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Parity Rules 2010 World Cup Draw

Dec 4, 2009 – 3:29 PM
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Michael Cardillo

Michael Cardillo %BloggerTitle%

Beckham TheronOnce we got past the glad-handing, the singing, the dancing, the prancing and Charlize Theron channeling her character from "Arrested Development" (most people like to refer to her as "Oscar-winner Charlize Theron" but I prefer to refer to her as "the former star from 'Arrested Development'"), the fates of the 32 teams that qualified for next summer's 2010 World Cup were revealed Friday in Cape Town, South Africa.

After Theron, a handful of famous African athletes -- and David Beckham -- pulled the balls from the four pots on the dais, the fears of some countries were allayed (England, United States, Spain, Italy), while a couple of nations (Côte d'Ivoire, Portugal) will spend the next six months wondering if FIFA has an agenda against them.

Overall, though, the eight groups seem about as fair as they could have possibly turned out.

Before the draw, two distinct factors were in play. First, just about everyone on the planet considered European sides France and Portugal as possible No. 1 seeds for Pot 1, however both finished second in their qualifying groups and ended up on the outside looking in. At the other end of the spectrum, two rank outsiders -- New Zealand and North Korea -- were clearly labeled as the pre-tournament cupcakes.

These two contrasting worlds ended up colliding to some degree and offsetting each other.

France landed in Group A with hosts South Africa, along with Mexico and Uruguay, which gives that group a legitimate No. 1 seed in Les Bleus.

Meanwhile, Portugal and North Korea were drawn in Group G with five-time World Champion Brazil. This, of course, comes at the expense of Côte d'Ivoire, which most consider the best team in Africa. If there is a dreaded "Group of Death" (for lack of a better, more modern term) it's Group G, which features three teams in the FIFA Top 20. (One thing to consider is that while it's always fun to dream of the prospect of upsets, even on African soil, the World Cup group stages usually play out to form, with one or two "lesser" teams sneaking into the knockouts.)

Let's take a quick look at the group today, knowing, of course, that a lot can change between now and June 11, 2010.

GROUP A
Teams:
South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

Analysis:
The biggest X-Factor in this group is how much the home crowd affects the Bafana Bafana (a.k.a. "South Africa"), and, to a lesser extent, what the star charts say when France coach Raymond Domenech fills out his lineup. The pressure will be on Mexico, which opens in the spotlight of the first match of the finals at Soccer City.

Key match: Mexico v. Uruguay, June 22, Rustenburg

GROUP B
Teams: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Analysis: Which Argentina team will show up in South Africa? And will Diego Maradona still be the man in charge? This group epitomizes the balance of the draw, with all four countries able to make their case for advancing.

Key match: South Korea v. Nigeria, June 22, Durban

GROUP C
Teams:
England, United States, Algeria, Slovenia.

Analysis: England must be on Cloud 9, so that puts the U.S. on at least Cloud 8. It'd be a surprise if both sides don't get through. At the minimum, this group offsets the U.S.'s brutal draw in 2006.

Key match: England vs. U.S, June 12, Rustenberg

GROUP D
Teams:
Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

Analysis: At first glance this is a stroll for the Germans, but again this is a very balanced foursome. Germany, Australia and Ghana all made the knockout stages in 2006, while Serbia topped its qualifying group over France. Germany should, as it always does, advance, but everything else is wide open. This might not be the Group of Death, but it's certainly the most competitive top to bottom.

Key match: Pretty much all of them. (Yes, that's a cop-out.)

GROUP E
Teams:
Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon

Analysis: Maybe this is the year the Dutch break through. The group is favorable for the Oranje, no questions asked. Second place figures to be a scrap between the Danes and Cameroon, since Japan has never won a World Cup match away from home soil.

Key match: Denmark v. Cameroon, June 22, Rustenburg

GROUP F
Teams: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia

Analysis: For anyone that thought the defending champion Azzurri were wobbly, well, at least wait until the knockouts because Marcello Lippi's squad got about as favorable a draw as possible. Maybe New Zealand pulls a stunner and takes a point, but second place is between Paraguay and Slovakia.

Key match: Slovakia v. Paraguay, June 20, Blomfontein

GROUP G
Teams:
Brazil, North Korea, Côte d'Ivoire, Portugal

Analysis: Well, North Korea, thanks for playing. Joking aside, a "big" team is going home early. It would be beyond belief if Brazil didn't get out of the groups, but it is possible with Côte d'Ivoire and Portugal lurking. Even the matches involving North Korea will be important, because the other three teams can't afford to drop points against them. Maybe the edge here for Côte d'Ivoire will be playing on African soil. As neutrals, we'll get three must-watch games from this group. And to add to the weight here, second-place probably gets Spain in the knockout rounds. Good luck.

Key match: Côte d'Ivoire v. Portugal, June 15, Port Elizabeth

GROUP H
Teams:
Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile

Analysis: It's not like Spain needed a favorable draw, but this should be a stroll for the reigning European champs. Honduras and Chile are scrappy, while Switzerland is solid defensive unit, but all three are playing for second place and a probable date with Brazil in the knockouts.

Key match: Chile v. Switzerland, June 21, Johannesburg
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