Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Part 3

In continuing with our three-part series on ADP analysis (check here for Part 1 and Part 2), today we look at the third and final method in which average draft position can be utilized to uncover values come draft day -- the value method.

This so-called value method involves more of an active draft approach as opposed to simply a way of looking at the data in advance. By showing up to your draft with an up-to-date ADP chart, you can simply compare who is on the board when your draft position arises and select the best ADP bang for your buck at that spot. For example, say you are up with the 28th pick and a player with an ADP of 19 is still on the board, snatch him up. It's a no-brainer. Whether this player is on your preconceived list of players or not, you select him because he offers good value. It helps takes the emotion out of the game and this systematic approach can often lead to a great draft.

---

---

By now, I suspect you are already asking questions as to the validity of this approach and rightly so. See, this approach should be used as more of an overlay than as a fail-safe tactic in every round. There are many times when it makes sense to override this ADP value approach, most obviously when you need to fill a certain positional need or you simply have a feeling a player will break out, but generally speaking, it's a good thing to watch ADPs for good values as you work through your draft for a number of reasons.

First, this approach will help you from wedding yourself too strictly to a positional strategy. Often times, fantasy football players come into the draft dead set on a certain approach, for instance the old play of drafting running backs in the first two rounds. By sticking to the more objective value approach, this will help you stray from this draft strategy in the event that the better players get snatched up at the positions you are seeking. It's better to deviate from the preconceived strategy in favor of obtaining elite players than to sacrificing quality in favor of the strategy. This year in particular, high quality running backs are falling to the third and fourth round, so it's very helpful to keep an eye on ADPs to make the right call and grab a top position player when they are on the cheap.

The next reason demonstrates the real value of this ADP value approach and it has to do with selecting your sleepers. We all know that part of the fun of fantasy football is picking out the needles from the hay, but timing these pickups is key. By keeping an eye on your ADP chart, you protect yourself from wasting too early a pick on a long-shot that will probably be available long after your gut tells you to snatch them up. Particularly with wide receivers and tight ends, keep a close watch on the chart and you'll find that a good number of these guys, especially the rookies, may well last until round 15 or 16. So, be patient and wait until the right time.

Along this same train of thought, this strategy also applies well to homers. If you insist on picking a player or two of your home team, do it at the right time! We're looking at you Packers fans. Aaron Rodgers is not a first round pick in any league outside of the state of Wisconsin. It's true; he does have a sweet mustache, but there is still no need to take him there. Just pick a normal first rounder and pick him up a round or two later, where his ADP suggests.

Finally, no matter how much you prepare, the actual draft never pans out quite like you expect. Even if you have run through countless mocks to prepare, those are not always very representative of the real draft, particularly as in the deeper rounds. People tend to throw in the towel on mock drafts after they get bored and do not pay close attention to the late rounds - the ones that win championships. No matter how prepared you feel, when you get deep into the draft (and the beer), you probably won't have much of a game-plan and you will be surprised at who is left on the table. Having an ADP chart to reference down in those trenches may help save your ass when you caught like a deer in headlights trying to decide who to snag with your 147th pick.

Again, this value method does not need to be employed as a hard and fast approach, but rather as a system of checks and balances. By keeping that ADP chart handy during your draft and adding a layer of objectivity the selection process, you are sure to cut down the number of mistakes and most importantly, avoid the looming threat of never-ending scorn from your league mates for a stupid pick.