NFL Week 1 Picks: Wager (Legally) at Your Own Risk

Tennessee's venture into Pittsburgh Thursday will be the NFL's eighth straight stand-alone weeknight opener.

It started in 2002 when San Francisco visited the Meadowlands to play the Giants with the idea of commemorating the first anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Commissioner Paul Tagliabue wanted to go even farther -- playing a Super Bowl at Giants Stadium -- until he finally listened to the folks who suggested that 30-40 mph "breezes" and a wind-chill around zero could make the NFL's showcase event into something other than a winter carnival.

The next year, the opener was in Washington with two more 9/11 teams -- the Jets and the Redskins. Since then, the Super Bowl winner has been the host and it's never lost. In fact, the only home team to drop the Thursday night opener was the Giants in that first game: 16-13.

Keep that in mind about the Titans-Steelers game.

Yes, stats are random and at 5-0, a champion is due to lose. I remember years ago reading a tout's rationale for picking the Giants over the old St. Louis Cardinals: "The Giants have covered four straight times in road games east of the Rockies.'' Blather. The Giants were good and the Cardinals bad, so the Giants won and covered.

A WARNING TO WAGERERS: My handicapping method is random and not very good -- designed more than anything for angles rather than reality. I've even picked against my better judgment so I could play to a story line. In 25 years of doing this for the Associated Press, I was over .500 against the spread in maybe six or eight seasons, and well over .500 only once: in 2007. That's probably because I could pick the Patriots every weekend.

This week both teams are good, although the Steelers are favored by 5 1/2 -- three points for home field plus 2 1/2. That despite the fact that Pittsburgh's worst loss of its four last season en route to the title was a 31-14 rout at Tennessee when LenDale White caused a stir by stomping on one of Pittsburgh's Terrible Towels. But the Titans were upset by Baltimore in their first playoff game and never got another shot at the Steelers.

For this game, my instincts tell me the obvious: that Heinz Field is a tough place to play, especially in an opener when fans are revved up; that even though Kerry Collins has become more mobile in his dotage and Tennessee's OL is one of the best, Kerry vs. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley is a bad matchup for the Titans that could produce turnovers.

Not much scoring, although there could be some on defense -- the Pittsburgh OL is still its weak spot. So go with the angle -- the first stand-alone opener ended 16-13, so ...

STEELERS, 16-13.

A QUICK NOTE: Starting next week, I'll do team rankings. But just the top and bottom six because ranking 32 teams is silly. Try explaining why one team is "14'' and another is "18.'' I can't and neither can anyone else.

For this week, here's a vague assessment -- in no special order.

GOOD: Pittsburgh, New England, Giants, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Baltimore, Minnesota

PRETTY GOOD: Indianapolis, San Diego, Arizona, Dallas, Miami, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans

AVERAGE: Washington, Atlanta, Carolina, Jets, Seattle. Plus Cincinnati and San Francisco (marginally -- like C-minus)

BAD: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Denver

UGLY: Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis

The rest of the picks, keeping in mind that in openers, form is sometimes off because starters play so little in exhibitions:

Washington (plus 6 1/2) at Giants

A rematch of last year's Thursday night opener, won 16-7 by New York as Jason Campbell kept throwing 6-yard passes on third and seven. Same game.

GIANTS 16-7

Philadelphia (minus 1) at Carolina

Teams like Carolina that have bad preseasons often get better when things get real.

PANTHERS 24-23

Jacksonville (plus 7) at Indianapolis

Peyton HATES fantasy football. So his passing numbers will only be as good as they need to be.

COLTS 24-14

San Francisco (plus 6) at Arizona

The 49ers could be a pleasant surprise. The Cardinals were a pleasant surprise last season, which makes them candidates to be unpleasant surprises this year, especially if 38-year-old Kurt Warner has injury problems.

CARDINALS, 28-25

Miami (plus 4) at Atlanta

I'd make this an upset if the Dolphins' secondary was better.

FALCONS, 24-23

Detroit (plus 13) at New Orleans

The Lions WILL win a game this year. Maybe three or four or more. Not this one, Matthew Stafford's first NFL start.

SAINTS, 37-20

Dallas (minus 5 1/2) at Tampa Bay.

The bad matchup for Tampa is DeMarcus Ware vs, Byron Leftwich, immobile with a slow delivery. If this was in Dallas, the Bucs would punt so many times they'd be sure to hit the video board.

COWBOYS, 31-13

Minnesota (minus 3 1/2) at Cleveland

Déjà vu: Brett's first exhibition game as a Jet was in Cleveland, and he was playing for the Browns' new coach.

VIKINGS, 24-10

Kansas City (plus 10) at Baltimore

Mismatch for the Chiefs, a team just starting to rebuild.

RAVENS, 30-3

New York Jets (plus 4) at Houston

Mark Sanchez looked good against good defenses in exhibitions. The Texans don't have a good defense. But this isn't preseason.

TEXANS, 27-20

Denver (plus 3 1/2) at Cincinnati

The Bengals look stable compared to the Broncos' preseason soap opera.

BENGALS, 27-21

St. Louis (plus 7 1/2) at Seattle

Missouri's teams face the NFL's biggest rebuilding jobs.

SEAHAWKS, 26-7

Chicago (plus 3 1/2) at Green Bay

Packers, their defense improved, benefit from Cutler's impatience.

PACKERS 22-17

Buffalo (plus 10) at New England

New England has beaten Buffalo 11 straight and 16 of 17, including 38-7 and 56-10 back in 2007. The Worldwide Leader will be make this a personality thing: T.O., Randy and Tom. Probably have to considering the suspense will be gone early.

PATRIOTS, 27-2

San Diego (minus 9) at Oakland

The second half of the Monday night doubleheader. The WWL's cameras will focus on Oakland's brawling coaches with an inset of the game in the upper right corner. And, of course, a lot of shots of Al in his box. If they can find him.

CHARGERS, 44-6