Does John Lackey Lose Fantasy Baseball Value in Boston?

When the Boston Red Sox signed John Lackey on Monday, they received a top-end starting pitcher with a long list of accomplishments in Major League Baseball. He's posted ten or more wins in each of his last seven seasons, a streak that dates back to when the team was still labeled as Anaheim. Lackey has also spent the last five seasons with an ERA under four and three times in the last five seasons struck out more than 175 batters.

The Red Sox are definitely getting an upgrade to their rotation, a battle tested arm that can compliment Josh Beckett and Jon Lester while pushing the team to higher levels among their American League rivals.

While this acquisition greatly improves the Red Sox, it does very little to alter Lackey's fantasy baseball value. In fact, it may even hurt his fantasy numbers.

Accolades aside, Lackey's most recent two seasons have been thrown off by injury. In 2008 Lackey only made 24 starts after missing the teams' first 41 games with triceps tendinitis. In 2009 he missed the Angels' first 34 games with elbow inflammation in his pitching elbow and only made 27 starts. These were Lackey's first two seasons where he did not amass 200 or more innings since 2004. If it had only happened once, I could chalk it up to an anomaly. But since Lackey was hurt in back-to-back seasons, I'm fearful a trend may be appearing.

Whether or not you feel Lackey will spend the next five season in Boston riddled with injuries is beside the point. There is statistical data to prove that Lackey has already peaked as a pitcher and is in the tailspin portion of his career.

Over the last five seasons, Lackey's strikeout rate has fallen each year. He was striking out 8.57 batters per nine innings in 2005, but has trended lower each season to where he finally fell to rest last season at 7.09 strikeouts per nine innings.

A similar negative trend can be seen in his walk rate. Since 2007, Lackey has been walking more batters per nine innings. It's not a terrible uptick, but his 2.09 walk rate per nine innings in 2007 is superior to the 2.40 walk rate he posted last season.

Finally, batters are compiling a higher batting average against Lackey these days. In fact, since 2006 batters have raised their collective batting averages from .249 to .263 in 2009.

You have to examine these trending statistics for yourself and ask whether or not you think a pitcher who is striking out fewer batters, walking more and allowing more base hits to hitters can turn things around in Boston. And it's not like he's moving to a division where it's easier to pitch.

In the American League West in 2009, Lackey enjoyed pitching to a division with a combined .260 batting average where the other three teams -- Seattle, Oakland and Texas -- averaged 173 home runs per team. In moving to the American League East, Lackey has to face the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays and Orioles that averaged a .270 batting average and 203 home runs per team. By those figures Lackey is moving to a much tougher atmosphere to pitch.

Finally, if you think pitching in Boston will equate to a few extra wins for Lackey -- think again. It's not like he's moving from a bottom-dweller that struggles to win 70 games each year. The Angels won 97 games last season, two more than the Red Sox.