The Jacques Lemaire Effect: Part 1

A couple of weeks ago, following a game with Jacques Lemaire's New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins beat writer Rob Rossi penned a column for the Tribune-Review defending the much-maligned neutral zone trap, praising the strategy and discipline it requires, and how Lemaire's players are almost never out of position in his system. Speaking of which, during the summer we spoke with Minnesota Wild director of hockey operations Chris Snow, who talked briefly about Lemaire's on-ice strategy and how he didn't want his team to have a breakdown in a high-percentage scoring area (such as the area between the faceoff dots).

Back in October, we took a quick look at how the Wild were performing this season in the defensive zone now that Lemaire is no longer behind the bench. It was a rather small sample size of just eight games, but now that we're a quarter of the way through the season I wanted to check back in and see how the Minnesota defense was progressing in its new system, and also see what effect, if any, Lemaire has had on the defensive play in New Jersey.

Let's call it the Jacques Lemaire Effect.

Minnesota Wild

The numbers after 25 games (through Friday's game).

Shots allowed (per game)
2008-09: 683 (27.3)
2009-10: 690 (27.6)

Goals allowed (per game)
2008-09: 53 (2.12)
2009-10: 70 (2.80)

Not much has changed from our first update with Minnesota: it's giving up an almost identical number of shots through the same number of games, but it's also giving up far more goals.

From a personnel standpoint, the top-six Minnesota defenseman from a season ago in terms of ice-time per game were Kim Johnsson, Brent Burns, Marek Zidlicky, Nick Schultz, Martin Skoula and Marc-Andre Bergeron. This year, the top-four are the same (though, Johnsson has missed seven games) while shot-blocking specialist Greg Zanon and Shane Hnidy have replaced Skoula and Bergeron.

On paper, that should be an upgrade defensively.

Where are the goals coming from? The blue marks are goals allowed last season, while the red X's are goals allowed this season.

The goals appear to be coming from similar spots on the ice, but they're obviously giving up more despite allowing the same number of shots. This likely means one of two things:

1) Niklas Backstrom isn't playing as well between the pipes. Just looking at the traditional goaltending stats, Backstrom's save percentage has dropped from the .923 mark he had a season ago, down to .910 through the his first 21 appearances this season. Still a high level, but not quite the Vezina-type numbers he was putting up a year ago.

His backup, Josh Harding, has been hit-or-miss in his four starts (two awful ones, two good ones).

2) Even though they're giving up the same number of shots, the shots they're allowing are higher quality shots (better scoring chances), and, obviously, resulting in more goals against.

New Jersey Devils

The numbers through 24 games.

Shots allowed (per game)
2008-09: 666 (27.7)
2009-10: 668 (27.8)

Goals allowed (per game)
2008-09: 59 (2.4)
2009-10: 50 (2.0)

Just like in Minnesota, the shot totals are nearly identical, but unlike in Minnesota, the goals allowed have decreased slightly (almost a half goal less per game).

There's a couple of things to keep in mind with the Devils comparison. Last season they played much of the first half without the services of future Hall of Fame goaltender Martin Brodeur, and instead relied on the two-headed monster of Scott Clemmensen and Kevin Weekes (and, to be fair, they played quite well in Brodeur's absence).

This year, the Devils have had Brodeur all season, but have been without two of their top defensemen in Paul Martin and Johnny Oduya. Still, it's a fascinating comparison to see where the goals are coming from.

The blue marks are goals allowed this year, the red X's are goals allowed last year.

The Devils have almost completely shut down the soft spot between the circles, especially when compared to the number of goals they allowed from that same area a season ago.

Is it Lemaire's system keeping the play on the perimeter? Or is it a matter of Martin Brodeur being a significantly better goaltender than Clemmensen and Weekes, and stopping whatever high-percentage shots the Devils are allowing?

It's probably a combination of the two, but it's hard to look at these two charts and not believe that Lemaire is every bit the defensive mastermind he's portrayed to be. I'm going to continue to track this throughout the season and update later in the year.