Player to Watch: Manu Ginobili

FanHouse previews a player to watch from each NBA team in advance of the 2009-10 season.

It would be facile and possibly inaccurate to anoint Manu Ginobili as the most important comeback player of the 2009-10 season. After all, the success of the Wizards and Timberwolves surely depend on the health of Gilbert Arenas and Al Jefferson respectively more than the Spurs depend on Ginobili.

But -- while I would never endorse a bias of hype toward the greatest teams in the league -- it should be noted that Gil isn't going to take D.C. to parade level, and even Big Al won't land the Pups in the playoffs. Ginobili, though, could plausibly push his Spurs to the very top of the league. If Manu feels right, this is a legit championship team.

So, does Manu feel right?

There are two parallel concerns with Ginobili: his right ankle, which ended his 2008-09 season prematurely, and his age. (Manu turned 32 in July.) Whether the ankle is healed is a matter for medical professionals to assert. It's the age that bothers me moving forward. Because -- assuming Manu's weakened (but still excellent) 2008-09 performance can be attributed to the ankle -- it speaks anxiously as to what Ginobili's game might look like as he gets older.

Manu drove to the basket quite a bit less frequently than usual last season. He took more three-pointers per minute than ever, drew fewer fouls per minute than in each of the previous four seasons, and as a result had a scoring efficiency at the low end of his expected range. Of course, this low end of Manu's expected range is still absolutely wonderful, something most wings would kill for. But for Manu, it was a dip off his peak performance.

So again, let's attribute that offensive shift -- more and worse long jumpers, fewer and worse drives to the hoop -- to the ankle injury. Imagine Ginobili's ankle is now fully healed, a daydream we have no reason to believe to be false. Here's the issue: age will at some point do what the ankle injury did, which is to take away Ginobili's explosiveness. That explosiveness is so much a vital part of Manu's offensive game -- the ability to blow by defenders coupled with his sweet shooting stroke and artsy ball-handling give Manu the facets which have heretofore made the player virtually unstoppable. You take away the explosiveness, and as we saw last year the drives come fewer and become less effective, which hurts the increased rate of jumpers, which are now more assuredly defended.

But the advantage of aging over injury is that it is gradual, and it is cogently fought off with superior conditioning and strategic alterations. Manu has always been a dedicated player who (barring injury) comes into camp in tremendous shape. This isn't an aging Boris Diaw we're worrying about, you know? As per strategy, it could be as simple as playing Ginobili with Tony Parker more frequently, or otherwise finding a way to make Ginobili's minutes come as a second option rather than focal point. Manu's great contribution to the Spurs has been his ability to be the STAR off the bench -- soaking up a ton of possessions at impossibly high efficiency levels. If that needs to change to keep Manu at highly effective levels, it can. Taking pressure off Manu to do it all could boost his efficiency ... provided he can adjust into that role.

On top of all this uncertainty is the fact that (barring a last-minute, unexpected extension) Manu will be a free agent next summer. Ginobili's decision to press for clearance to play for Argentina in the 2008 Olympics -- where Ginobili aggravated a left ankle injury, requiring ill-timed surgery -- cost him a contract extension with the Spurs in advance of the 2008-09 season. To make that lost cash up, Manu needs to show the league he can still hang around an elite level for a few more years. While the Spurs may eventually shirk at paying him megabucks come July, they'll be happy to provide a canvas for his genius ... so long as it helps them get back to the Finals.