Saints Top Worst-to-First Power Rankings

Amid all these NFL predictions flooding the web this week there are few certainties. But if recent history is any indication, we know for sure that at least one of this year's division winners will be a team that finished in last place a year ago. At least one team has turned the trick every year since the NFL went to the current eight-division format -- 10 teams total in six seasons. The Dolphins did it last year, the Buccaneers the year before, and the Eagles and Saints the year before that.

The reasons for this phenomenon are obvious -- overall parity, four-team divisions, a scheduling system that (basically) makes life easier for the teams at the bottom and tougher for the teams at the top. The only question as the 2009 season dawns is which of last year's last-place finishers will be among this year's division winners. We ranked all eight of them in order of their chances to continue the trend:

1. New Orleans Saints (8-8 in 2008): First place seems like an easy call. The Saints weren't bad last year. They have a big-time offense (assuming Pierre Thomas gets healthy and holds up). And you can see where each of the other three teams in the NFC South could take steps backward. Many are even picking New Orleans as division champ this year.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Those who like the Jags point to upgrades on the offensive line and at wide receiver, their two trouble spots from a year ago. Those of us who aren't buying it point to the Colts, Titans and Texans all also playing in the AFC South. But hey. You never know.

3. Washington Redskins (8-8): If Jacksonville's AFC South is a meat grinder, then Washington's NFC East is a bone-crusher. It takes a lot to imagine the Redskins being better than the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys. But if Clinton Portis can hold up all year and Jason Campbell takes that big leap forward and Albert Haynesworth plays as well in the first year of a contract as he did in the last...that's how these things work.

4. Buffalo Bills (7-9): The idea that anybody but New England can win the AFC East is predicated on the assumption that the Patriots somehow fall apart. Even if that happens, it's hard to see the Bills, who have spent the past couple of weeks in roster and coaching disarray, being the team to jump up and swipe the division title. But nobody saw the Dolphins coming a year ago, either. Now, if only the Bills can think up some dazzling new offensive scheme that tricks the entire rest of the league and becomes the hot trend a year from now...

5. St. Louis Rams (2-14): They were abominable a year ago, and in spite of our high opinion of Steve Spagnuolo, there's no reason to think they'll be any better this year. But the NFC West was won with nine wins in 2008, so the Rams don't have to make much of a jump to get into contention. This ranking says more about the Cardinals, Seahawks and 49ers than it does about the Rams.

6. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Everything's new in K.C., which is great. And if the Chargers don't take off the way everybody's expecting them to, the AFC West will be there for the taking. The problem is, thanks to their offensive line, so will the Chiefs' quarterbacks. All year.

7. Detroit Lions (0-16): We believe they will be better this year. This is not a difficult prediction to make. They only need to win one freaking game, and they'll be better. But in an NFC North that might feature the three best teams in the conference, their chances of going worst-to-first look pretty dismal.

8. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Both of last year's AFC Championship Game combatants play in the AFC North. The Browns' new coach is a paranoid whack-job. They didn't know until four days before the season started who was going to play quarterback, and they still don't know who's going to catch the ball when that guy throws it. We say they're the worst team in the league. But again, the whole point of this exercise is...you never know.