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Suicide Pool Solution: Week 3

Sep 26, 2009 – 1:45 PM
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Brett Pollakoff

Brett Pollakoff %BloggerTitle%

Each week, FanHouse takes a deeper look at the obvious -- and not so obvious -- options for your NFL suicide pool. Standard rules apply: pick one team to win straight up (no point spreads), and each team may only be used once.

If you were fortunate enough to stay away from the Packers and Titans last week, the good news is that you're still alive. The bad news is that you were probably forced to suffer through a shaky first half with the Vikings, or an entire game of misery while rooting in the Redskins.

Thankfully, things look to be a lot easier in Week 3.

With teams like the Ravens, Giants, and Packers all playing against the league's bottom feeders, most should be able to get by unscathed this week. But which of these seemingly lopsided matchups will give you the best chance to win in the weeks to come? Let's take a closer look.

The Ravens will undoubtedly be the majority play this week, and it's tough to find a reason not to take them. After two games, Baltimore has looked like one of the top teams in the league, showing flashes of dominance on both sides of the ball. They're hosting a Cleveland Browns team that has managed just one offensive touchdown over the first two games of the season, and it came two weeks ago.

The Browns managed just six points during their 27-6 shellacking in Denver, while allowing their quarterback to get sacked four times in the second half by the same player -- the Broncos' Elvis Dumervil. Ever heard of the word adjustment, Mr. Mangenius?

When you combine Baltimore's more complete attack with Cleveland's ineptitude, the Ravens are as close as you get to a sure thing in these contests.

But does that mean you take them this week?

If you're just into playing this game week-to-week, then yes, going with Baltimore should take you safely into Week 4. But if you're in it for the long haul, you need to look at the other reasonable options -- along with the rest of the Ravens' schedule -- before making that all-important selection.

The Giants are in Tampa Bay, and the Packers are in St. Louis, and both road favorites should take care of business against two of the worst teams in the league. A good rule to follow in these things, however, is to stay away from picking road teams unless it's absolutely necessary. Let's face it, if a huge underdog is going to rise up and take down a heavy favorite, it's more likely to happen at home than on the road.

The Rams were feisty in Washington last week, and the Bucs showed some fight in Buffalo, after falling behind 17-0 early. With much stronger options on the board, going with a road team this week is an unnecessary risk, with the only upside being the fact that you would get to save the Ravens to use down the road.

But a quick look at Baltimore's schedule shows that they really don't have any easy games at home until Week 14, when they'll host the Detroit Lions. And who knows if you'll even still be around by then, if you choose to go with road favorites when there's an easy pick on the board like the Ravens?

A couple of other options worth mentioning if you're hell-bent on not taking Baltimore include the Cowboys hosting the Panthers, and the Texans hosting the Jaguars.

Jake Delhomme only threw one pick last week -- you know, as opposed to the nine he threw in his previous two games -- and Carolina remained a single score away from Atlanta for most of the game. The Panthers might be slowly righting the ship.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys lead the league in team rushing, but they also gave up 33 points and over 300 yards passing in their loss to the Giants, without getting even a single sack on Eli Manning.

Dallas might win, but all I'm saying is, there are red flags if you're considering this one.

Houston looked great in Tennessee last week, winning a physical shootout and sending the Titans to an 0-2 start. They host a Jaguars team that kept it close against the Colts in Week 1, before they got crushed by the Cardinals in Week 2.

If you must shy away from the Ravens, the Texans appear to be a solid choice. Jacksonville had no answer for Kurt Warner's passing attack. so just imagine what Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to be able to do. And the last time these two teams met in Houston (in December of last year), the Texans won by double digits. And if you need one more stat to convince you, chew on this: Houston is 7-2 when wearing their all red uniforms, which they'll be doing this Sunday.

So, yeah. After all of this analysis, I'm afraid that the Ravens are probably the best selection in Week 3. But hey, when you're in the early stages of what you hope will be a season-long contest, it never hurts to take a closer look at all of your available options.

Good luck this week.
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