Can E-Readers Stop the Demise of Book Reading?

(Dec. 11) -- For decades, the number of Americans who read books has been in decline. But with the emergence of hand-held devices such as Amazon's Kindle, Barnes & Noble's Nook and the Sony Reader, that sad story may be heading for a happier, more literate ending.

According to recent findings released by the National Endowment for the Arts, nearly 46 percent of all Americans over the age of 18 do not read a single book in a year that isn't required by work or school. That dismal figure is up 11 percent from 1992, when the NEA and the U.S. Census Bureau started measuring book reading.

Despite blockbuster successes such as Stephenie Meyer's "Twilight" series, the numbers from the commercial publishing world aren't so encouraging, either, with total trade book sales projected to drop 0.5 percent in 2009, according to a report from Publishers Weekly and the Institute for Publishing Research.

One big bright spot, however, is electronic books. Though they still account for only a small portion of the total number of books sold, e-book sales are forecast to rise 4 percent this year.

"The transition from paper to e-books is accelerating at a very rapid pace," said Tom Allen, the CEO of the Association of American Publishers. "It's exciting. I think the electronic delivery of books is more likely to expand the number of readers, in part because of the convenience. You can hear about a book, click and have it in 60 seconds no matter where you are."

Among the businessmen betting on that model is Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. In a recent interview with The New York Times, Bezos said Amazon now sells 48 of the electronic variety for every 100 it moves in paper form for book titles in which there is both a paper and a Kindle version.

Bezos said the day when electronic books will outsell their paper kind "won't be too long" in coming. Given that as recently as May, Amazon's ratio of e-book to paper book sales was 35 to 100, it's hard to argue.

"The future will be digital," said Al Greco, vice president and senior researcher at the Institute for Publishing Research. "And the future of reading looks positive overall. I'm optimistic."

Greco cites the shift occurring in the college textbook market as a sign of things to come. "By 2015, 90 to 100 percent of all college textbooks will be digital. Those students will be even more comfortable reading on screens than they are now, and it's going to trigger a shift in the overall market."

But does a change in the delivery mode -- from paper form to downloadable e-book -- mean that more people will discover the pleasures of a good book?

Sunil Iyengar, director of research and analysis at NEA, notes a rise in the amount of literature -- including novels, poetry and short stories -- being read by 18- to 24-year-olds that seems to mirror that group's use of technology to access it. "Young adults are much more likely to read literature online than older age groups."

A new study from the University of California, San Diego, shows that while Americans are consuming more information than ever before, the vast majority of it comes from television and the computer. Another problem for paper books, in particular, is that with the rise of the Internet, gaming systems, smart phones and the like, people are simply keeping their eyes glued elsewhere.

Greco argues that in order for e-readers to really take off as the commercial platform for reading, they'll need to incorporate other features. "If Apple does come out with the Tablet, and it has video, sound, color, Internet, in addition to being a book reader, then you have a game changer."

But with all those bells and whistles, will people find the time to actually read the books they are downloading?

"You could make an argument that short attention spans are encouraged by our society's technology," Allen said, "but I think what's really important is that we continue to produce readers. And I think we will."