Pickin' On the Big Ten, Week 1

Every Thursday, Pickin' On the Big Ten previews the upcoming weekend's action in The Conference Everybody Loves to Hate.

Oh, it's here. It's finally, finally, finally here. No more depth-chart speculation, no more arguing about who is the best SAM in the conference, and only one more week until the game that will either restore the Big Ten's swagger or send it sobbing into the bathroom. The teams are ready, the stadiums are ready (well, except for Minnesota's), the cheerleaders and bands are ready, the vast charcoal forests of northern Michigan have been shaved to the ground, the beer cows of Wisconsin have been "milked" into millions of brown glass bottles ... it's time for some football, y'all.

So, grab a beverage, throw some cheddarwurst on the grill, and let's take a look at this weekend's action-packed slate of games, shall we?

Okay, who am I trying to kid, besides myself? You know and I know that the opening week schedule is always full of games you wouldn't be watching if it hadn't been almost nine months since you saw any college football. With one exception, maybe two, these games are such foregone conclusions that a trained baboon could pick them. It wouldn't even have to be a particularly smart baboon. Still, this weekend's games will answer many of the lingering questions from the offseason, so let's get right down to it.

ILLINOIS vs. MISSOURI (@ St. Louis)

This, by the way, would be the one definite exception to the Baboon Rule above. So let me deal with this game before I turn things over to Mr. Tibbles, okay?

Right now, these are both the Show Me States. Missouri is because, first of all, Missouri is always the Show Me State, and second of all, because they now have to try to fend for themselves in an improving Big 12 North without the electric combination of Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin. Illinois is the Show Me State this year because it's Juice Williams' senior year and the Big Ten might be a little more up for grabs than usual.

It would be wrong to assume that Moo Moo Mizzou is set to take a giant leap backwards this year. Blaine Gabbert, the Tigers' new quarterback, was highly sought after as a recruit. Unlike his predecessor, he is not short. The Illinois secondary has plenty of experience, but any secondary that loses Vontae Davis gets at least a little bit worse by default. The Illini pass-slappers will be tested early and often, establishing a theme for the season.

Will Illinois be able to keep up? Missouri returns ten starters on defense, but last season's defense was a weak one in a conference which didn't exactly distinguish itself defensively. (Sean Weatherspoon excepted, of course.) I'd feel a little more confident if Illinois had more of a running game, but I think the Illini can keep pace with the Tigers and have just enough more on defense to take this game.

IT'S NOW OR NEVER	38
ARE YOU THROWIN' SOME TONIGHT?	28

EASTERN KENTUCKY @ INDIANA

For Indiana, this game is sort of like dating the nerdy friend of the person you really want to date. Eastern Kentucky was the last school new Purdue coach Danny Hope was at, so playing them early in the season might give the Hoosiers a slight glimpse of what this year's battle for the Old Oaken Bucket will be like.

Eastern Kentucky is a pass-oriented team, which won't help IU determine if their laughable run defense from last season is gone or still remains. Bill Lynch has said that he wants to move the Hoosiers to a more run-based offense, which could have something to do with the lack of experienced pass-catchers on his roster. Kellen Lewis is gone, of course, while Ray Fisher has been converted to a cornerback.

This won't be the blowout Indiana faithful would like to see as the new IU rushing game tries to find its way, but the Hoosiers should prevail against a lower-division opponent.

WE DON'T KNOW DANNY	17
WE DON'T KNOW HOPE	24

NORTHERN IOWA @ IOWA

Jewel Hampton wasn't going to play much beyond the second quarter of this one anyway.

Like I said on Tuesday, losing Hampton hurts, but it probably isn't the aHawkolyptic event some are painting it to be. That being said, Northern Iowa could be just the team to pants the Hawkeyes -- not in the sense of beating them, but in the sense of exposing their vulnerabilities. The Panthers have been to the 1-AA Football Championship Subdivision playoffs in five of coach Mark Farley's eight seasons, reaching the finals once and being eliminated by the eventual champion two other times. Unlike the Hawkeyes, the Panthers have plenty of experience at running back and will probably go right at Iowa's revamped defensive line.

Of course, there's not much of a chance that Northern Iowa's offensive line, good as it is, can match up against the Hawks for very long. I think this game will be closer than Kirk Ferentz wants at the half, leading to lots of angsty gum-chewing in the third quarter, but eventually Ricky Stanzi will take over this game.

NORTH END OF I-380	10
SOUTH END OF I-380	45

Know Your Non-Conference Tomato Can: Northern Iowa

Located on the Cedar Falls side of the small Waterloo/Cedar Falls metropolitan area of northeastern Iowa, the University of Northern Iowa began as a teacher-training institute and still retains teacher education as one of its primary focuses. UNI now enrolls nearly 13,000 students and is one of only a handful of schools to offer the Doctor of Industrial Technology degree.

UNI's best known alumnus, at least to sports fans, is two-time NFL MVP and razor antagonist Kurt Warner, who chose Northern Iowa after former Iowa head coach Hayden Fry offered a scholarship to current NFL Network host Paul Burmeister instead of Warner. The school has also produced many a journeyman NFL player, along with Entertainment Tonight cohost Mark Steines and United States Senator Chuck Grassley.

Robert James Waller is a former UNI basketball player and marketing professor who wrote the best-selling novel The Bridges of Madison County. Waller's books are popular with readers but get no love from critics, with the notoriously dyspeptic Joe Queenan calling him "the biggest dips**t in the history of American letters." I have no idea if this bit of criticism hurt Waller's feelings, but if it did, he probably dried his tears with a $100 bill.

WESTERN MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN

It's never a good sign when your coach is in tears mere days before the season opener, and there were already some things that weren't very good signs.

This game is the most important one Rich Rodriguez will coach all season, because it's going to set the tone for more than just week 2 or the rest of the season. Obviously, there's nothing the Wolverines can do on the field to end the investigation or change its findings, but how the Michigan administration reacts to it is still up in the air.

University president Mary Sue Coleman was in office when the Ed Martin scandal broke and famously said, "I am determined that nothing like this will ever happen again at Michigan." That doesn't bode well for RichRod. It's possible that he's doomed even if he wins ten games this year. He's certainly doomed, however, if he doesn't get the Wolverines back to a bowl game. Michigan isn't going to stand for all this fooferaw and another losing season.

He could have a better opponent to try to silence his critics. Western Michigan got back on track last year, winding up in the Texas Bowl, which is soon to be a Big Ten property. They like to pass and have a pretty good quarterback in Tim Hiller. Defense, however, is a huge iffy spot for the Broncos, who return only three starters from a mid-pack unit. If Rodriguez's modus operandi is still in effect and the off-the-field issues aren't too great of a distraction, Michigan should be able to walk the Broncos.

SLOUCHING TOWARDS KALAMAZOO	17
BOHICA	21

MONTANA STATE @ MICHIGAN STATE

Meanwhile, up the road a piece, there's another ripple effect from the Jewel Hampton injury. With most people lowering their expectations of the Hawkeyes, it'll be up to Mark Dantonio to show that Sparty isn't Sparty any more by putting together back-to-back great seasons. There are many, many questions about the Spartan offense, like "will they have one?", but as with Iowa this team stands on the shoulders of its defense.

And what a defense it is. Greg Jones is the best linebacker Sparty has had in a long time, and he's just one of many playmakers on the Michigan State defense. Montana State also has a solid defense but many new players on offense. This is the first time ever that Michigan State has played an FCS opponent; the outcome of this game will not leave them clamoring for more.

YEAH, BUT OUR SKIING'S BETTER	7
THAT'S NOT SAYING MUCH	38

MINNESOTA @ SYRACUSE

With TCF Bank Stadium (the conference's first title-sponsored football venue) still a week away from opening, the Gophers find themselves in a strange place. No, I don't mean Syracuse, though that is where they'll find themselves. I mean playing in someone else's domed stadium against a first year head coach nobody knows much about, facing a quarterback who played college basketball last season for a different school.

Tim Brewster has stated that he wants the Gophers to get back to their power running roots. This makes perfect sense, since he has one of the conference's best wide receivers and one of its most accurate and experienced quarterbacks. Does he not realize that he has the same problem Glen Mason had: a defense that seems mostly like an afterthought?

Small matter. Doug Marrone can't stop the Cuse's Robinsonian rot in a single season, though this might be more of a game than the Gophers are hoping for.

TIMO SABE	27
MARRONE RANGER	14

TOWSON @ NORTHWESTERN

Ick.

INSERT BETTER OPPONENT HERE	0
YOU'D THINK WE'D KNOW BETTER	56

NAVY @ OHIO STATE

If I'm an Ohio State fan, this just is not the game I want to see as my squad's week-before-USC tuneup. Not that there's really any doubt about how the game will turn out; it's just that facing Navy and its "death before passing" offense isn't going to tell me very much about my team. Not only that, but the Navy defense will have significant trouble even slowing down Terrelle Pryor, let alone stopping him. This game will give me absolutely no idea of how my team is going to match up against SC next week. And right now, that's what I really want to know.

Navy's eccentricity should keep the Buckeye defenders back on their heels for a half or so, but Terrelle Pryor and the rest of the offense won't have any trouble outscoring Navy. In fact, I'm guessing that Pryor has such a huge day that, come Wednesday or so, we'll all be sick of hearing about him as a potential Heisman spoiler.

IN THE NAVY	6
T-O-SU	42

AKRON @ PENN STATE

Not only did I drink the Spread HD Kool-Aid last year, I banged my glass on the table and asked for a second helping. I should have known when the playcalling turned a little too conservative against Ohio State. Actually, I should have known when the Nits struggled against Purdue, a team whose defense couldn't stop water from flowing uphill. Why was I so easily persuaded? Because Penn State played a bunch of games like this one.

Sure is nice to see Sean Lee back, though.

ZIPS	3
ZAP!	54

TOLEDO @ PURDUE

This, then, is where it starts for Danny Hope, facing another team breaking in a new head coach. The new rocket man is Tim Beckman, formerly Mike Gundy's defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State.

Of all the games in this opening weekend, this one has the strongest "anything can happen" vibe surrounding it. No one really knows what to expect from Purdue, though it's known that Danny Hope favors an aggressive offensive scheme and puts a high value on quickness.

Purdue's real problems last season were on defense, however. Toledo will be with out its leading rusher Morgan Williams, which should mitigate the Boilers' squishiness somewhat. I don't really know if Purdue is going to make a dramatic turnaround, or score a lot of points, or anything like that. Really, this is the most interesting game of the weekend to me, just for those reasons.

GLASS CITY GLADIATORS	16
YOU LOOK FAMILIAR, COACH	20

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ WISCONSIN

The theme for Wisconsin this year is, or at least had better be, discipline. Last year even the coach staff frequently acted like a bunch of third-graders who had to stay in from afternoon recess. That led Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez to send his protege Bret Bielema a rather unsubtle message: It's one thing to get beat, but it's something else entirely to lose because you were throwing a hissy fit on the sidelines.

In fact, the whole just seemed to me like they had their minds on something other than football last season. I almost signed them up for a 30-day trial of one of those informercial pills that's supposed to help you think more clearly.

Right. The game. Maybe I need those pills too, huh?

Wisconsin is inexperienced at most of the offensive skill positions but has enough of a defense to offset that somewhat. Northern Illinois has come a long way from the days when the Huskies were every Big Ten team's homecoming date. Jerry Kill enters his second season in DeKalb off a trip to the Independence Bowl last year (they lost). Kill has been successful everywhere he's been.

That's potentially a problem for Bielema, because winning this game in a squeaker isn't going to help him at all. Ideally, his faith in quarterback Scott Tolzien and running back Zach Brown will be rewarded with breakout performances. More likely, it'll be rewarded with non-disastrous performances. That'll be good enough for now, but Bielema and the Badgers are going to have to blow somebody up to win back some of their eroding fan support.

ON THE RISE	10
DESTINATION UNKNOWN	13

NEXT WEEK'S GAMES

Illinois State @ Illinois: Tecmo Bowl with a concession stand
Western Michigan @ Indiana: Potential season-ruiner for IU
Iowa @ Iowa State: I don't trust Paul Rhoads; he seems sneaky
Notre Dame @ Michigan: The Battle of Who Could Care Less
Central Michigan @ Michigan State: Tough test for MSU's D
Air Force @ Minnesota: Hello, TCF Bank Stadium!
Eastern Michigan @ Northwestern: Lick the frosting off your fingers, Wildcats
USC @ Ohio State: Somebody's season basically ends here
Syracuse @ Penn State: Conference opener in Bizarro Big East
Purdue @ Oregon: This will end badly for the Boilers
Fresno State @ Wisconsin: Doesn't have the clout it would have had a couple years ago