Nothing Wrong With Belichick's Gamble

According to Internet polls, phone surveys, insulted ex-players and media analysts, Bill Belichick just sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees.

His decision to go for it on fourth down against the Colts was the dumbest move in Boston, if not world history.

"Belichick Gaffe Unrivaled" declared the Boston Globe.

Call me stupid, but I'd still rank it below the Red Sox selling Ruth to the Yankees for $125,000. And with all due respect to those who think Belichick should be involuntarily committed, I wouldn't even call what he Sunday night did a gaffe.

It was the right move for the simplest of reasons.

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"I do what I think is best for our football team to win," Belichick said Monday.

That has proven quite hard for Tedy Bruschi and plenty of others to comprehend. To them the call wasn't merely controversial, it was indefensible.

"The decision to go for it would be enough to make my blood boil for weeks," said Bruschi, the Pats' linebacker legend now retired to ESPN.

You'd think Belichick just traded Tom Brady for JaMarcus Russell. No doubt, it was surprising to watch Brady line up in the shotgun on fourth-and-two with a little more than two minutes left Sunday night. In case you haven't seen one of the 24,693 replays, Kevin Faulk bobbled the catch and the play gained approximately 1.99 yards.

"Bill Belichick sent a message to his defense," Bruschi said. "He felt that his chances were better to go for it on his own 28-yard line than to punt it away and make Peyton Manning have to drive the majority of the field to win the game."

You know why Belichick felt his chances were better, Tedy?

They were.

A conversion on 4th-and-2 is successful 60 percent of the time. A team needing a touchdown to win or tie in final two minutes gets it 53 percent of the time. Going for it gave the Patriots a 79 percent probability of winning. That was higher than any other option Belichick had with 2:08 remaining and a 34-28 lead.

Belichick feared the Colts would score if they got the ball anywhere. That may offend the sensibilities of his current and former defensive players, but you know what? Tough.
I failed high school Algebra, so please don't ask me to extrapolate further. I got this from a New York Times statistical analysis, and I still have enough faith in the Times to get such things right.

I know what you're saying. Math Schmath!

The more turf between Manning and the end zone, the better. But the way the game was going, it wouldn't have mattered if the Colts got the ball on New England's 28 or in the Lucas Oil Stadium parking lot.

The Patriots' defense was on fumes, and Indy had plenty of time and timeouts. The best way to lock up the win was to keep the ball away from Manning.

The odds said New England's fourth-down play should have done that. The fact it didn't does not make Belichick a self-absorbed ignoramus.

"Hubris" was the operative phrase with the Monday Morning QBs. The fact is Belichick truly is the smartest guy in the NFL room. That's irritating to those of us who don't particularly like grumps who look like they sleep under a bridge, but I've learned to channel my resentment toward Randy Moss.

Belichick's made plenty of unorthodox decisions over his career. Some have worked, others haven't. But on balance, who would you rather have making the calls for your team?

"As a former defender on that team, I would've cared less about the result of that fourth-down attempt," Bruschi said. "I would look at this decision as a lack of confidence in our ability as a defensive unit to come up with a big play to win the game."

Rodney Harrison chimed in on NBC that it was "the worst coaching decision I've ever seen Bill Belichick make."

But after a slow start, Manning had just torched the Patriots with two quick 79-yard drives. His biggest concern after getting the ball was scoring too soon and leaving Brady enough time to win.

One last Bruschi Blast: "Right now, every member of the defense is wishing they had the chance to stop Manning and the Colts."

Hey Tedy, they did.

You could make the argument that Belichick showed more faith in his defense by going for it. The Colts still needed 29 yards to win, and he figured his defense was up to the task.

You could make that argument, but you'd be wrong. Belichick feared the Colts would score if they got the ball anywhere. That may offend the sensibilities of his current and former defensive players, but you know what?

Tough.

If guys like Bruschi and Harrison hadn't gotten old and retired, Belichick probably would have punted.

"Everyone's entitled to their opinion out there," he said.

Should Belichick be second-guessed?

Of course.

Would most other coaches have done it?

No way.

Would he do it again?

"You only get one chance," Belichick said.

And he took the right one, even if it turned out wrong.