Braves Take Calculated Risk on Wagner

When the Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner on Wednesday to a one-year, $7 million contract, the team took a proactive approach towards solving a potential problem in their bullpen.

Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, the duo who shared closing responsibilities last season, have both been offered arbitration. It's possible that one or both of these pitchers could leave and sign a contract with another team. Since the Braves brought in Wagner, losing either of these two top-notch relief pitchers might not hurt so bad.

It may actually be beneficial to the Braves if either or both turn down arbitration offers and leave Atlanta.

It turns out that in signing Wagner the Braves were forced to give up their 2010 first-round draft pick as compensation to the Boston Red Sox. Since Soriano and Gonzalez are also Type-A free agents, if they left Atlanta the teams that signed them would cede their first-round picks to the Braves in 2010.

There is, however, a flip side to this coin -- a situation that could really hurt the Braves. It's highly unlikely that either Soriano or Gonzalez will accept the Braves' offer of arbitration. In fact, the Braves likely signed Wagner because the team knows or expects that neither will be back in Atlanta. But, what happens on the off chance that they did accept the club's offer?

This would be a truly devastating turn of events because if either Soriano or Gonzalez accepts the arbitration offer they receive from Atlanta, the Braves would be stuck with another expensive reliever (or in a complete doomsday scenario, two).

Wagner has somewhat set the bar for game-stopping relief pitchers on the open market with his $7 million deal.

It is expected that Soriano will fetch a one- or two-year deal in the $6 to $7 million range and Gonzalez could get a similarly structured contract. If the Braves are forced to bring back these pitchers and pay them a combined $12 to $14 million in 2010, the team would have no room to compete in the bidding wars for the middle-of-the-order hitters that Atlanta desperately needs.

A bullpen that consisted of Wagner, Soriano and Gonzalez would be the envy of Major League Baseball, but without a power hitter the Braves may still be a step or two out of the playoff picture.

The best-case scenario is for both pitchers to sign with other teams. This would leave the Braves with a closer in Wagner, two compensatory first-round picks, two supplemental picks later in the draft and some money to go out and find a big hitter. It would still leave the team short a setup guy, but there are options available in free agency to fill that need.