Footprints in the Snow: Blue Jays

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2010.

The man in charge of personnel may be new -- Alex Anthopoulos replaces his former boss J.P. Ricciardi as general manager -- but the two crucial questions for the franchise remain intact. How do you contend in a division stocked with the behemoths in Boston and New York as well as the young and talented Orioles and Rays? And, perhaps more pressing, what to do with Roy Halladay?

The answers to the two questions have some common ground. The only way the Jays will be able to compete with the Sox and Yankees over the long haul is to stock every level of their organization with talent, like the Rays did, and then use those pieces to build a consistent winner. When Halladay leaves, whether by free agency or trade, they need to maximize the return by either paying above slot for the top available draftees or acquiring high-quality players at positions where talent is scarce.

Easier said than done, to be sure, but so is competing in the AL East.

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Who Might Leave

Marco Scutaro, SS; Rod Barajas, C; John McDonald, SS; Kevin Millar, DH/1B

Shopping List

The shopping list in Toronto all depends on whether or not Anthopoulos and his masters try to contend in 2010 or not. The bet here is that they won't -- and shouldn't -- increase payroll enough to make a serious run, which means they should let Scutaro and Barajas walk as free agents.

Scutaro had a classic walk year, bettering his offensive numbers significantly over past seasons. He's 34, so not a particulary strong bet to repeat those numbers over the course of a long-term deal. Given the relative scarcity of shortstops, they can probably offer him arbitration and collect draft picks when he signs elsewhere. Barajas is an OK catcher, but the team should be able to find a cheaper alternative.

There will be bargains come January and February among outfielders and designated hitters. The Jays would be wise to add one to round out their offense no matter what route they wind up taking with Halladay. They don't need to add any pitchers as last year's injuries left them with a stack of young pitchers with experience to fill in the rotation.

Under this assumption, the Jays would build around a core of Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider, which means they don't need to set any particular positional requirements for a Halladay trade. Get the best available players and start slotting them in as you build toward a brighter future.

Money Matters

If the Jays figure out a way to get rid of Vernon Wells' contract, they should do it even if it entails taking back a vat of swine flu. It's a mistake to buy into the notion that Wells is somehow holding the team back from being a contender all by himself, however. It's the general idea that spending is the only way to compete. There has to be more building. Dealing Wells isn't likely to happen, which means they should settle for finding someone to trade for Lyle Overbay.

He's not too expensive at $7 million, but he's not going to make a difference for them while the farm system could use whatever help it can get. Most of the Jays' arbitration-eligible players are ones they'd like to keep, with the possible exceptions of reliever Jeremy Accardo and outfielder Jose Bautista. In an unexpected (and, to be honest, unwanted) benefit, starters like Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan will actually come cheaper because of injury questions.

On top of money owed to players still on the team, the Blue Jays still have to pay B.J. Ryan $10 million after releasing him during the season. That's another sign of the danger of committing big money for big years when you don't have or avail yourself of Boston and New York's ability to simply swallow the costs.

Offseason Goals

Some might call the above recommendations rebuilding, but that's not an appropriate phrase. Given the lack of success and a strong organizational blueprint in recent years, it would actually be building. One of the first things Anthopoulos said the Jays would do this offseason is beef up their scouting staff. That's a good sign, because the Jays need to beef up the strength of their organization from the bottom up instead of worrying about adding big names who will do nothing other than finish in third or fourth place. Tearing things down now and steadily building the payroll back up as you develop your own stars is absolutely the best route for this franchise.