Snap Judgments on Exhibition Games Are Wrong Way to Go

I was talking last week to a longtime NFL scout whose opinion I respect as much as anyone I've known in my 25 years of covering the NFL. He told he believed Mark Sanchez would have a rough time as a rookie but that Matthew Stafford would develop into a star. That went against my own opinion -- I liked Sanchez coming out of USC but wondered about Stafford, who had all the physical tools at Georgia, yet made what I thought were a lot of bad decisions

So far, both have been pretty impressive, especially Sanchez, who has been named the Jets' starter while Stafford will probably sit at the beginning of the regular season behind Daunte Culpepper.

Against the Giants Saturday night, Sanchez stood in against one of the NFL's best pass rushes and did more than hold his own. Carl Banks, the former Giants linebacker, said on the Giants' telecast of the game -- there was one for each team in the New York area -- that what he liked was that, even under pressure, Sanchez looked for his receivers instead of watching the rushers, something even veteran quarterbacks often don't do.

But in the end ...

These are only friendlies. Neither team was showing its full complement of tricks. Starters with minor injuries were held out. And even though the third exhibition is the one where starters play the longest, both the Giants and Jets had mixed combinations of teams on the field for much of the game.

So who knows what might have happened if this had been a real game -- on the other side, Hakeem Nicks, the Giants' first-round pick, had six catches for 144 yards and two TDs. Although, as media wit Mike Florio pointed out, much of his work came against "future members of the UFL's New York Sentinels.''

Bottom line? Don't pay too much attention to preseason games.

Confession? My opinions have changed on who will do what this season because of them, although they may change back.

Before training camp, I thought New England was an easy choice in the AFC. Watching them Friday night against Washington, I thought a little less of them. Not because Tom Brady injured his shoulder -- despite Bill Belichick's silence, it looks like he'll be OK -- but because I didn't like what looked like disarray in the secondary. Now I think I might like Pittsburgh more, although the Steelers face the problem of winning twice in a row, something that rarely happens.

In the NFC, I liked the Giants and Eagles. Now I like them less -- the Giants because their young receivers don't seem to have gotten it yet; the Eagles because they lost middle linebacker Stuart Bradley, a very important part of their defense. I like Dallas a little more, even though Tony Romo threw a typically awful Tony Romo interception Saturday night against the 49ers, but I don't like Minnesota -- I think Brett Favre won't last the season and his presence is a discontent element no matter what the Vikings party line might say.

But it really comes down to this: everyone is vanilla in preseason. Yes, there are trick plays. But much of the time, teams use them to make opponents think they'll use them when the real season starts. Maybe they will ... in November or December, when what they've done in exhibitions is past them. Meanwhile, they've got better stuff saved up for September and October.

A stat: Counting a 2-1 record this season, New England is 9-14 in exhibitions since 2004. In games that count, the Patriots are 71-20.

So yes, friendlies can be fun. Maybe in a Sanchez or a Stafford, you can see the future. Maybe you can see it in a Hakeem Nicks.

But they usually don't mean much for the present.