UCLA: In Need of Wins, Wizardry

When programs like UCLA -- and there aren't many programs like UCLA -- go through what the Bruins are going through right now, only time will tell whether they've hit a bump in the road or gone careening off a cliff. Then again, starts like the one UCLA is on -- 3-6 going into a weekend game at Notre Dame -- feel like a trip off the cliff no matter what.

So the only explanation that fits right now is the one that explains right now: UCLA has lost a ton of talent in the years since its run of three straight Final Fours from 2006 to '08, and it has not replaced it. Ben Howland himself can't even deny that, not that he tends toward denial in general.

"It all comes down to recruiting,'' Howland said last week. "The reason we've had success in the past is because we've had good players. We have a very young team right now. I wish there was an easier answer and you could plan better. It is difficult.''

And that was before his team played Mississippi State Saturday at the Wooden Classic in Anaheim, with the Wizard of Westwood himself, the 99-year-old UCLA dynasty coach and event namesake, John Wooden, sitting courtside. Mississippi State bludgeoned UCLA 72-54, and the game was not that close, even in the first half. Afterward, Howland and some of his players expressed embarrassment at having Wooden witness that.

"Forget the record right now. Trust me, by the end of this season Ben is going to have one of the better teams in (the Pac-10)."
- Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury Ironically, this isn't the worst or most embarrassing stretch of the decade, much less the post-Wooden era -- it was only the Bruins' fifth straight loss, one short of the longest skids in Howland's seven years at UCLA. After he was brought on to replace Steve Lavin and bring stability to the program in 2003-04, Howland and the Bruins had two six-game losing streaks down the stretch to mark his first season.

The bad start this year hardly compares to the turmoil of that transition. If nothing else, UCLA has fallen prey to a very good schedule: the five losses were to Portland, Butler, Long Beach State, top-ranked Kansas and the Bulldogs. They snapped the streak Tuesday night in a rout at Pauley Pavilion over New Mexico State. On the other hand, they lost their season opener at home, in double-overtime to Cal State Fullerton, and many observers didn't consider it an upset, because Fullerton appeared to have the better roster.

The turnover in talent at UCLA is unmistakable. Ponder this list: Darren Collison, Alfred Aboya, Josh Shipp, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jordan Farmar, Arron Afflalo. As the key players in the run of Final Fours, their names were heard and seen often every March and April. They're now all gone. Collison, Aboya and Shipp were around for last year's expulsion from the second round of the NCAA tournament by Villanova, 89-69, also in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated.

Throw in Jrue Holiday, and that further explains the talent drain. Holiday is the second straight star freshman, after Love, to leave after a year to go to the NBA. Not that there was a particular reason for either to stay, but this season would look completely different if they were still at UCLA. Holiday's departure stung; he was widely criticized for doing it, and he makes for an easy scapegoat, although Howland wants no part of that: "Everybody up here has lost someone early ... We've all had that issue.''

A big dip in a program's fortunes is not uncommon in recent years, either, as fans of NCAA champions in this decade can attest. Florida has missed the NCAA tournament twice in a row since winning its second title in 2007. After winning in '04, Connecticut had a spotty run -- a second-round loss, a first-round loss, an NIT trip and the upset by George Mason -- before getting back to the Final Four last season. Syracuse (2003) went four years without a tourney win, missing it altogether twice. Maryland (2002) had to settle for the NIT three times in a stretch of four years and Duke (2001) has made just one Final Four since.

All could be attributed, in one way or another, to sudden talent drop-offs, via underwhelming or underachieving recruiting or early NBA departure.

For what it's worth, the expectations were not high for this year's freshman- and sophomore-laden Bruins; they were picked third in the preseason, behind Cal and Washington. Now it looks as if they won't live up to those modest predictions. Making the disappointment deeper is that the freshman class, while not Kentucky-level, was considered top-five, and that one player they had depended on, sophomore center Drew Gordon, left the team a few weeks ago with plans to transfer. Unhappy as he was, he was the team's No. 3 scorer and rebounder when he left.

That has left Howland doing some lineup-juggling and scheme-adjusting. Freshmen Reeves Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt are being worked in, with Nelson replacing Gordon as a starter up front. In the middle of the skid, he said that he would start using more zone than he's comfortable with, trying to fix his and the program's trademark defense. So far, not-so-good: a team that prides itself on grinding games out and holding teams under 60 points is giving up more than 68 a game and 45 percent shooting.

UCLA is short on offense itself, again -- it's shooting 41.5 percent, and just two players, guards Michael Roll, a senior, and Malcolm Lee, a sophomore, average in double figures. Nikola Dragovic, an outside threat off the bench last year, is off to a nightmarish start to his senior year: he went 2-for-14 from the floor against Fullerton and is at 29 percent now and averaging 7.5 points a game, two fewer than last season.

Howland's fellow coaches do give him the benefit of the doubt. "They went to three straight Final Fours; that doesn't happen anymore,'' Washington coach Lorenzo Romar told reporters before his team played (and lost to) Georgetown at the Wooden Classic. "That is history. I know they weren't national championships, but find someone else that has done that lately. For the UCLA community, don't take that for granted.''

Added Mississippi State's Rick Stansbury: "Forget the record right now. Trust me, by the end of this season Ben is going to have one of the better teams in (the Pac-10). He has had some transition, but even at that, their team is very good. They are capable of beating anybody any night.''

That is not that much of a stretch, particularly in a league that is off to a shaky start. Both Cal and Washington have faltered against tougher competition so far, and that's at the top of the league. Further down, USC, Arizona and Washington State are breaking in new coaches; a returning coach, Oregon's Ernie Kent, has been on the hot seat for at least two seasons, while Johnny Dawkins is overseeing an overhaul at Stanford in only his second season.

An opportunistic program with an established coach, a legacy of success and a recent history of deep postseason runs could do damage once conference season begins at the end of December. Whether UCLA is capable of being that team, with the hole it has dug itself already, remains to be seen.