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Week 10 NFL Picks: Midseason Super Bowl in Indy

Nov 12, 2009 – 1:30 PM
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Dave Goldberg

Dave Goldberg %BloggerTitle%

Peyton Manning and Tom BradyIt's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a Patriots-Colts game locked into November. Whichever network has it can reap the sweeps month ratings that come from the matchup of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

This year, it's NBC -- the Sunday night contest. As usual, the teams come in as the top two in the AFC -- or close to it. The Colts are unbeaten, the Patriots are 6-2, have won three straight, five of six and are looking and playing better as Brady regains his form after last season's knee surgery.

This is the 10th game between these teams since 2003, including three in the playoffs. The Pats lead this Brady-Manning series 6-4, but the Colts have won four of the last five, including the AFC championship game for the 2006 season and last season, 18-15.

The line is what you'd expect: Colts favored by 3 for home field.

The game may not be what the odds guys expect. This hasn't always been a series for the home team -- the Pats won 24-20 in Indy in 2007 en route to the perfect regular season that ended imperfectly in the Super Bowl. This year, it's the Colts who are unbeaten, although they're hardly dominant -- if Houston could close games, it might have beaten the Colts last week.

Based on that and based on the sense that the Colts are due to lose:

Patriots at Colts (Sunday night)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
New England Patriots 24
Indianapolis Colts - 3 20

The Thursday night games start now for the increasing number of fans that can get the NFL Network. But these are not exactly the hottest teams in the league: the 49ers have lost four straight; the Bears have lost three of four, with the only win over Cleveland -- which probably shouldn't count.

Bears at 49ers (Thursday)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Chicago Bears 19
San Francisco 49ers - 3 27

That line is perception as much as anything.

Even though the Bengals won 23-20 at Paul Brown Stadium in the first meeting, we're talking here about the Super Bowl champions and a "public' team'' against a team perceived as perennial losers. OK, not just perceived.

Yes, the Steelers should win at home, but ...

Bengals at Steelers

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals 16
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7 19
The Chargers, now only a game behind the Broncos in the AFC West, might petition for a transfer to the NFC East if they win this after beating the Giants.

Eagles at Chargers

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles + 2 17
San Diego Chargers 23
Shudder to think of DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff against a Green Bay OL that's allowed 37 sacks.

Cowboys at Packers

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys - 3 30
Green Bay Packers 20
;
Brady Quinn is back. Good night for a comeback by the Ravens D.

Ravens at Browns (Monday)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens - 10 1/2 30
Cleveland Browns 6

Broncos at Redskins

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Denver Broncos - 3 1/2 16
Washington Redskins 15

Jaguars at Jets

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars 20
New York Jets - 7 24

Lions at Vikings

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Detroit Lions 20
Minnesota Vikings - 16 1/2 42

Saints at Rams

Team Pointspread Projected Score
New Orleans Saints - 13 1/2 39
St. Louis Rams 17

Bills at Titans

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Buffalo Bills 16
Tennessee Titans - 6 1/2 21

Falcons at Panthers

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons - 2 26
Carolina Panthers 27

Bucs at Dolphins

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
Miami Dolphins - 10 28

Seahawks at Cardinals

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks 20
Arizona Cardinals - 8 1/2 28

Chiefs at Raiders

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs 7
Oakland Raiders - 1 1/2 9
LAST WEEK: 9-4 (spread), 9-4 (straight up)

SEASON: 72-56-2 (spread), 87-43 (straight up)
Filed under: Sports

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