Indianapolis Colts 2009 Preview: New Administration, Same Expectations

Training camps have wrapped up, the NFL season is right around the corner, and it's still hot as sin outside. But instead of cooling you off with a warm island song, FanHouse break out ye old heat check for our 2009 NFL Season Previews. " We'll rate each club in 5 categories on a scale of 1 to 10, high score wins.

For most franchises, 12 wins is a banner year; one they can hang their proverbial hats upon. For the Colts, 12 wins is a certainly. They have won at least 12 games in each of the last six seasons. They have also had Tony Dungy as their head coach for the past seven years, but now he's gone. In 2009, the Colts will look for some continuity. Can it be provided by the Jim Caldwell administration?

Offense: The Colts actually only ranked 15th in total offense in 2008, but there were extenuating circumstances. Peyton Manning opened the season with a bum knee. He was far less than 100 percent, and his inability to hand-off their stretch play -- which opens up the play-action -- severely hampered the offense early in the season. The Colts lost Jeff Saturday, Manning's long-time center, for four games. They also suffered a bit with the demise of Marvin Harrison and injury issues hampering Joseph Addai (paving the way for the rushing offense to rank 31st in the NFL). At the end of the day, though, these things all likely made the 2009 offense even stronger. The Colts drafted Donald Brown in the first round as competition for Addai, but Addai is healthy and looking great in camp. This makes Brown insurance. Manning is fully healthy and firing on all cylinders. Saturday has re-upped with Indy and is healthy. With Harrison out of the way, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez are free to realize their full potential (and Clark's is as an elite tight end, which he already realized last season). Rookie wideout Austin Collie has the potential to break through as yet another weapon in Manning's already absurd arsenal. I also like Reggie Wayne to have a better year than last. Expect the Colts to, once again, be one of the best and most efficient offenses in the NFL. Heat Index: 10


Defense: Judging just upon rankings -- which is yardage per game and nothing more -- the Colts defense was better than the offense in '08, checking in at 11th. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney pressure the passer well, and coverage is good enough to give the Colts one of the best pass defenses in the league. Here's an insane stat: The Colts only allowed 6 passing touchdowns all season. No one else allowed less than 12 and most gave up more than 20. They'll get back Marlin Jackson -- a corner who tore his ACL in October -- as well. Of course, the Colts rushing defense was a problem yet again. They ranked 24th in rushing defense. Oft-injured-yet-studly-when-healthy Bob Sanders only played 6 games. He's currently on the shelf and probably won't be ready for the start of the season. Still, the biggest problem with the Colts' run defense over the years has been the lack of productive size in the middle. They drafted Fili Moala and Terrance Taylor to help combat the problem, while also welcoming back Ed Johnson -- after cutting him last year for drug issues. This will help free up the linebackers and improve the run stopping ability for the group as a whole. Expect the defense to take more chances in terms of blitzes and gambling for takeaways now that the conservative Ron Meeks and Tony Dungy are gone. This is going to be a tough group, and they'll be underrated because of the star power on the other side of the ball. Heat Index: 9

Special Teams: The Colts special teams were dreadful in 2008. In fact, they were probably the worst special teams unit in football. Their coverage was bad, their return game was worse, and Adam Vinatieri is clearly on the downside of his career. Hunter Smith is a respectable punter, but he's now been replaced with a rookie, Pat McAfee. The Colts have brought in a new special teams coach, and he's emphasizing kick coverage. Still, the changes that have been made aren't enough to make this group anything worthwhile. Fortunately, they have a stacked offense and defense. Heat Index: 2

Coaching: Going from Dungy to Caldwell is an obvious and drastic downgrade, even if you think Dungy is overrated and didn't do enough in the playoffs over the course of his career (as I've heard many non-Colts fans claim). The rest of the staff is actually better than before, though. Finding a way to keep Tom Moore (offensive coordinator) and Howard Mudd (offensive line) aboard after they retired amidst pension disputes was a huge save. Each is elite at performing his respective job. I'm scoring the change from Meeks to Larry Coyer an upgrade, as I've long thought Meeks was overrated and Coyer led some really great Broncos defenses last time he had the same position. Going from Russ Purnell to Ray Rychleski as special teams coach is also an upgrade. All in all, the Colts have assembled a supporting staff for Caldwell that rivals any in the NFL. We must also consider Caldwell was being groomed to take over for Dungy for the last few years. His bad stint at Wake Forest is a distant memory. I would probably give this group a nine with Dungy, so I think a 2-point deduction for Caldwell is fair, in light of the upgrades elsewhere. Heat Index: 7

Intangibles: I can't think of a single negative thing when it comes to this team and their demeanor, confidence, swagger, lack of ego or off-field issues. There just aren't any. There is a strong core of seemingly good people, built as one franchise by ownership. They play together, they play hard and they check their egos at the door. Plus, there has to be an added fire to prove that they can keep the 12-win streak going without Dungy at the helm. I do believe there would have been a slight locker-room problem had Mudd and Moore not been brought back, but that's taken care of itself. Add in possibly the strongest on-field leader in the game (Manning), and what can you say? I honestly don't think there's a more harmonious team in the NFL, which will make Caldwell's job that much easier. Heat Index: 10

Total Heat Index: 38/50 If we were grading without special teams, the Colts would easily receive the highest score. They have obviously found ways to survive in the regular season with terrible special teams play for years. Their Super Bowl title would have been a laugher if they could cover a kickoff. What this team faces now is not a regular season task, though. In order for the Manning-era Colts to be looked upon as an all-time team, they have to win more than one Super Bowl Championship. In fact, one could argue if Manning retires having only won one title, the Colts franchise for the era will be looked upon as postseason underachievers. It's not fair, because the label used to be "can't win the big one." A couple seasons ago, they won the big one, and now they have to win more to satisfy the sports historians -- and probably themselves. When the bar is set that high, them's the breaks. It is what it is. As the title of this preview states, the expectations are the same. The Colts are looking to win another Super Bowl, new coach or not. Anything less is a failure. That's what happens when you win 12 freaking games every year.