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Update: You can check out the first BCS standings here.
The first BCS standings of 2009 will be released on Sunday afternoon, and everyone agrees that a pair of SEC teams, Florida and Alabama, will be the top two, followed by Texas at No. 3. But what comes after that?
According to the usually accurate BCS Guru, Boise State will edge out USC for the No. 4 spot, and the remainder of the Top 10 will consist of Iowa, LSU, Cincinnati, TCU and Miami.
But the BCS standings are mostly a curiosity at this time of year. There's no prize for being atop the BCS on Oct. 18; the prize comes at the end of the season. So what's likely to happen over the next seven weeks?
For starters, obviously, either Florida or Alabama will lose, because if they keep winning they'll meet in the SEC Championship Game. That means Texas just needs to keep winning, and they'll be in the BCS title game. The Longhorns' toughest remaining game is their next one, at Oklahoma State.
So if form holds, the Florida-Alabama winner will play Texas for the national title. Of course, in college football, form usually doesn't hold. But two of the top three losing wouldn't necessarily open the door for No. 4 Boise State. The Broncos' schedule is so easy the rest of the way that they really have no opportunities to impress either the poll voters or the computers. Even if the Broncos keep winning, they could easily get passed by USC, Iowa, LSU, Cincinnati or TCU.
What could put Boise State in the BCS title game conversation would be Oregon upsetting USC on Halloween. Since Boise State beat Oregon in the season opener, a Ducks victory over the Trojans would be huge both for the Broncos' strength of schedule and for their reputation among the poll voters.
Outside the Top 5, the two teams with the clearest paths to the title game are Iowa and Cincinnati, both of which are undefeated and atop BCS conferences. And after that? There are enough scenarios to make your head spin. And over the next couple months we'll all have fun sitting back and watching.
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