Week 11 NFL Picks: Colts Goin' Down

Let's get right to it: the Indianapolis Colts will lose for the first time this week in Baltimore, where they played for 34 years until the current owners father packed up the moving vans in the middle of one winter night and headed for Indianapolis.

There are numerous reasons I think this, including the emotion and energy the Colts spent in coming back from two 17-point deficits to beat New England last Sunday night. But the main reason I think Indy will lose is that it has a lot less to play for than the Ravens.

The Colts are favored by one point, so the Vegas guys recognize that this isn't a walkover. And they also seem to recognize that Baltimore's rather lackluster effort in Cleveland Sunday night may have had more to do with the dismal opposition than a lack of form.

Motivation?

The Colts will win the AFC North, as they almost always do.

They are likely to get home-field advantage in the AFC -- they lead Cincinnati by two games already for that honor. And, frankly, they don't seem to care very much about finishing unbeaten in the regular season as long as they're unbeaten in the playoffs. In past years when they had long unbeaten runs to start the season, they always said a title was more important. And their former coach, Tony Dungy, said on NBC Sunday night "... when they rest people late in the season,'' a statement that implies there will be no reason to play hard late.

So let's make this loss number one against a team that knows it probably will have to settle for a wild-card spot and work hard to get even that.

And don't discount the extra noise they'll encounter from fans who still remember the Irsay family's defection. They may respect No. 18 of the Colts but he'll never replace No. 19 in their hearts.

Colts at Ravens (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts	- 1	24
Baltimore Ravens		27

No line because Kyle Orton has a sprained ankle. Denver has no shot with the rusty Chris Simms, a slightly better one with a gimpy Orton.

Chargers at Broncos

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Diego Chargers	No Line	20
Denver Broncos		6

Rex Ryan cried this week instead of woofing at the Patriots. Bill Belichick mumbled, as he always did. And gave a perfectly rational explanation for going for that first down. He won't need to this week.

Jets at Patriots

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Jets		20
New England Patriots	- 10	34

This is the kind of game I like to watch (I'm not kidding).

Browns at Lions

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cleveland Browns		2
Detroit Lions	- 3 1/2	11

The Giants have lost four straight. That will end, but so will a much more bizarre streak: the visiting team has won the last 12 games in this series going back to 1979.

Falcons at Giants

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons		18
New York Giants	- 6 1/2	27

;

Eagles at Bears (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles	- 3	31
Chicago Bears		13

Titans at Texans (Monday

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tennessee Titans		29
Houston Texans	- 4 1/2	30

Bills at Jaguars

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Buffalo Bills		10
Jacksonville Jaguars	- 8 1/2	16

Redskins at Cowboys

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		13
Dallas Cowboys	- 11	20

Dolphins at Panthers (Thurs.)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins		20
Carolina Panthers	- 3	29

Steelers at Chiefs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 10	27
Kansas City Chiefs		5

Bengals at Raiders

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals	- 9 1/2	21
Oakland Raiders		3

Seahawks at Vikings

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks		10
Minnesota Vikings	- 11	31

Saints at Bucs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	- 11	35
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		17

Cardinals at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals	- 9	37
St. Louis Rams		19

49ers at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Francisco 49ers		13
Green Bay Packers	- 6 1/2	16

LAST WEEK: 9-6 (spread), 8-7 (straight up)

SEASON: 81-62-2 (spread), 95-50 (straight up)

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