Footprints in the Snow: Reds

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2010.

The Reds are at a crossroads. They've compiled some nice young talent at the major league level with guys like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Johnny Cueto (plus the injured Edinson Volquez) and they have some prospects close to the big leagues in Drew Stubbs and Yonder Alonso, but that might not be enough to get them quite over the top in 2010.

This winter the Reds have to decide what to do with their roster. Should they keep some of their older, more expensive players and gun for what might be a weak division, or should they sell off on the veterans and try to rebuild a core around the younger guys before they leave town?

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Who Might Leave

Kip Wells, RHP

Shopping List

With Bruce, Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen, the Reds certainly do not need a right fielder, first baseman, second baseman, or third baseman. They're likely going to go with Drew Stubbs in center field this year, but their options in left field right now are probably limited to Jonny Gomes, Wladimir Balentien, Chris Dickerson, Darnell McDonald, and Willy Taveras. Gomes will get some time after playing well last year, and it might be worth their time to give Balentien at-bats, but he's a Wily Mo Pena clone, with a ton of power and not much in the way of anything else.

They could also use an upgrade over Paul Janish at shortstop. Janish has a very good glove, but his bat is atrocious. He's only 27, though, so there's probably some room for improvement over his (gulp) .601 OPS, which would make him at least as good an option as the Adam Everetts of the world if he keeps up his good glovework. Their pitching staff is also quite thin with Edinson Volquez out for 2010 with Tommy John surgery, though that situation is complicated (as we'll discuss below).

Money Matters

This is where the Reds run into trouble. In 2010, they owe Francisco Cordero $12 million, Aaron Harang $12.5 million, Scott Rolen $11 million, Bronson Arroyo $11 million, and Brandon Phillips $6.75 million. That's a lot of cash for a small-market club, and in the cases of Harang and Arroyo, it's a lot of cash for not a lot of production. The Reds would obviously love to dump either one of their two salary burdens for some relief, but because there probably won't be many takers our own Ed Price recently reported that they may be forced to trade someone productive like Brandon Phillips or first-time arbitration-eligible Joey Votto.

For his part, GM Walt Jocketty is denying that and practically taunting his critics with a $3 million extension for Ramon Hernandez, who only played in half of the Reds games with a .699 OPS last year. If Jocketty does have to sell off one of his productive players, he'll only have himself to blame after trading for Scott Rolen's $11 million deal even though Rolen is injury prone and far from the last piece of the puzzle for the Reds. Why make that trade if it necessitates one that hurts the club's already slim 2010 chances?

The other potential problem those contracts create is that the Reds' payroll for 2010 is already around $62 million after the Hernandez signing, just about $9 million smaller than their Opening Day payroll last year. That doesn't include contracts for Gomes or effective relievers Jared Burton and Nick Masset, who are all arbitration eligible this winter. Having to non-tender Laynce Nix (which they'll almost certainly do) is one thing, but being forced to drop any of those other three would be detrimental to the club.

What seems more than likely to happen this winter is the Reds selling low on Harang or Arroyo, essentially paying a team to take one of their two high-salaried veterans off of their roster. That might give them some payroll flexibility, but it'll be a huge dent in a Volquez-less rotation.

Offseason Goals

I think the Reds' biggest goal this offseason is to simultaneously dump one of their two overpaid starters without weakening the rotation. If money is a problem for them, they at least have a chance to fill their holes in the outfield and shortstop internally, but beyond Cueto and Bailey, there's not much their system has to offer in terms of pitching. The problem for them is that it won't be easy to find someone willing to take Arroyo or Harang without the Reds paying a lot of their salary, and so the amount of money freed up by a trade would probably be minimal.