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Secret to Chase Title? Average a Top-5

Sep 19, 2009 – 9:13 PM
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Geoffrey Miller

Geoffrey Miller %BloggerTitle%

Jimmie JohnsonBased on the five versions of the Chase for the Sprint Cup we've seen so far, two things are clear.

First, Jimmie Johnson's run of three straight championships has to leave the No. 48 as the car to beat, regardless of his performance heading to the Chase. And second, drivers agree: average a top-five finish and you'll be hosting the beautiful Tiffany & Co.-built trophy in Homestead.

In fact, that's what Jimmie Johnson has done in the past two years, setting the bar for what this season's slate of drivers will be aiming for.
Last season, Johnson compiled three wins in the final ten races while averaging a finish of 5.7. He secured his third straight title by 59 points over Carl Edwards.

Such a stat, Mark Martin says, can't be beat even in the most competitive of Chase environments.

"Nobody is going to beat a five or 5.5-place finish," Martin said Friday ahead of the Chase's opening round. "Anybody that does that for 10 races is going to hold that trophy."

Martin already has a slight advantage -- and possibly a few extra mulligan points -- thanks to his four race wins in 2009 that have seeded him with 40 extra bonus pointsand the Chase lead heading to New Hampshire.

Those bonus points, as well as the increased point total for winning a race that was instituted ahead of the 2007 season, have changed the game according to Jeff Gordon. The four-time champion is yet to win a title under the Chase format.

"Winning is more of a premium these days because of the points gap between winning and second," Gordon said. "Ever since they changed that, I think it has made winning that much more important because you can get down a little bit, win two or three races and you can make up a ton of points. In the past, there wasn't that big of a gap and you are fine with finishing second, third or fourth."

The stats back Gordon up on that matter.

Johnson's first title in 2006 carried the lowest average finish of any Chase champion. He wound up with a 10.8 average with just one win and still pulled the title out by 56 points. The 2005 edition was won by Tony Stewart with an 8.7 average and Kurt Busch took the 2004 title by just an 8 point margin with an average finish of 8.9.

Such slim margins have Kasey Kahne, another Chase contender, realizing that his team will need to pick up the pace. No longer with a 10th-place average do.

"We're going to have to step our consistency up a little bit further," said Kahne. "I think we're more of a quiet 8th to 13th and we're gonna need to stick that further up in the top-10 and win a race or two if we want to win a championship."
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