Frauds Outed in El Foldo Sweepstakes

As Houston was in the process of taking a 17-0 lead over Indianapolis on Sunday, Peyton Manning sat calmly on the Colts' bench, chatting with offensive coordinator Tom Moore. No look of panic, not even of concern. With good reason. The unbeaten Colts got 35 of the next 38 points and eventually won the game 35-27, leaving the Texans in the midst of another fold, one they couldn't blame on Kris or Chris Brown.

"We don't get overexcited certainly when things aren't going the way we want them to," Manning said after the game. "We don't panic, we don't yell, we don't throw helmets. We just try to put the series behind us and move on to the next one. There was a lot of that,."

You can say the opposite about the Texans, who are now 5-6.

Houston has never been better than 8-8 since rejoining the league in 2002. This was supposed to be the year it would break .500 and make the playoffs. Maybe it can, but Sunday's loss was the 15th in 16 tries to Indy and continued a slide that includes a series of late losses, including one to the Colts two weeks ago when Kris Brown missed a game-tying field goal with seconds to go.

In this game, the turning point may have come early in the second quarter when Matt Schaub threw what looked like a perfect pass to Andre Johnson in the end zone and it fell out as Johnson was falling. Replay confirmed it was a drop, and Houston had to settle for a field goal that put it up 17-0.

Then the air came out. At halftime, the Texans still led 20-7, but you had the sense that Indy was ahead.

Like every team, the Texans have injuries, including to both starting guards and tight end Owen Daniels -- next to Johnson, their most important receiver. Worse is the fact that when things go wrong, they escalate, which doesn't happen with winning teams. Fire the coach? It would be interesting if they let Gary Kubiak go and hired Mike Shanahan, his longtime mentor and the father of his offensive coordinator.

The Texans aren't alone.

The Bears and Giants, who entered the season with higher expectations, are right there with them. Or ahead of them in the El Foldo Sweepstakes. Blame injuries, blame overinflated hopes, blame the coaching, but none of them are where they or their fans thought they would be with five games to go in the regular season.

And Baltimore, while very much alive for an AFC wild-card spot, had to go to overtime at home to beat Pittsburgh and its third-string quarterback. It still has games at Green Bay and at Pittsburgh, and the way it's playing, can lose to anyone.

But the Giants and Bears are in worse shape.

After the Giants (6-5) won their first five, four of them in dominant fashion or close to it, they were at or near the top in all those "power rankings'' that have become so fashionable. We should have noticed that the only good team they beat was Dallas. The other victims were Washington, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland, who currently have a combined record of 10-34. They've now lost five of six, beating Atlanta in a game they won only because they won the coin toss at the start of overtime after giving up a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead.

This is close to being the same team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago and started 11-1 last year, one reason for the great expectations. It even has a promising young receiving crops that includes Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks in place of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, who with Smith, were the three main pass-catchers in the 2007-08 postseason.

But the offensive line is older and playing tired, Brandon Jacobs is running like he just got a big paycheck, and the defense gets little push up the middle, making the pass rush a lot less dangerous. You don't think of Jay Alford as a key loss, but he is by far the best pass rusher among the interior linemen and he's been on IR since training camp. Kenny Phillips, the second-year safety, is another big loss -- he went on IR after two interceptions against the Cowboys in Week 2. The biggest loss? Probably defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, now the coach of the Rams.

After they were embarrassed 26-6 on Thanksgiving in Denver, there were a lot of meetings. What came out of them? No one's saying. But if Bill Sheridan, who succeeded Spagnuolo, is still around after the season, it only will be if things have been turned completely around. That's unlikely.

Their record puts them in the middle of the playoff chase. The way they're playing, they're not.

And that doesn't even take into account reports that Eli Manning has a new foot injury that if aggravated could end his season. That's one to speculate about IF it happens -- in 2007, Manning was supposed to be out six weeks after injuring a shoulder in the opener. He didn't miss a game, and the Giants won the Super Bowl.

He might not miss a game this season but they won't win the Super Bowl.

As for Chicago ...

With Jay Cutler in town to end a quarterback problem that had existed for 50 years, the Bears (4-7) were considered in some quarters the co-favorites with the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North. They were downgraded considerably when they lost Brian Urlacher, the leader of the defense both spiritually and physically on opening night in Green Bay, but they still figured to contend for a playoff berth. Presumably because Cutler could carry them.

But the quarterback has been a turnover machine. He has 20 interceptions, 15 of them in the last seven games. Six of those have been losses, which tells you where this team is headed. They also are similar to the Giants in that a lot of people assume that this is the team that went to the Super Bowl three seasons ago. A lot of the players are the same, but they're older and slower.

It's not all Cutler's fault. In Denver, he had Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley. In Chicago, the only receiver he appears to trust is Greg Olsen, the tight end -- and the No. 1 receiver is Devin Hester, a return man. Worse, making Hester a full-time player has eroded his return skills. Oh yes, and the offensive line is old, slow and banged up -- even St. Louis knew that Orlando Pace was done. That has negated the running game; Matt Forte, who rushed for 1,238 yards, a 3.9 average, is averaging just 3.2 per carry this year.