Predicting the Playoffs: A Nearly Drama Free NFC

With three weeks left in the season, we're not too far away from settling most of the NFC playoff picture. By Monday night, three of the four division races and one of the wild-card spots in the NFC could be decided, leaving the NFC East race as the only compelling conference storyline of the final two weeks of the season.

In the AFC, the situation is a little more muddled. Indianapolis has locked up the No. 1 seed and San Diego could wrap up the No. 2 seed this weekend with a couple of breaks. But the AFC East is still relatively wide open, and the wild-card race likely won't be settled until the final week of the season.

Here's how the playoff contenders look heading into Week 15.

It's Official

Indianapolis (13-0)

(Remaining schedule -- Jacksonville, New York Jets, Buffalo): The Colts wrapped up the top seed in the AFC with a relatively easy win over the Broncos. The Colts have said that they will play their starters, at least this week, but the only thing left for Indianapolis to play for during the regular season is a 16-0 record and momentum heading into the playoffs.

New Orleans (13-0)

(Dallas, Tampa Bay, Carolina): The Saints also are playing for perfection, although at least in their case they haven't locked up the No. 1 seed yet. One more win or a Vikings loss will do that.

Minnesota (11-2)

(Carolina, Chicago, New York Giants): The loss to the Cardinals will likely keep the Vikings from mounting a serious challenge for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the Vikings need only one more win or one more Packers loss to wrap up the NFC North and they also can clinch a first-round bye with any combination of Vikings wins and Eagles losses that adds up to two.

All But Official

Arizona (8-5)

(Detroit, St. Louis, Green Bay): The Monday night loss to the 49ers means Arizona will have to wait another week to wrap up the NFC West, but with the Lions and Rams on the schedule over the next two weeks, it's hard to imagine Arizona won't still win it. They need just one win to clinch the division, although the No. 3 seed seems to be the best the Cardinals can aspire to be. That shouldn't worry them too much. They made it to the Super Bowl last year as the No. 4 seed.

San Diego (10-3)

(Cincinnati, Tennessee, Washington): San Diego will face Cincinnati this weekend with a first-round playoff bye on the line. Technically the Chargers haven't even wrapped up the division yet, but they can do that this weekend with a win or a Broncos loss. The winner of this weekend's Bengals-Chargers game can't officially wrap up the AFC's No. 2 seed, but thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker they will have a nearly insurmountable lead for the spot.

Cincinnati (9-4)

(San Diego, Kansas City, New York Jets): The loss to the Vikings delayed the Bengals playoff celebration but they still need just one win or one Ravens loss to wrap up the AFC North. If Cincinnati can win out, they will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC. But if they lose to the Chargers this week, they have to start worrying about losing the No. 3 seed to the winner of the AFC East.

Good Shape

Philadelphia (9-4)

(San Francisco, Denver, Dallas): The Eagles' are one win away from wrapping up a playoff spot thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Giants. Wrapping up the NFC East will take a little longer because the Cowboys would take the tiebreaker against the Eagles if they win their Week 17 game.

Green Bay (9-4)

(Pittsburgh, Seattle, Arizona): They are unlikely to catch to Vikings, but the Packers could have a wild-card spot wrapped up this weekend. Green Bay holds a head-to-head advantage against the Cowboys, so a Packers win and a Cowboys loss or a Giants loss clinches a playoff spot.

Controlling Their Destiny

Dallas (8-5)

(New Orleans, Washington, Philadelphia): There's not been a lot of good news for Cowboys fans this December, but here's something for the optimistic Cowboys fan--if Dallas wins out, they will win the NFC East. Of course doing that involves beating the Saints and Eagles in games where Dallas will be an underdog. If Dallas loses this week, the real trouble begins. The Giants hold the head-to-head advantage over the Cowboys, so they would knock out Dallas in any tie that doesn't include the Eagles. Dallas also loses a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Packers. In other words, Dallas won't get any breaks if they can't turn around their December slide.

New England (8-5)

(Buffalo, Jacksonville, Houston): The Patriots' schedule is their best friend right now. New England didn't exactly wow anyone in their win over the Panthers last week, but it did get them a step closer to a playoff spot. Buffalo and Houston (which will likely be eliminated by the final week of the season) should help ensure New England gets back to the playoffs. But if New England does lose to the Jaguars,

Denver (8-5)

(Oakland, Philadelphia, Kansas City): You can't say that the Broncos have wrapped anything up yet, but there are a number of AFC playoff contenders who would gladly trade places. With Oakland and Kansas City still on the schedule, Denver should get to 10 wins, which will likely be enough in the AFC this year to earn a playoff spot. If the Broncos beat the Raiders and Chiefs they would win a tiebreaker with the Patriots (head-to-head win) and the Jets (conference record), although they would lose a tiebreaker with a 10-win Jaguars team because of conference record and to the Ravens because of head-to-head record.

Jacksonville (7-6)

(Indianapolis, New England, Cleveland): The Jaguars would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they may look back at Sunday's loss against the Dolphins as the game that cost them a playoff spot. With the Colts (admittedly with nothing to play for) and a highly motivated Patriots team to play, the Jaguars could very quickly go from leading the race for the sixth wild card spot to missing the playoffs. In a two-way tie, Jacksonville would lose the tie to the Dolphins (head-to-head). But at least right now they have the tiebreaker advantage over any other wild card team because of their superior 6-3 conference record.

Still Have A Decent Chance

New York Giants (7-6)

(Washington, Carolina, Minnesota): For a 7-6 team, the Giants are in about as good a shape as they could be. The schedule is favorable, especially since they get the Vikings on the final week of the season when Minnesota will likely have nothing to play for. If New York wins the next three games, it's hard to map out a scenario where they don't make the playoffs. They hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Cowboys, so with a win over the Redskins and a Cowboys loss to the Saints this weekend New York would control their own destiny.

Baltimore (7-6)

(Chicago, Pittsburgh, Oakland): The Ravens schedule (easiest among AFC playoff contenders) is why Baltimore fans still have reasons for optimism. Baltimore's schedule gives them a decent shot at being 10-6, and that will likely be enough to get in, although it's too early to start trying to figure out all to common opponent tiebreakers that would come into play.

Miami (7-6)

(Tennessee, Houston, Pittsburgh): The Dolphins helped their chances at a wild card spot by beating the Jaguars last week, which will give them a tiebreaker advantage in a two-way tie with the Jaguars. If the Patriots unexpectedly lose to the Bills, Miami would also hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Patriots for the division title.

In Trouble

Pittsburgh (6-7)

(Packers, Ravens, Dolphins): Not only is Pittsburgh in the middle of a five-game losing streak, but they lose any tiebreaker to the Ravens. So a loss to the Packers combined with a Ravens win against the Bears would officially eliminate Pittsburgh.

Tennessee (6-7)

(Miami, San Diego, Seattle): Vince Young's gimpy leg is expected to be healthy enough for him to play this weekend. That's the good news. A 3-7 conference record and a difficult schedule to end the season is the bad news. Oh and the Titans also lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Steelers, Jets and Patriots. At this point, it would take a miracle for Tennessee to make the playoffs.

New York Jets (7-6)

(Atlanta, Indianapolis, Cincinnati): For a 7-6 team, the Jets are in a tough spot. Jets fans need to root for the Dolphins to collapse, because New York loses the tiebreaker to the Dolphins. The Jets also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Jaguars. The Jets 5-5 conference record won't do them any favors either. To get to the playoffs what New York needs is to avoid having to worry about any tiebreakers.

Houston (6-7)

(St. Louis, Miami, New England): Of all the 6-7 AFC teams, the Texans are in the best shape, but that still means they are a serious long shot. Houston loses the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Jaguars, Jets and Dolphins, making their odds even longer.

Atlanta (6-7)

(Jets, Bills, Bucs): The schedule may be kind, but being two games out of the No. 6 spot with three games means things are still pretty bleak for Atlanta. The Falcons also lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Cowboys, so one Dallas win will finish off the Falcons playoff chances.

San Francisco (6-7)

(Philadelphia, Detroit, St. Louis): If the 49ers can pull off an upset this weekend, a 9-7 finish seems very possible. But even a 9-7 finish would not necessarily get San Francisco into the playoffs. Obviously, a loss this weekend would effectively finish off the 49ers playoff chances.

Stuff Worth Knowing.

If you need a refresher on the tiebreaker rules, here's the NFL's official explanation. And if you're wondering who wins head-to-head tiebreakers, here's a handy cheat sheet.

AFC

IND

SD

CIN

NE

DEN

JAX

BAL

MIA

NYJ

PIT

HOU

TEN

IND

X

DNP

DNP

IND

IND

*IND

IND

IND

TC

DNP

IND

*IND

SD

DNP

X

TC

DNP

SPLIT

DNP

BAL

SD

DNP

PIT

DNP

TC

CIN

DNP

TC

X

DNP

DEN

DNP

CIN

DNP

TC

CIN

HOU

DNP

NE

IND

DNP

DNP

X

DEN

TC

NE

SPLIT

SPLIT

DNP

TC

NE

DEN

IND

SPLIT

DEN

DEN

X

DNP

DNP

DNP

DNP

PIT

DNP

DNP

JAX

*IND

DNP

DNP

TC

DNP

X

DNP

MIA

JAX

DNP

JAX

JAX

BAL

IND

BAL

CIN

NE

DNP

DNP

X

DNP

DNP

*BAL

DNP

DNP

MIA

IND

SD

DNP

SPLIT

DNP

MIA

DNP

X

MIA

TC

TC

TC

NYJ

TC

DNP

TC

SPLIT

DNP

JAX

DNP

MIA

X

DNP

NYJ

NYJ

PIT

DNP

PIT

CIN

DNP

PIT

DNP

*BAL

TC

DNP

X

DNP

PIT

HOU

IND

DNP

HOU

TC

DNP

JAX

DNP

TC

NYJ

DNP

X

SPLIT

TEN

*IND

TC

DNP

NE

DNP

JAX

DNP

TC

NYJ

PIT

SPLIT

X

NFC	NO	MIN	ARI	DAL	GB	PHI	NYG	ATL
NO	X	DNP	DNP	TC	DNP	NO	NO	*NO
MIN	DNP	X	ARI	DNP	MIN	DNP	TC	DNP
ARI	DNP	ARI	X	DNP	TC	DNP	ARI	DNP
DAL	TC	DNP	DNP	X	GB	*DAL	NYG	DAL
GB	DNP	MIN	TC	GB	X	DNP	DNP	DNP
PHI	NO	DNP	DNP	*DAL	DNP	X	*NYG	PHI
NYG	NO	TC	ARI	NYG	DNP	*NYG	X	NYG
ATL	*NO	DNP	DNP	DAL	DNP	PHI	NYG	X