Dirty Dozen: Wait Until End of Season to Pick an MVP

Back in 1997, when I was one of the people helping run the season-ending honors vote for the Associated Press, we counted the ballots after 15 games. Why? I don't know. Except that for large organizations (bureaucracies), momentum rules: we did it because we'd always done it that way.

Change came in 1998 because of what happened with that '97 MVP vote, when Brett Favre and Barry Sanders tied for the honor -- the AP poll is the one officially recognized by the NFL. They wouldn't have tied if we'd waited until after the final game, when Sanders rushed for 184 yards to single-handedly get the Lions into the playoffs (yes, kiddies, Detroit actually has made the postseason). Afterward, several folks, including a Favre voter from Detroit (congratulations to a non-homer) acknowledged they would have gone for Sanders if the balloting was a week later.

So why are we talking about the MVP after 11 games this season?

Because that's what we do now, 24/7 -- radio, TV, web, Twitter and what's left of newspapers. We speculate in September what might happen, throw out new names as they emerge and listen to fans who throw in their favorite offensive linemen as candidates.

This week's hot name is the aforementioned Favre, who could win his fourth MVP, a record -- although it would be his third if that '97 vote had been done the right way and Sanders had won it outright. Of course, Peyton Manning could win his fourth, too, including a tie with Steve McNair in 2003.

But since people love lists and because they love to speculate, here's what the ballot could look like. With an added anti-ballot, the guys who might have been candidates but who are anything but.

Top 6

1. Brett Favre, Minnesota: This pains me, since I was one of those people who, for the last two seasons, just wanted Favre to stay in Hattiesburg. Great career, Hall of Famer, go away. Instead, at age 40, he's playing like he did 12 years ago when he was 28 (yes, I know most of you can do the math). The Vikings got him to supplement a team that had everything else and that's what he's doing. Bonus: only three interceptions from a guy who's the NFL's career leader in picks. The Vikings have one loss, but you can argue that they're as good or better than the two unbeatens: New Orleans and Indianapolis.

2, 3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis, Drew Brees, New Orleans: I can't separate them. The only reason I put Favre ahead of them is that he took a good team and made it outstanding. Manning's Colts have been good for years and the Saints' MVP might be defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who remade a unit that was the reason they were 8-8 last season when Brees was equally good.

4. Chris Johnson, Tennessee: My esteemed FanHouse colleague Michael David Smith pairs him with Vince Young, which is legit. Vince is 5-0 and the Titans' comeback coincides with his installation as the starting QB. But Vince still sat for half the season and you can argue that, if he made Chris what he is, so did Chris make Vince. And a bow to Kenny Britt, coming along nicely, as rookie receivers tend to do late in seasons. (No, I'm not pushing Kenny for anything, not even offensive rookie, which belongs to Percy Harvin.) Anyway, Johnson is the closest thing to Barry Sanders I've seen since Barry -- and he doesn't lose three, gain two, lose two, then run for 80 like Sanders did. He runs for 80, but those losses aren't there.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati: I could make this Philip Rivers, who's been ignored, but I'm tired of QBs. Benson falls into the "escape from the Bears'' category. Maybe Chicago should stop drafting offensive players (or trading for them). They almost always fizzle. When the Bears win, it's on defense. Which is one reason they're not winning this season, but that's another story.

6. Ray Rice, Baltimore: He's being compared to all sorts of people -- from Sanders to Johnson. I think of him as Tiki Barber, who was playing about 25 miles north when Ray was at Rutgers (and about 15 miles southwest when Ray was at New Rochelle HS in New York.) He's rushed for 821 yards and has 61 catches for 582 more. Barberian numbers. Watch his route on the fourth-down pass that led to the game-tying field goal against Pittsburgh Sunday night. Tiki Barber.

Honorable Mention: Charles Woodson, Green Bay: I'm going with the esteemed Packers blogger Aaron Nagler. Why go with a Packers blogger on a Packer? Because Aaron is hard on a lot of them. He didn't like Clay Matthews at the start of the year when a lot of NFL people thought Matthews was the best of the rookie linebackers from Southern Cal. Turns out Brian Cushing may be a little better, but Matthews is good. So is Woodson, who at age 33 is playing as he did when he won the Heisman at Michigan. It's hard to be an impact player at cornerback, but Woodson is one.

Bottom 6

And the players with high expectations who haven't come close to living up to them: .

1. Jay Cutler, Chicago: The guy is talented. But even with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley, he forced too much. With Devin Hester as a No. 1 receiver, he has 20 interceptions, 15 in the last seven games. Yes, the Bears' OL is bad -- build it, don't plug holes with Orlando Pace. But Cutler tries to win too many games by himself and whined his way out of Denver, not a good sign. My favorite scout never liked him -- said there had to be flaws in a guy redshirted as a freshman at a school like Vanderbilt that needed all the help it could get. Come to think of it, the Bears offense has three starters from Vanderbilt. It means they're smart, but .... football-wise?

2. Roy Williams, Dallas: What was Jerry thinking when the Lions were so willing to give up this guy? Miles Austin, a free agent from Monmouth, is much better, so Roy found it necessary to whine that Tony Romo preferred to throw to Miles. He has 26 catches and four TDs in 11 games. That's not a No. 1 receiver.

3. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Take the money and run, from the Woody Allen movie of the same name. Jacobs took $13 million guaranteed and hasn't run. Extenuating circumstances? What was supposed to be one of the NFL's best OLs hasn't played like it, but then Jacobs hasn't run like a $13 million man either. His first two years as a starter, he averaged five yards a carry. This season, it's 3.9. No holes? He used to make his own. Now he tiptoes into the back of Shaun O'Hara and Rich Seubert..

4. Braylon Edwards, New York Jets: There were reasons a team as bad as the Browns had been trying to dump him for two years. Since becoming a Jet, he has 20 catches in seven games. He has a proportionate number of drops. Franchise receiver?

5. Matt Schaub, Houston: The term "coach killer'' is defined by a player who is good enough to stay on the field but does enough bad things to cost coaches their jobs. Gary Kubiak got a "we'll see'' vote of "confidence'' from Texans owner Bob McNair this week. If Schaub could close out games, the Texans might be 8-3, on their way to their first playoff berth and Kubiak's job would be safe.

6. Anquan Boldin, Arizona: Maybe unfair. Maybe he's being worn down by injuries -- under this season's concussion rules, he probably wouldn't have been allowed back last year after that horrific hit against the Jets. But maybe he's worn out from whining so often that he wanted to be traded. Nine TDs in 2007, 11 TDs in 2008, when he came back admirably from a horrific injury. Two TDs this year and a lot less impact. Steve Breaston may be more valuable in Arizona.