bosh is actually a stellar rebounder at the power forward spot. But Bargnani ... he's awful. Bargnani's three seasons each show up in among the eight worst offensive rebounding seasons for 7-foot players in basketball history. Sure, Dirk Nowitzki shows up there frequently too ... but Dirk can hit the defensive glass. But Bargnani repeatedly shows up among the worst 7-foot defensive rebounders, too. Last season, the only 7-footers with worst defensive rebounding rates than Bargs were Pacer teammates Rasho Nesterovic and Roy Hibbert, who happened to play with rebound-soaking Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy.

That's why Evans and Johnson are so important. Reggie eternally finishes among the top 20 defensive rebounders in the league, and even higher in offensive rebounding. Amir isn't quite so good on the defensive boards, but he excels on the offensive glass. Between Evans and Johnson, the Raps suddenly have a wealth of frontline options to help in rebounding. They both happen to be solid defenders as well, and you can see either fitting alongside either Bosh or Bargnani inasmuch that neither requires touches on offense.

The other major issue for the Raptors last season, one which I touched on briefly above, is the lack of offensive options. Jose Calderon is the primary creator here, and should remain so. But Hedo provides another avenue into the offense. When a forward can initiate the offense from behind the arc, the floor will spread and Bosh will find his cushion extended. Things were not easy for Bosh last season ... and Hedo, while perhaps wasting a few too many possessions on iffy shots and turnovers, will be a boon. Bosh needed another creator to be most effective, and Colangelo got him one. Bargnani has a deadly trigger, but he needs to be fed to thrive. Hedo will feed him.

There's also the issue of DeMar DeRozan, one of the 2009-10 rookies most likely to face a daunting learning curve. Toronto will miss Anthony Parker most on the defensive end, where DeRozan doesn't project to be good for a while (if ever). But given that the Raps have a number of high-usage players in place, DeMar can take it easy on offense and use his unbelievable athleticism to get buckets in transition or during the bedlam of broken plays. (Think early Andre Iguodala.) Jay Triano will give DeRozan and the Raps every opportunity to run, and I think that can help DeMar get through the season in tact.

The Raps aren't worthy of challenging the East's top three until we see how Triano puts the squad together. But if we're picking potential usurpers in the East, I'd like to peg myself to Toronto early on. There's a long way up the mountain to go, but I think the Raptors can make the haul.