Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos

The Denver Broncos lost for the first time last week, a predictable defeat in Baltimore.

The folks who set the odds seem to think that's the start of a trend. Don't hold it against them -- their first concern is always money, and they seem to think Pittsburgh is the money team as it heads for a Monday night meeting at Invesco Field. The Steelers are a three-point favorite against a team that hadn't lost a game until it went to Baltimore.

Understandable on one level.

The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions, a team that's almost always competitive. Denver's a traditional team, too, but it's tradition most recently hasn't been what it was in the 1980s and 1990s when it went to five Super Bowls, winning the last two in John Elway's final two seasons.

Denver's 6-0 start this season wasn't a mirage and it's been especially strong at home where it beat Dallas and New England in close games in consecutive weeks. So is there any reason to believe it can't beat Pittsburgh?

Not really.

But there is a sense that Kyle Orton, no matter what he's done this season, is not Ben Roethlisberger. And that Pittsburgh is always a force, even at altitude. Moreover, the Steelers are coming off a bye. This season more than others, that seems to help.

Steelers at Broncos (Monday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 3	20
Denver Broncos		16

This has the same feel as Pittsburgh-Denver -- the road team is favored on reputation as much as performance, as if folks aren't quite ready yet to buy the Bengals' 5-2 record. Or not ready to buy the Bengals' consistency.

But the matchups here favor the Bengals. If the Baltimore defense isn't what it was, it's primarily because of the cornerbacks. If Carson Palmer gets time ...

Ravens at Bengals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 3	24
Cincinnati Bengals		27

The Cowboys can't avoid the soap opera aspect that surrounds them, even when they're playing well, as they are right now. This time it's Roy Williams and his T.O. act -- you can almost see the tears as he proclaims himself the No. 1 receiver on the team but suggests that Tony Romo throws the ball straighter to Miles Austin and Jason Witten.

The good news for Donovan McNabb is that all HIS weapons -- DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy, in particular -- are young. So they shut up.

Cowboys at Eagles (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys		34
Philadelphia Eagles	- 3	35

After three straight losses, Tom Coughlin has proclaimed this a must win. That's probably right. The New York defense is still hurting but San Diego doesn't play very well when it comes east -- although the late starting time will help.

Chargers at Giants

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Diego Chargers		27
New York Giants	- 5	29

Another line that seems off based on the way the Texans have been playing..

Texans at Colts

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Houston Texans		34
Indianapolis Colts	- 9 1/2	35

Panthers at Saints

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Carolina Panthers		27
New Orleans Saints	- 13 1/2	37

Dolphins at Patriots

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins		17
New England Patriots	- 11	31

Redskins at Falcons

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		13
Atlanta Falcons	- 10	20

Packers at Bucs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Green Bay Packers	- 10	31
Tampa Bay Bucs		10

Chiefs at Jaguars

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		13
Jacksonville Jaguars	- 6 1/2	17

Titans at 49ers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tennessee Titans		10
San Francisco 49ers	- 4	21

Lions at Seahawks

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Detroit Lions		9
Seattle Seahawks	- 10	24

Cardinals at Bears

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals		27
Chicago Baers	- 3	24

LAST WEEK: 4-8-1 (spread), 8-5 (straight up)

SEASON: 63-52-2 (spread) 78-39 (straight up)

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