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The Once-Over: Week 4

Oct 3, 2009 – 12:30 PM
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Knox Bardeen

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Drew BreesWith attention spans dwindling, we forego full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Washington (1-2): With the Buccaneers winless this season and looking back at their final four losses to end last season, Tampa Bay hasn't won a regular season game since November 30, 2008. Add to that the fact that a new quarterback, Josh Johnson, is taking over for the Bucs and Antonio Bryant still isn't positive he'll play, and the horizon is bleak in Tampa.

Jim Zorn's days seem numbered in Washington. He lost to Detroit last week, which hadn't won since 2007. It might be the kiss of death if he drops a home game to Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Pick: Washington

Baltimore (3-0) at New England (2-1): The Ravens have never beaten New England and it'll be a tough task to head into Foxboro and grab their first win on Sunday. Baltimore has looked like the best team in the NFL through three games but Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and a hostile Patriots crowd may be too much for Joe Flacco, as good as he's been, to overcome.

New England was able to run the ball last week, which meant a lot against Atlanta. But this Ravens defense is far superior to what the Falcons brought to town so they'll need Brady to find an ailing Randy Moss often and avoid Ed Reed. A healthy Wes Welker would greatly aid in that task.

Pick: New England

New York Giants (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3):
We all know that the Kansas City pass rush is next to non-existent. Eli Manning will flourish with all of the time he's going to be given in the pocket.

The Giants have the top pass defense in the NFL thus far, which is really bad news for Matt Cassel and the Chiefs. Kansas City is 28th in passing yards and Larry Johnson is averaging only 2.5 yard per carry on the ground. If Kansas City can't throw the ball and it can't run the ball -- how will it score?

Pick: New York Giants

Tennessee (0-3) at Jacksonville (1-2):
There aren't too many bigger surprises in the NFL than the 0-and-3 start for the Titans. To chalk up their first win Kerry Collins must fix the passing game. He finished their Week 3 game with 13 consecutive incomplete passes. Lucky for Collins, the Jaguars have the worst pass defense in the NFL.

Maurice Jones-Drew is already one of the top running backs in the league. Is Mike Sims-Walker ready to be a top receiver? The hyphen might make Sims-Walker similar to Jones-Drew, but don't confuse Sims-Walker's 187 yards receiving over the last two games as a sign that he's ready to become an elite receiver. I'm not even sure that he's ready to be a No. 1 guy for the Jags.

Pick: Tennessee

Seattle (1-2) at Indianapolis (3-0):
Without Matt Hasselbeck the offensive weapons for the Seahawks aerial attack are more like cap-guns then WMD's. Hasselbeck is highly doubtful for Sunday's game so Seneca Wallace must figure out how to produce in the passing attack because Julius Jones cannot do it all -- even against a porous Indianapolis run defense.

Peyton Manning leads all NFL quarterbacks with a 117.7 passer rating and is only eight yards behind Phillip Rivers for the league lead in passing yards. Yes, Seattle is a top-ten passing defense, But, their first three games have been against teams that aren't exactly aerial juggernauts.

Pick: Indianapolis

Oakland (1-2) at Houston (1-2):
Darren McFadden has only 148 yards rushing through three games and fumbled three times last week. Anyone who has more fumbles then touchdowns is not living up to expectations. Houston has the worst run defense in the league through three games so if McFadden is going to get on track -- Week 4 is the time to do it.

After a poor showing in the season opener, Matt Schaub has been brilliant in the Weeks 2 and 3. He's thrown for 300-plus yards in both weeks and has seven touchdown passes and only one interception as well.

Pick: Houston

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3):
Cedric Benson has been the man thus far with 293 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Cleveland is ranked 30th against the run so Benson should get many more opportunities this week to pad his rushing stats.

Cleveland will be rolling with Derek Anderson this week as he has replaced Brady Quinn in the revolving door that is the Cleveland Browns quarterback controversy. It shouldn't matter as Anderson threw three picks after replacing Quinn last week. Maybe Eric Mangini is having so much trouble deciding between quarterback because both are terribly ineffective.

Pick: Cincinnati

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (2-1):
Congratulations to the Lions for earning their first victory since 2007 last week. Don't get used to winning just yet. Calvin Johnson may be able to exploit the Bears secondary, but Chicago will be too much for the Lions to put two wins together.

Jay Cutler looked horrible in Week 1 for the Bears but has since improved dramatically. He only has one interception and five touchdown passes in his last two games and the Lions are ranked 30th as a pass defense. Cutler should have a big game at home.

Pick: Chicago

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Latest NFL Photos
photo taken on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre shouts out at the line of scrimmage against the San Francisco 49er during an NFL football game in Minneapolis. Favre says he's not out for revenge heading into the Vikings' Monday night game against his former team, a statement that contradicts his previous comments about wanting to "stick it" to the man who traded him, general manager Ted Thompson. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
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Latest NFL Images

    Houston Texans running back Ryan Moats' shoes are shown Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in Houston. Moats was denied the chance to say a final goodbye to his mother-in-law Jonetta Collinsworth as she succumbed to breast cancer because of an ugly incident with a police officer that gained national attention. Now the Houston Texan is hoping what he went through can help raise awareness about the importance of breast cancer screening. He, along with players across the NFL, will wear pink shoes and gloves starting this week as part of the NFL's "Crucial Catch" campaign.(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

    AP

    Houston Texans running back Ryan Moats' shoes are shown Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in Houston. Moats was denied the chance to say a final goodbye to his mother-in-law Jonetta Collinsworth as she succumbed to breast cancer because of an ugly incident with a police officer that gained national attention. Now the Houston Texan is hoping what he went through can help raise awareness about the importance of breast cancer screening. He, along with players across the NFL, will wear pink shoes and gloves starting this week as part of the NFL's "Crucial Catch" campaign. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

    AP

    Houston Texans running back Ryan Moats, right, poses with his wife, Tamishia, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in Houston. Moats was denied the chance to say a final goodbye to his mother-in-law Jonetta Collinsworth as she succumbed to breast cancer because of an ugly incident with a police officer that gained national attention. Now the Houston Texan is hoping what he went through can help raise awareness about the importance of breast cancer screening. He, along with players across the NFL, will wear pink shoes and gloves starting this week as part of the NFL's "Crucial Catch" campaign. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

    AP

    Houston Texans running back Ryan Moats poses with his shoes Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in Houston. Moats was denied the chance to say a final goodbye to his mother-in-law Jonetta Collinsworth as she succumbed to breast cancer because of an ugly incident with a police officer that gained national attention. Now the Houston Texan is hoping what he went through can help raise awareness about the importance of breast cancer screening. He, along with players across the NFL, will wear pink shoes and gloves starting this week as part of the NFL's "Crucial Catch" campaign. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

    AP

    In this frame grab taken from video released by the Tennessee Department of Mental Health and Development Disabilities, NFL quarterback Steve McNair is shown in a public service announcement that urges young people thinking about suicide to call a hotline and "live to see better days." The video was made shortly before McNair's mistress killed him and then herself. (AP Photo/Tennessee Department of Mental Health and Development Disabilities)

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    Former New England Patriot and San Diego Charger linebacker Junior Seau, left, rides the Zamboni between periods of the Boston Bruins NHL hockey game against the Washington Capitals in Boston, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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    Carolina Panthers guard Keydrick Vincent, left, jokes with new Panthers defensive tackle Hollis Thomas following practice in Charlotte, North Carolina, Thursday, October 1, 2009. (Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/MCT)

    MCT

    New Carolina Panthers defensive tackle Hollis Thomas walks off the practice field in Charlotte, North Carolina, Thursday, October 1, 2009. (Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/MCT)

    MCT

    Carolina Panthers tight end Dante Rosario catch balls from a football passing machine after team practice in Charlotte, North Carolina, Thursday, October 1, 2009. (Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/MCT)

    MCT

    New Carolina Panthers president Danny Morrison, left, walks off the practice field with head coach John Fox following practice in Charlotte, North Carolina, Thursday, October 1, 2009. (Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/MCT)

    MCT


The Late Games

New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans (3-0): In the game that I'm most excited about seeing this week -- let's watch an irresistible force (the Saints offense) collide with an immovable object (the Jets defense) and see who gives. Drew Brees will see blitz schemes like he's never seen before on Sunday as the top-5 pass defense of the Jets tries to contain an immensely potent offense.

Mark Sanchez got his first taste of a huge NFL game in Week 2 when the Jets played New England. He handled that well and shouldn't be too put off by the Saints, even if this is a road game. The big question will be to see if the banged-up Jets secondary can withstand the passing barrage from Brees.

Pick: New Orleans

Buffalo (1-2) at Miami (0-3):
When your team is having a rough start to the season, nothing is worse then your starting quarterback going down with a season-ending injury. Chad Henne replaced Chad Pennington and didn't instill a lot of faith in his ability to move the Dolphins offense down the field. Buffalo is pretty bad (28th ranked) as a pass defense though -- home game plus bad defense could equal first win for Miami.

Terrell Owens went without a catch last week and accused the media of trying to bait him into an explosive response. If he doesn't catch a ball this week we might not need any bait at all to catch a whopper in post-game interviews. Miami is great against the run as their front-seven is top-notch. As often as Buffalo will have to pass the ball this week, I think we're all safe from a T.O. meltdown.

Pick: Buffalo

St. Louis (0-3) at San Francisco (2-1):
With Frank Gore injured, you would think the Rams have a good chance to earn their first win against a run-happy offense without their leading rusher. Unfortunately for St. Louis, Glen Coffee seems ready to fill-in and keep the 49ers from missing a beat. It will also help that the Rams are terrible defending against the run.

Kyle Boller will be throwing the ball this week as Marc Bulger hasn't been able to make a pass all week in practice. That means Steven Jackson is going to have to step up his already potent running game for the Rams to have a chance.

Pick: San Francisco

Dallas (2-1) at Denver (3-0):
There has been no better defense in the NFL this season then the Denver Broncos. They have allowed only 16 points in three games and are a surprisingly undefeated team. Unfortunately, the cream-puff schedule ends this week with Dallas.

Dallas will have to build on its defensive performance last week that took the ball away from Carolina three times. It would also be nice if Marion Barber made it back from injury to play so the team wouldn't have to rely solely on Tashard Choice.

Pick: Dallas

SNF

San Diego (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2): Who would have thought that these two teams would enter this Week 4 matchup with a combined 3-3 record? Also amazing to think about is that the Steelers are already two games behind front-running Baltimore in their division. Ben Roethlisberger will have to pass efficiently as Pittsburgh may be without running back Willie Parker.

San Diego has never traveled into Pittsburgh and won a football game -- Never! The fact that Phillip Rivers is leading the NFL in passing yards and LaDainian Tomlinson looks well enough to play on Sunday leads me to believe that the winless streak may end.

Pick:
San Diego

MNF

Green Bay (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0):
This game has a gazillion story lines. The teams dislike each other already. Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers aren't the best of buddies and Favre finally gets to play against the team he built a Hall of Fame career running. If Green Bay wants to win this game, Rodgers will have to play like the student has become the master and the Packer defense must stop the most feared running back in the NFL, Adrian Peterson.

Favre will want to outperform Rodgers and put up crazy numbers against the Packers on Monday Night Football. As long as he avoids mistakes and lets Peterson work his magic, the Vikings should remain undefeated.

Pick: Minnesota
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