National League Championship Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. L.A. Dodgers

For the second straight year, the Phillies and Dodgers find themselves matched up in the National League Championship Series. The circumstances in 2009 really aren't all that different than they were a year ago. The Dodgers are coming off of an easy sweep against a favored team from the NL Central, while the Phillies are coming off of a four-game series win over the wild card. Last year, the Phillies routed the Dodgers in five games.

In this decade alone, this is the third LCS repeat. The Yankees and Red Sox played memorable back-to-back series in 2003 and 2004 while the Cardinals and Astros did the same in 2004 and 2005. The Dodgers should be heartened to know that the Red Sox and Astros both avenged losses to clinch World Series berths in the second year. Can the Dodgers continue that trend in 2009?

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Series Schedule

G1	Oct. 15	PHI 8, LAD 6 | Box | Mariotti | Fletcher	8:07PM ET
G2	Oct. 16	LAD 2, PHI 1 | Box | Mariotti | Fletcher	4:07PM ET
G3	Oct. 18	PHI 11, LAD 0 | Box | Price	8:07PM ET
G4	Oct. 19	PHI 5, LAD 4 | Box | Mariotti | Price	8:07PM ET
G5	Oct. 21	PHI 10, LAD 4 | Box | Mariotti | Price	8:07PM ET

Lineup
No.	Dodgers	Pos	Phillies	Pos.
1	R. Furcal	SS	J. Rollins	SS
2	A. Ethier	RF	S. Victorino	CF
3	M. Ramirez	LF	C. Utley	2B
4	M. Kemp	CF	R. Howard	1B
5	J. Loney	1B	R. Ibanez	LF
6	C. Blake	3B	J. Werth	RF
7	R. Belliard	2B	P. Feliz	3B
8	R. Martin	C	C. Ruiz	C
9	Pitcher	P	Pitcher	P
Rotation
1	R. Wolf	L	C. Lee	L
2	C. Kershaw	L	C. Hamels	L
3	V. Padilla	R	J. Blanton	R
4	C. Billingsley	R	J. Happ	L
CP	J. Broxton	R	B. Lidge	R
SU	G. Sherrill	L	R. Madson	R
SU	R. Belisario	R	S. Eyre	L

Why the Phillies Will Win

First of all, the Phillies have recent history on their side. They are the defending world champs and sport the swagger that goes along with that prestigious title. En route to that championship, they defeated these Dodgers in the NLCS.

Sure, the Dodgers took the season series (4-3, only outscoring the Phillies by one run), but that was before the Phils had Cliff Lee aboard as their staff ace. If the series goes to seven games, the Dodgers will have to deal with Lee twice. They'll also have to face Cole Hamels, who held them to a solitary run in two starts this season (0.56 ERA with 14 strikeouts and one walk), twice and owned them in the LCS last year.

The Dodgers' pitching looked pretty solid against St. Louis, but they won't have quite as easy a ride against the Phillies. Sure, the Cardinals have Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, but the Phillies have the most stacked lineup this side of the Bronx. It was never more evident than during the Phillies' ninth-inning comeback against Huston Street to take the NLDS.

Where the Cardinals have breaks in the lineup which allow the pitcher to take a few deep breaths, the Phillies do not. The top six in the order, in particular, is the most menacing group seen in the National League in some time. Pitchers get the pleasure of facing Jimmy Rollins, then Shane Victorino, followed by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez. Where's the break? They've got to be mistake-free in order to get through that group unscathed, and the Dodgers don't have enough to do so.

Finally, Brad Lidge's abysmal season in the closer role represented the Phillies' biggest weakness heading into the playoffs, but he has now saved consecutive games -- including a huge strikeout of Troy Tulowitzki with the tying run just 90 feet away. He'll come home oozing with confidence, and Charlie Manuel won't need to be worried about using him.

All things considered, it appears the Phils are headed to their second consecutive World Series.

-- Matt Snyder

Why the Dodgers Will Win

It's true that the Red Sox and Astros turned the tables on the Yankees and Cardinals earlier this decade, but what's more important in this series is how different the 2009 Dodgers are from their 2008 counterparts.

Last year, the Dodgers went with three starters against the Phillies. That meant that after they cut the Phils' lead down to 2-1 with a blowout win in Game 3, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley started on short rest in Games 4 and 5. Lowe was effective but only went five innings and the bullpen blew his lead. Billingsley wasn't effective, and the series was over. This year, the Dodgers shouldn't have any problem going four deep in the rotation with Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vincente Padilla, and Billingsley. Kershaw, and Padilla both turned in excellent starts against St. Louis in the Division Series.

Their lineup is mostly unchanged from last year, with the exception of Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard combining to replace the aging Jeff Kent at second base. That's not a bad thing, though. In the three games last year that weren't started by Cole Hamels, the Dodgers scored at least five runs against the Phillies. Hamels owned the Dodgers last year, but his start against Colorado in the Division Series was shaky (seven hits and four earned runs in five innings).

Comparisons to 2008 only mean so much. The 2009 incarnation of the Dodgers are coming off of an impressive sweep of a Cardinals team that many thought would dominate the first round. They chased both Chris Carpenter and Joel Piniero early. They got big series from Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, and Manny Ramirez. Their bullpen, which was forced to work overtime in Game 1, only gave up two earned runs in 8 1/3 innings, striking out seven and only allowing one walk.

The regular season Dodgers finished with the best record in the National League and there's nothing that's happened in the playoffs to suggest anything to the contrary. That's why they'll continue the recent trend and flip last year's result to earn their first World Series berth in 21 years.