AOL News has a new home! The Huffington Post.

Click here to visit the new home of AOL News!

Hot on HuffPost:

See More Stories

NFL Picks, Week 14: Stop Betting Against the Colts

Dec 10, 2009 – 7:00 AM
Text Size
Dave Goldberg

Dave Goldberg %BloggerTitle%

Week 14 picksI've been picking against the Colts for a while and my record is quickly sliding back toward .500. That's one reason it should be time to quit.

On the other hand, Indianapolis usually loses one about now, in part because the Colts don't care much about finishing the regular season unbeaten -- their former coach says so, their current coach says so (sort of) and their president says so.

So who am I to argue against Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian? Or even Dwight Freeney, who doesn't quite follow the party line. "It would be fun to finish unbeaten,'' he said this week. "But that's not the ultimate goal.''

Will they lose this week, favored by seven at home against Denver?That many points seem like a lot given that in half of their 12 wins, the Colts have trailed in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, they usually win big against the Broncos, especially in Indy -- like 41-10, 49-24 and 38-20 the last three times, the first two in playoff games.

But those were Mike Shanahan teams.

These are Josh McDaniels teams. Or specifically, Mike Nolan defenses.

Yes, the Colts stay unbeaten. But in another close game.

Broncos at Colts

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Denver Broncos

21
Indianapolis Colts - 7 27

If Wade Phillips would quit denying that the Cowboys crash late in the season and acknowledge that they have tanked in December and January recently, he'd be better off. Just say "it's in the past, this is now.'' But Wade won't, so the Cowboys won't stop crashing.

Chargers at Cowboys

Team Pointspread Projected Score
San Diego Chargers
27
Dallas Cowboys - 3
20

If both teams were healthy, both would be very good. Neither is healthy so they are less than that, particularly the Giants. Even the guys who play are hurt, notably Eli Manning, who has a bad right foot that might even be a stress fracture -- his biggest play in last week's win over Dallas was a 74-yard TD pass to Brandon Jacobs in which Jacobs ran for about 68 of the yards.

Eagles at Giants (Sun. night)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles

31
New York Giants - 1 27
The Vikings were embarrassed in Minnesota? Trend or bounceback?

Bounceback.

Bengals at Vikings

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals

17
Minnesota Vikings - 6 1/2
21
Matt Ryan's toe is the reason this is off the board.

Probably doesn't matter.

Saints at Falcons

Team Pointspread Projected Score
New Orleans Saints
No Line 34
Atlanta Falcons
17

Cardinals at 49ers (Monday)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals
- 3 1/2
24
San Francisco 49ers
20

Steelers at Browns (Thurs.)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers
- 10
24
Cleveland Browns
16

Dolphins at Jaguars

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Miami Dolphins

19
Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 17

Packers at Bears

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Green Bay Packers
- 3 25
Chicago Bears
20

Panthers at Patriots

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Carolina Panthers

0
New England Patriots - 14 59

Seahawks at Texans

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks

17
Houston Texans
- 6 27

Lions at Ravens

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Detroit Lions 20
Baltimore Ravens
- 14 31

Bills at Chiefs

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Buffalo Bills
- 1 16
Kansas City Chiefs
17

Rams at Titans

Team Pointspread Projected Score
St. Louis Rams
16
Tennessee Titans
- 13
24

Redskins at Raiders

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Washington Redskins
- 1
18
Oakland Raiders
15

Jets at Bucs

Team Pointspread Projected Score
New York Jets
- 3
24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10
Last Week: 5-11 (spread); 8-8 (straight up)

Season: 101-90-2 (spread); 123-70 (straight up)
Filed under: Sports

ON FACEBOOK