Fantasy Football Reality Check: Playoffs No Time to Sit Your Studs

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

In most other times of the season, I'm OK with getting cute and trying to gamble with spot plays. In the playoffs, though, it's win or go home. You don't mess around and focus on things like the fact that Adrian Peterson had just 19 yards on 13 carries in Week 13. You play the guy you drafted first overall -- or traded a killing for. There are no two ways about it. I couldn't believe how many people were asking questions in Sunday morning's tailgate on whether or not to start Peterson. You don't sit your studs unless they are hurt. Period. All Day has been too good throughout his career to believe that line against Arizona was anything more than a fluky outlier.

If you did sit Peterson, you missed out on 137 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns (25.7 points in most leagues). Also, if you sat Peterson, hopefully you still found a way to win and have learned your lesson.

Don't expect things to change in the next two weeks. In Week 15, Peterson will shred a Panthers run defense that just allowed Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk to gain 187 yards on 38 carries. They rank in the bottom fourth of NFL teams against the run. In Week 16, Peterson will feast on the Bears defense that allowed Ryan Grant's longest run since 2007. Oh, by the way, Peterson owns the Bears. He's run for 639 yards and nine touchdowns in just five games against the Bears. He's done more against the Bears in five games than he's done to the Lions in six.

Other Reality Checks

• The Jaguars' offense is not doing anyone any favors in fantasy football. Mike Sims-Walker has disappeared, David Garrard is far too inconsistent to rely upon in the playoffs and even Maurice Jones-Drew has taken a significant hit in value. Through 10 weeks, he appeared destined to join up with Peterson and Chris Johnson as a consensus "Big Three" for next season's drafts, but since then he's been lagging. In his past four games, he's only averaging 12 points per game, which is lower-tier RB2 range. The biggest culprit is the lack of running lanes, as MJD is averaging just 3.37 yards per carry during this time span. He was around five yards a carry until this swoon. To make matters worse, Jaguars fullback Greg Jones has fallen injured. Don't expect things to get much better for MJD against the Colts in Week 15. If he's your horse, you have to start him, but it likely means you won't be making an appearance in the league championship in Week 16.

• The Dolphins are continuing to become more balanced, due to the absence of a second productive back. Of their 71 offensive plays, 40 were runs and 31 were passes. It's a pretty run-heavy split, but there were times earlier in the season when they would run twice as much as pass. As I already alluded to, this is a necessity because Ricky Williams can't handle 40 carries a week. Lex Hilliard and Lousaka Polite aren't exactly Ronnie Brown, so the Fins have to take it to the air. Chad Henne didn't have near as productive a game this week as he did last, but the 220 yards were still a progression and were enough to make Greg Camarillo put up a nice stat line. The Dolphins play the Titans next week and it's been pretty tough to run on Tennessee of late. Look for a similar split in rushing and passing plays, meaning Camarillo and Davone Bess are worth a look as a WR3 in deeper leagues.

• The game Willis McGahee had has nothing to do with Ray Rice's value as an elite RB1. McGahee simply picked up where Rice left off in a laugher. Rice still had more yards from scrimmage than any other player Sunday, and that was with just 17 touches in just over a half. You can expect McGahee's workload to go back to about five carries next week and Rice to run wild all over the Bears.

• It's time to worry about Reggie Wayne. I said at the start to not sit your studs in the playoffs. Well, I can't consider him an elite stud at this point. In the past three games, he's caught 11 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. That's just 5.67 points per week. The Colts are pretty much clinched into home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, too, so you worry about Curtis Painter taking over for Peyton Manning -- which would further butcher the remaining value Wayne has. And this is assuming Wayne is even on the field with Painter. It's time to look for other options. You can check out Austin Collie or Pierre Garcon in-house, but they'd have the same fear of Painter as the QB. I'd prefer to look elsewhere.

• In assessing the Texans' running back situation, I've come to a conclusion: none of them are worth the headache. The only real thing we can count on in the Texans' offense is Matt Schaub peppering Andre Johnson and both being must-starts every week in fantasy. That's it. You can have Arian Foster, Chris Brown or Ryan Moats. I'm leaving them -- and Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones and everyone else -- on the waiver wire from here on out.

• I wouldn't worry about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack just yet. The Bears were pretty determined to take the big play away and make Ryan Grant beat them (which he did). Notice that of Rodgers' 16 completed passes, only five went to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. None went to James Jones or Jordy Nelson. The Steelers' secondary has had their problems this season and they are much tougher to run on than the Bears, so I'd expect a reversal next week. Rodgers will be a stud and Grant won't be near as useful. It's worth noting that Rodgers did find Jermichael Finley five times for 70 yards. He's a nice tight end down the stretch (and if you own Greg Olsen, there's your drop).

• The Giants face two teams who are much better against the pass than the run in the next two weeks -- Washington and Carolina. Sunday night, we finally saw another healthy yards-per-carry day from the Ahmad Bradshaw-Brandon Jacobs tandem, so it's safe to use them again. Both are more of a flex option, not an RB2, due to the near-equal split. As for Eli Manning, this was the last huge fantasy game of the season for him. Hopefully you were able to enjoy it.

• Considering the manner in which the Eagles presently use both Michael Vick and Leonard Weaver, they have rendered LeSean McCoy pretty meaningless for fantasy purposes. Of 375 yards of total offense, McCoy had just 54. They scored two rushing touchdowns and those went to Weaver and Vick. They threw two touchdown passes, which went to DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek. On a 2-point conversion, they went to Jason Avant. If anything, it looks like McCoy is their version of Reggie Bush -- without the touchdowns. That's bad news to McCoy owners -- who were possibly Brian Westbrook owners looking for a replacement RB2. It's time to look elsewhere to fill that slot.

• Finally, our weekly Chris Johnson watch. After another off-day on the ground -- where he carried the ball 28 times for 117 yards -- he's on pace for 2,001 yards. His yards per carry has dipped to below six (5.97) for the first time in a long time. Of course, he was still the top performer in fantasy due to his two rushing touchdowns, 69 receiving yards and receiving touchdown. He now has 2,017 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns. What a monster.