Fantasy Football Reality Check: Knowshon is the Broncos' Real Horse

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Sunday in the Broncos' complete undressing of the Kansas City Chiefs, their leading rusher was Correll Buckhalter. He gained 113 yards on just 12 carries. But that doesn't mean anything moving forward in fantasy football. Why not? Because Knowshon Moreno is their guy. Who gets the important yards (touchdowns and much-needed first downs)? Moreno. Who gets the bulk of the work? Moreno. Who, as a rookie with star potential, is working his way into very consistent territory? You know the answer.

In the past four games, Knowshon has gained at least 80 yards on the ground each time. He's now scored three touchdowns in the past two weeks. He's also carried the ball 68 times to Buckhalter's 41 in that same span. The Broncos clearly trust him and so should you.

Should you be alarmed by Buckhalter's impressive outing where he averaged more than nine yards per carry? No. They were playing the Swiss Chiefs. Peyton Hillis even came on late to run for 47 yards on just seven jaunts.

Buckhalter does have two tough matchups in the playoffs (at Philly in Week 16 and we'll cover Indy down below), but a lovely one against the Raiders in Week 15. Still, you'd probably be hard-pressed to find two running backs and a flex play more safe at this point in the season if you play in a 12 or more team fantasy league.

Other Reality Checks

• Jason Campbell may have been playing against a banged-up secondary, but he had more success against it than Tom Brady and the Patriots did. Campbell is starting to look better of late, as he did toss two touchdowns against the Eagles and run for another last week. He followed it Sunday with three touchdown passes and a career-high 367 passing yards. He's also seeing growth in second year players Devin Thomas and Fred Davis. If Campbell's available and you need a backup quarterback to protect against disaster in the playoffs, grab him now. Real life losses don't hurt you in fantasy.

• I'm not buying Brandon Jacobs' big game as anything more than a fluke. Here's why: he gained just 39 yards on 13 carries. The 74-yard touchdown reception ain't happening again, not in his wildest dreams. If you want to count on a goal line touchdown each week, it's your funeral, as he only has four rushing touchdowns all season. The bottom line is that the second-round bust is still a bust and that's not changing anytime soon. The Giants just can't run up the middle. In fact, I'd rather have Ahmad Bradshaw (the perimeter runner) moving forward.

• We have now seen a game without Jamal Lewis and should have some kind of idea as to how the Browns will work their backfield. First of all, they were forced into a catch-up pass offense due to a deficit, but that's not likely to drastically change in the next three weeks. Secondly, Jerome Harrison had twice as many carries (10 to five) as Chris Jennings and was much more active in the passing game -- catching seven passes, including two touchdowns. It might be obvious to grab the guy who just scored twice, but just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true. Harrison is the add here.

• Frank Gore's value is tumbling down and down because the 49ers are insisting on being a passing team. Just as Alex Smith is burgeoning into a fantasy star (and taking Vernon Davis with him), Gore is left as a member of the supporting cast. In the last three games, he has just 32 carries. In the past two, he's averaging just 2.3 yards per carry, too. It's hard to trust him in the playoffs (if you made it there with him, which would have been a tall order), especially since the Niners are having so much more success throwing the ball. The Cardinals and Eagles in the next two weeks don't present easy matchups, either.

• With Cedric Benson back, the Bengals gave us a good idea what they think about splitting reps in the backfield. Benson got 36 carries to Larry Johnson's two. And this was against the Lions. Simply put: you own LJ as insurance for Benson. This isn't the Panthers, Cardinals or any other two-back team. The Bengals use one, as long as he stays healthy.

• It's Week 13 and I'm telling you to abandon ship on every single Bear -- Robbie Gould and the defense included. The Bears only mustered 248 total yards against the hapless Rams. At home. They averaged 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and Jay Cutler completed just eight passes for 143 yards. In the next three weeks, they play the Packers, Ravens and Vikings. The good news, however, is that if you drafted Bear-heavy, you aren't in the playoffs anyway.

• After two games, it appeared the 2009 Colts' defense was the same old Colts, in that they couldn't stop the run. Since then, though, they've allowed just two runners to go for over 100 yards, and those two are absolute beasts (Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson) and neither went nuts. During that time, the Colts have worked their way into the top-half of the NFL in run defense and have only allowed three runs all season of 20 yards or more (tied for the best in the league). Thus, Knowshon Moreno (Week 14), Maurice Jones-Drew (Week 15) and Thomas Jones (Week 16) may not be as automatic as you might think when they face the Colts.

• Speaking of Maurice Jones-Drew, for whatever reason, he's starting to fall off. He gained just 76 yards on 24 attempts Sunday. Last week against San Fran, he had just 75 yards on the ground and the previous week (against the NFL's worst run defense) he had 66 yards on 25 carries. His playoff matchups (Dolphins, Colts and Patriots) aren't exactly run-friendly either. Needless to say, if you are heading into your fantasy postseason with MJD as your star, I'm not going to be predicting you win it all.

• What do I read out of Adrian Peterson's awful Sunday night output? Not much. The Vikings entire team appeared flat. When you head into the playoffs, don't you dare get cute and find a reason to sit your No. 1 stud.

• On the flip-side, how about the Arizona Cardinals. Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin did a number on a very good defense. Their playoff opponents? Niners, Lions and Rams. Enjoy!

• Finally, our weekly Chris Johnson watch. He now has 1,513 rushing yards, so he's on pace for 2,017. The Colts actually held him to an output below his average (even though it was 117 yards), but he'll easily make up for it next week against the awful Rams' defense. Even Matt Forte had a good game against them.