2-on-1: Playoff Pretenders & Contenders

Every Monday during the season two of our hockey writers will debate one topic. It's the 2-on-1. This week, Chris Botta and Adam Gretz break down who's for real and who isn't at the quarter-pole of the NHL season.

Chris Botta: In dealing with contenders and pretenders, Adam, let's start off with a pair of teams that no one in our business had sniffing the playoffs. I'm talking, of course, about the Colorado Avalanche and the New York Islanders. My position is that we are still at least another 20 games away from knowing if they are legitimate contenders for playoff berths. However, both should be congratulated for already making something of their seasons when everyone thought they'd be playing for Taylor Hall. Do you think the Avalanche and Islanders are for real as playoff contenders?

Adam Gretz: Yeah, I figured the draft lottery would be the only thing these teams would be playing for this season, but if I had to pick one as a serious playoff contender right now, I think I'd still lean toward Colorado, even with their rough stretch over the past two weeks.

I think the Islanders deserve a ton of credit for what they've been able to do this season because even when they're not winning, they're still in just about every game. But when I look at the roster I just don't see a serious playoff contender. At least not yet. Especially in a division that has Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New Jersey and the Rangers. I just can't see the Islanders competing with that group all season, especially with some of the other improved teams around the Eastern Conference.

"I said to captain Shane Doan, 'I don't think you guys are The Little Team That Could.' He said, 'Shush, don't tell anyone. I know we've got a good team, but we don't want anyone to know it.'"
-- Christopher Botta on the Coyotes' Solid Start Of course, that's not to say that Colorado is a slam-dunk playoff team, either, but of the two, I think the Avs have a better shot. Especially since they don't have to compete with the Atlantic Division teams.

Chris Botta: I agree that the 'Lanche have the better shot of the two teams right now. Unless Garth Snow decides to use -- or is allowed to use -- the $147 million in cap space he has to acquire a veteran defenseman and maybe also a solid forward, the Islanders are not quite ready for prime time. That's far from the end of the world. Thanks to John Tavares being even better as a 19-year-old than most thought, the Islanders are actually ahead of schedule.

There are three other teams in the East surpassing expectations: Ottawa, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. My feeling is the Lightning are the least surprising. When your lineup starts with three studs like Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Vincent Lecavalier, as long as you get decent goaltending you should be able to contend for a seventh or eighth seed. Cory Clouston has done a fine job with the Senators, and that's with Jason Spezza not scoring. I'm telling you, Adam, I don't know how much you have seen of the Thrashers, but they are fun to watch. I'll admit that part of me is rooting for them because John Anderson's style has a lot of entertainment value.

Are you a true believer in Ottawa, Tampa Bay or Atlanta? I should add that it's hard to get a read these days. Let's face it: with the shootout, a record like the Bolts' unwieldy 8-4-7 doesn't always provide the most accurate picture.

Adam Gretz: Of the three teams you mentioned, I'm definitely a believer in Atlanta. Before the season I had them as a contender for the No. 8 playoff spot (and John Anderson was my sleeper for coach of the year). Not saying they'll get in, but I think they can hang around, especially if they keep Kovalchuk (even if it's a Jay Bouwmeester-desperation attempt that ends up blowing up in their faces). I think their top-four on defense is as good as they've ever had, and Maxim Afinogenov is actually scoring some goals. If they ever get Bryan Little going again I think this could absolutely be a dangerous team at the bottom of the playoff picture.

I think the biggest surprise out of those three, to me, is Ottawa. Here's a team that didn't have any offense to speak of a season ago when they had a two-time 50-goal scorer in the lineup. Take Dany Heatley's production out of that equation and I figured the bottom would just fall out. Mike Fisher has had a nice bounceback season, and Michalek seems like he's starting to settle in as well.

Still, at the quarter point, if I had to rank them in order of playoff probability I think I'd go 1) Atlanta, 2) Ottawa, 3) Tampa Bay.

Chris Botta: This is the part of our conversation where I'd want to take a reverse-angle look and talk about the teams in the East we thought would be good but are near the bottom of the pack. Fact is, there aren't any. The only top-talent team that has only been so-so is Boston, but for all the Bruins' struggles they are 10-8-2 and in the top eight. When they get Marc Savard back, they should climb higher. So let's move on to the West.

Besides Colorado, the other happy surprise in Phoenix. While the Coyotes are a nice Cinderella tale for their Slap Shot, who-ownz-the-team existence, a record of 13-9-2 seems about right for them. They have talent, experience and one of the best goalies in Ilya Bryzgalov.

When they were in New York a few weeks ago, about a half-dozen reporters showed up at the Coyotes' morning skate at the Garden to write the obligatory stories about how they're overcoming the odds and some unique circumstances. I said to captain Shane Doan, "I don't think you guys are the Little Team That Could." He said, "Shush, don't tell anyone. I know we've got a good team, but we don't want anyone to know it."

Adam Gretz: Funny you mention the Coyotes and people showing up to write about them. I saw them in Pittsburgh during the second week of the season and there was nobody there covering them. I think the post-game locker room session had me, an AP reporter and one Phoenix radio guy. It was almost as if people had already given up on them.

For me, I'm kind of shocked by the slow starts from Anaheim and St. Louis. With the Blues, they overcame injuries to just about every player on the roster last year (or so it seemed) and found themselves in the top-six of the Western Conference. I figured that with a healthy team, young guys having another year of experience (playoff experience) under their belts would be huge. But here we are. I'm not sure if it can be blamed on the European hangover or expectations that might have been too high coming in, but a .500 record isn't what I had this team pegged at. Not at all. On the plus side, David Perron is starting to pick it up but guys like Patrick Berglund and T.J. Oshie have been rather large disappointments.

Speaking of which, what's up with the Anaheim Ducks? Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are looking great, but they currently have the worst record in the Western Conference, third-worst overall. This is a team that knocked out the team that won the Presidents Trophy last year, and took Detroit to a Game 7. I think in the long run the Chris Pronger trade could really benefit them, not only with Luca Sbisa, but the boatload of first-round picks, but in the short term their defense has gone from a rather menacing group to one that is far less intimidating.

Chris Botta: You nailed it, Adam. There are several nice surprises this year -- Colorado and the rest of the team we've mentioned. The Ducks are really the only major disappointment so far. Wouldn't it be something if they decide to re-tool and move Scott Niedermayer to a contender for another package of picks and prospects, like they got for Pronger? On the bright side, Anaheim could re-build in two trades. I don't like their chances of turning around their season in a significant way. When Niedermayer started thinking about a trade and Jean-Sebastian Giguere said he'd rather retire than be a backup -- I would love to see the Ducks call his bluff -- it just doesn't seem to be their season.

Rapid Fire time. Individual performances at the quarter pole:

Biggest Surprises: Chris -- Matt Moulson, Maxim Afinogenov; Adam -- Moulson, of course, and Dustin Penner.

Biggest Duds: Chris -- Jason Spezza (one goal in 18 games), Michal Rozsival (sixth d-man making $5 million a year); Adam -- Mike Komisarek.

Player Most Likely to Take Off: Chris -- Phil Kessel; Adam -- Evgeni Malkin has been off to a slow start, he's due to bust out.