Week 3 Picks: The Real Titans, Jets?

In the NFL, Week Three is often upset week. My theory, no one else's.

And given my record on picks over the years, (good this year, not so good in 24 others) you can take it or leave it.

The idea is that in a league where parity is the rule, a team that's not good enough to be 3-0 won't be. And a team that's not bad enough to be 0-3 won't be.

Which brings us to Sunday's game at the Meadowlands between the 2-0 Jets and the 0-2 Titans.

I know the Titans are better than 0-2.

The 13-10 opening-night loss to the Steelers at Heinz Field -- a most difficult assignment -- seems far more indicative of their defensive abilities than last week's 34-31 home loss to Houston, when the secondary kept blowing assignments. The Jets, meanwhile, are in perfect letdown mode after beating the Patriots, their most despised rival.

The guys in Vegas seem to know it. The Jets are favored by 2 1/2 on most lines, less than the three points they get for home-field advantage. In other words, they are half-a-point better on a neutral field.

A couple of other factors:

-- The Jets went into Nashville last year with the Titans 10-0 and beat them 34-13. That sets up a revenge motif.

-- Mark Sanchez is still a rookie QB and the Tennessee defense HAS to be better than the one riddled last week by Matt Schaub. There's what's called the "three-tape'' rule with rookie QBs -- see him three times, and you can spot his flaws. (OK, this is two games, but you get the idea.)

See how easy it is to talk yourself into a pick? If you want the other argument, maybe you'll find it on Twitter.

In any case ...

THE PICK: TITANS, 20-17

Washington (1-1) (minus 6) at Detroit (0-2)

Speaking of Twitter, if you check out a lot of football people there, you'll find that many are picking the Lions. That was my original inclination, given how dismal the Redskins were on offense last week in their 9-7 win over St. Louis, a team that might be worse than Detroit.

Some interesting numbers: Between 1968 and 1999, the Redskins beat the Lions 18 straight times, including 41-10 in the 1991 NFC title game (yes, youngsters, the Lions actually did get that far once, largely on the legs of Barry Sanders). Detroit has won two of six meetings since then, an indication of Washington's decline since Dan (The Fan) Snyder bought the team.

But ...

I'm not a bandwagon jumper. If all those other folks think Detroit will break its 19-game losing streak here, I'll have to be contrary. I can argue that the Redskins' defense is good enough to force a few turnovers from Matt Stafford and that the Lions' defense is bad enough that Jim Zorn will let Jason Campbell do more things than he's let him try so far.

THE PICK: REDSKINS, 23-19

San Francisco (2-0) (plus 7) at Minnesota (2-0)

The only meeting of 2-0 teams this week.

The last time they played, in 2007, Adrian Peterson finished with 3 yards on 14 carries. (Frank Gore: 14 carries, 68 yards). Peterson will do better. But that spread is a little high against a ball-control/defense team.

THE PICK: VIKINGS, 19-16

Atlanta (2-0) (plus 4) at New England (1-1)

The first game of the rest of their lives for the Patriots, who should be 0-2.

This is a good test for the Falcons and Matt Ryan, who will be coming "home'' (his original home is outside Philly). Playing in Foxboro is not like playing at the Georgia Dome, where Atlanta has won its first two games.

If (IF) Matt Light can control John Abraham, look for Tom Brady to have his first consistent game this season.

THE PICK: PATRIOTS, 27-21

New Orleans (2-0) (minus 6) at Buffalo (1-1)

Brees' pace slows down a bit at the Ralph, where the defense can be pretty good.

THE PICK: SAINTS, 24-20

Indianapolis (2-0) (plus 2 1/2) at Arizona (1-1)

Pierre Garcon? Austin Collie? What does it matter to Peyton, who put up 27 points in 14 minutes and 53 seconds with the ball.

But unlike Miami, Arizona can put up points quickly.

Shootout?

THE PICK: CARDINALS, 31-28

Carolina (0-2) (plus 8) at Dallas (1-1)

A week late, but Jerry Jones gets to celebrate in his Taj Mahal.

THE PICK: COWBOYS, 31-13


Pittsburgh (1-1) (minus 4) at Cincinnati (1-1)
THE PICK: STEELERS, 17-14

Kansas City (0-2) (no line) at Philadelphia (1-1)
THE PICK: EAGLES, 24-10

Jacksonville (0-2) (plus 3 1/2) at Houston (1-1)
THE PICK: TEXANS, 27-20

Cleveland (0-2) (plus 13) at Baltimore (2-0)
THE PICK: RAVENS, 31-20

New York Giants (2-0) (minus 6 1/2) at Tampa Bay (0-2)
THE PICK: GIANTS, 34-19

Green Bay (1-1) (minus 6 1/2) at St. Louis (0-2)
THE PICK: PACKERS, 19-9

Chicago (1-1) (minus 2) at Seattle (1-1)
THE PICK: BEARS, 20-10

Miami (0-2) (plus 6) at San Diego (1-1)
THE PICK: CHARGERS, 27-23

Denver (2-0) (minus 1 1/2) at Oakland (1-1)
THE PICK: RAIDERS, 13-10


Last Week: Very, very strange 12-4 (against the spread); 8-8 (straight up)
Season: 20-12 (spread); 20-12 (straight up)