Big East Picks: End of Road for Bearcats

PITTSBURGH – "The Road" is a tremendous, tremendous novel written by Cormac McCarthy that's been made into a movie (haven't seen it yet).

It's set in an unknown time in the future and about a father and son walking through a future America that's been decimated by an unknown cataclysm. The scenery is grim and dreary and -- I'm finally getting to the point -- parts of the movie were filmed in and around Pittsburgh.

The Road to the Big East title ends Saturday in Pittsburgh when the No. 14 ranked Panthers play host to No. 5 Cincinnati. Temperatures are only expected to reach 36 degrees for the high noon showdown at a sold-out Heinz Field.

The Panthers and Bearcats battle for the Big East title and the league's BCS bowl berth. Who says it's required you have to have 12 league members to stage a conference championship game on the first Saturday in December?

The Bearcats (11-0, 6-0 Big East) have already clinched at least a share of the Big East title, but are trying to become the league's first team to win consecutive outright conference championships since Miami in 2001-02. The Panthers (9-2, 5-1) are seeking their first BCS bowl since sharing the 2004 Big East title and playing in the Fiesta Bowl.

Cincinnati ranks No. 1 in the league in passing and total offense, while Pitt owns the league's top rushing offense and No. 2 overall offense. Defense is the biggest difference between the teams. Pitt has the league's No. 1 defense and Cincinnati ranks only fifth.

The Bearcats are two-point favorites to complete their perfect 12-0 season. However the road -- you guessed it -- ends here. Pittsburgh, with the better running game and defense, pulls off the slight upset.

Onto the rest of my Big East picks. Despite starting the year worse than Rutgers in its season opener against Cincinnati, I have rallied from a 10-17 hole, against the number, by hitting 17 of the last 27, including 10-5 in the past four weeks to miraculously get to the .500 mark.

West Virginia at Rutgers: Since the season-opening blowout loss to Cincinnati, the Scarlet Knights have lost only twice in their last 10 games – a seven-point loss to Pittsburgh and an 18-point stinker at Syracuse (the league's biggest upset this season). West Virginia is coming off the Backyard Brawl upset and understandably could suffer a letdown. Also -- win or lose -- the Mountaineers are already locked into the Gator Bowl, so there is little incentive there. The bigger concern, however, will be WVU's run defense. In the Mountaineers' first seven games, they allowed opponents only 2.75 yards per carry. In the past four games, they're allowing 5.3 yards per carry. Even Rutgers, with the Big East's third-worst rushing offense, should be able to take advantage. Rutgers covers the 1½ points.

USF at UConn: Back in 2000, the Bulls, in only the program's fourth-year of existence, actually picked up their first-ever victory against a Division I-A team by winning at UConn 21-13. The schools became annual opponents when USF joined the Big East in 2005 and USF has been favored in each game between 3 and 7 points, but the teams have split the last four meetings. Saturday, they meet in East Hartford and UConn -- not USF -- is favored by 7½ points. Has UConn suddenly gotten that much better than the Bulls or is that a reaction to another USF late-season slide, losing four of last six by 21, 31, 27 and 17 points? USF struggled at East Hartford in past years when it had the better team, so how will they do Saturday night in windy, 30-degree temperatures? Not well. UConn covers the 7½.

Last Week: 4-1 (straight up); 4-1 (against the spread)

Season: 54-11 (83.1 percent) (straight up); 27-27-1 (50 percent) (against the spread)

Contact FanHouse reporter Brett McMurphy at brettmcmurphy@gmail.com