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Hideki Matsui, Others From World Series to be Overrated in 2010 Fantasy Baseball

Nov 5, 2009 – 8:55 AM
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Matt Snyder

Matt Snyder %BloggerTitle%

Hideki Matsui World Series MVPWorld Series MVP Hideki Matsui was an absolute monster (Godzilla?) in the 2009 Fall Classic. In 13 at-bats, he pounded eight hits -- including a double and three home runs -- eight RBI and three runs scored. His OPS for the series was an obscene 2.027.

As he was accepting the MVP trophy, there were many items swirling around in my head (there always are, it's a burden, I tell ya!). He's a free agent, the Yankees likely can't justify bringing back both him and Johnny Damon if they want to shore up their starting pitching, etc. There were several more ... and then I arrived at this one: man, he's really gonna be overrated in fantasy baseball drafts next season.

You see, most fantasy baseball fans -- the ones who aren't losers -- are real baseball fans first. This means they watch the World Series and it obviously has a subconscious effect on them. Year after year, players are overvalued in fantasy drafts following a big postseason (think Josh Beckett in '04, Cole Hamels this past season, Adam Wainwright in '07, Jacoby Ellsbury in '08, etc.). Sure, these are all good players, but they were being drafted far above their ceilings because we were excited about their small sample of good work in the World Series. Several times it's a young player who is just not ready to enter stud-hood yet (see the four I listed above and realize regular season breakouts came a year or two later) and sometimes it's an older player who has seen better days (see Matsui).
Just remember, you can't carry over the 2009 postseason into 2010 regular season fantasy stats.

Here are some players bound to be overrated heading into 2010 fantasy drafts, based upon their World Series performance.

Hideki Matsui - You saw his numbers above, but here are a few more. He's a 35-year-old who can't really play adequate defense anymore. He's a free agent who made $13 million this past year. He's hit more than 30 home runs just once (2004) and he hasn't driven home 100 since 2007. He hit .274 in the 2009 regular season. Just remember, he's not a big-time run producer in fantasy. You can find outfielders like him quite easily in the middle rounds. Plus, he could have a change of scenery with heightened expectations (which would also bring a lesser supporting cast).

Johnny Damon - Similar situation to Matsui. Damon's getting up there in age (today is his 36th birthday) and he's a free agent. An early season power surge skewed his regular season line and his World Series stat-line (.364-.440-.455) will surely make him near and dear the hearts of many fantasy owners. Just don't overdo it.

Derek Jeter - He's usually overrated on name recognition alone, but this past season he ended up having a rejuvenation. Still, he's not a great source of power or speed (anymore). He'll hit for high average and score runs. If you are looking for much more, you'll be disappointed.

Carlos Ruiz - He's an average offensive catcher. That's not going to all of a sudden change at age 31 just because he had an OPS of over 1.200 in the NLCS and World Series. Do not enter 2010 with him as your fantasy catcher.

Raul Ibanez - He's gonna be overrated based upon his first half of the regular season, but closing with a .942 OPS in the World Series will only compound matters.

Cliff Lee - I don't know if you heard, but Lee was pretty good this postseason (understatement alert!). With all the superlatives being hurled around by everyone from Joe Buck to the most casual of fans, I'm honestly thinking he'll be the first pitcher taken in some fantasy drafts. Man, would that be a big mistake. He was inconsistent for all of 2009, ending 14-13 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. For those talking about him being different for the Phillies, consider his ERA was actually worse for the Phils than it was for the Indians. I like him as a fantasy pitcher for next season, but not in the top 10 -- and that's where he'll be drafted in almost every single league.
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