Fantasy Football Roundtable: Should You Bench Your Colts?

When the Indianapolis Colts defeated the Denver Broncos on Sunday, they had just about locked up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. When the Bengals lost their game against the Vikings, the Colts knew they'd be playing the entirety of the AFC playoffs at home.

This now begs the question, "Will your Colts players receive enough playing time to produce useful fantasy lines?"

With an undefeated season on the line, it seems like a silly question to ask, yet football isn't about avoiding a regular-season loss; it's about winning the Super Bowl. How terrible would the Indy coaching staff look if Peyton Manning or any other key player was injured in a game the Colts didn't even have to win?

Indianapolis faces Jacksonville this Thursday, so you'll have to make a decision about your Colts players rather quickly. A subject this important to your fantasy playoffs deserved more than one opinion, so the FanHouse staff discussed the issue at length.

R.J. White: I would be very hesitant to play my Colts starters if I had capable backups in place. Peyton and Co. could very well take a seat for most of the second half, if not longer. Disregard coach Caldwell's assertion of regular playing time -- the minute a Colts starter is slow to get up from a big hit, he'll be rethinking the merits of putting his stars at risk. I would only bank on a half's worth of stats for Manning, Addai, Wayne, Clark and Garcon in Week 15.

I actually think it's more likely the Colts stars will play extensively in Week 16 than in Week 15, due to the Thursday game this week, but I also wouldn't risk my fantasy championship on the uncertainty of their playing time. Give them a series or two in Week 17, and they should be ready to go in the playoffs. I have Peyton, Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer in a two-QB league, and at this point I may bench Manning.

Will Brinson: Yeah, with that sort of QB set, I think you almost have to bench Peyton. But if I'm rocking a lesser backup, then I'll probably stick with Peyton. I don't necessarily think the Colts are just gonna pull everyone as soon as the first quarter ends. It's detrimental to a team's momentum to have the starters sitting for almost a month. More importantly might be the fact that they've got the Jags, Jets and Bills on the schedule. I'm pretty confident that a single half of Peyton in those games can lock them up an undefeated season, with maybe the Jets aside.

All that being said, if I've got to gamble with a backup who is either bottom-tier or has a horrible matchup, then I'm sticking with Peyton and Co. -- an elite half of football is better than a full game of mediocrity.

Matt Snyder: Well, I'd play Schaub over Manning, too, but I think it would be insanity to play Carson Palmer over Manning given the way Palmer has been playing. We know the Colts can put up insane stat lines in one half and I can't see Manning playing less than a half. He could easily pile up 200 yards and three touchdowns in the first half.

I would also factor in the fact that we have never seen Jim Caldwell in this situation, and he hasn't yet this season been misleading in who will be playing. I'm not sure why he'd lie now. We also know he's much more aggressive in many facets than Tony Dungy and that Manning surely wants to play at least one half.

The only real indication we're getting about guys possibly not playing are those who are banged up (Dwight Freeney, for one). Joseph Addai was banged up earlier this year and seems to have a bunch of minor injuries he's playing through. But Manning and Reggie Wayne are perfectly fine. I'm sticking with Peyton this week and would play Addai as a flex.

Call me naive, but I believe the talk. More importantly, I side with Will that the Colts will come out ready to bury the opponent early enough to stay sharp AND get some rest.

Ryan Dembinsky: Speaking as someone facing Peyton this week in a playoff matchup, I can say that I would like nothing more than to see him get benched early, but there is simply no reason not to start him from a fantasy perspective. There are two obvious factors at play that should lead owners to disregard any concerns about this possibility having a significant negative fantasy impact.

The first is obvious: either the Colts break out to a comfortable lead during which Manning should contribute at least a pair of touchdowns, or he stays in. As Sean highlighted, the Colts pretty much own the Jags and he should have his way.

The second is that no matter what Caldwell says, nobody sacrifices an undefeated season in the NFL. For the fans and the team, you just don't do it. They may act like it's all about the playoffs, but how can anyone let an undefeated NFL season possibly slip away after 24 weeks of perfection?

Sean Lalley: I touched on this a little in The Colt Predicament last week and the assumption I had and still do have is that Week 16 is the danger week. Honestly, I think it's ridiculous to think that Caldwell is gonna yank the starters after the first quarter or first half in Jacksonville. Who is Jim Caldwell by the way? I thought Peyton Manning was the coach of the Indianapolis Colts. Am I wrong?

I just don't see that happening in Jacksonville, unless they get up big early in the 3rd quarter. However, if they are up big at that point, who cares? Manning will most likely have already delivered you a another virtuoso performance on a late-season Thursday nighter in Jacksonville (anyone recall his near-perfect game in Week 16 on Thursday at J-Ville last year?). You've also gotta toss in the fact that no matter what he says, Manning is still chapped about 2005 when they rested and basically let the steam out of their own momentum.

White: You guys are probably right in regard to Palmer at this point in the season. The rest of my team is strong enough to withstand a potential half without Manning, so I think I'll have him in the lineup over Palmer.

Knox Bardeen: This is the evil of playing fantasy football: NFL coaches hamstring us by using running back by committee approaches and then flip-flopping the premier ball-carrier. We sometimes aren't sure if a team is going to be run-heavy or favor the pass, and in situations like the playoff race, we just don't know how much playing time our fantasy rock stars will receive.

I think this decision gets easier if you look at how well these three teams play against the run and pass. The Jets and Buffalo have top-five pass defenses -- Manning and company might not have flourished anyway. I'd love to see Addai carry the ball 20 times against Buffalo's 32^nd-ranked run defense, but in Week 17, will he get a chance?

I'd likely sit Manning, Clark, Wayne and Garcon for the duration -- it's sad, but true. I'd monitor Addai going forward though. It's likely he's going to be shut down by Week 17, but if he's going to play at all -- and I mean 10 carries could be big stuff, fantasy speaking -- I'd consider playing him as a flex.

Snyder: What about Jacksonville having a terrible pass defense and the Colts saying they are playing everyone this week? Just disregard that? I think that's crazy to just blanket sit the entire pass offense.

Plus, assuming everyone plays, you don't have to worry about strong pass defenses against the Colts. Peyton racked up three touchdown passes in 22 minutes against the league's second-ranked pass (Denver) defense Sunday.

Lalley: Oh yeah, and how in the hell is Manning gonna lock up the MVP award (which is rightfully his) if he sits half the game on Thursday night? If I were still alive in fantasy playoffs and saw Manning on my opponent's team, I'd pray. If I owned Manning and was still alive, I'd start him with a cocky grin and enjoy what's sure to be an epic showing on Thursday night. Book it: Manning plays, crushes the Jags, wraps up the MVP and then pumps the brakes by halftime of next week.

White: Considering how bad the pass defense of Jacksonville is and coach Caldwell's statements, are there any QBs you'd start over Manning this week? Does he deserve the No. 1 spot on our rankings?

Lalley: I think it would be insane for owners to sit Manning, Wayne, etc., this week! Yes, Manning is No. 1.

Snyder: Schaub against the Rams and Kurt Warner against the Lions are easily above him. I also do think the Colts take the pedal off the metal late, as I said earlier, so that would lead to me put Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb (against SF) over Manning as well. Tom Brady is a toss-up, but I'd probably lean toward Peyton considering the Bills' defense is similar to Carolina and the Pats will probably use the same game plan. Philip Rivers is also a toss-up, but the Bengals have some solid defensive backs, so I'll lean Peyton again.

Brinson: The Jets are elite in terms of pass defense, but the Colts are elite too. In debating the importance of the strength of schedule, I think you at least have to say "Would I sit them in the regular season?" And since the answer to Peyton is always "No", it's only worth a limited amount of value to discuss how tough the Jets' D is (and remember, Tom Brady lit them up for 310 yards recently). As for Buffalo, when you're bottom-5 in rush D, that sort of "good" pass D ranking tends to follow along.

White: So should the Colts throw caution to the wind and play at full strength throughout the rest of the season?

Dembinsky: Frankly, an undefeated season cements a team's legacy as much if not more than a Super Bowl. For the fan's sake most of all, I just cannot see Peyton coming out of a game that's reasonably close at this point. He's too competitive and Colts fans don't deserve such utter nonsense. Finish the job.

Snyder: I think there's a misconception that the Colts have been in this situation before and sat people. Except they haven't. The longest they ever went undefeated is 13-0. Obviously that's where they sit this year, but they also did it in 2005. They lost to the Chargers in Week 15, but here's the box score. Look like they sat anyone? And that was with a more conservative coach.

White: So to sum it all up, we're very conflicted as a group on whether you should start your Colts this week (as you would probably expect), but the general majority is that Manning is a must-start, Wayne and Clark should be started, and Addai should most likely be played as well. Good luck to you Manning owners (myself included) this week!