Fantasy Football Over/Under: Week 15

Another week, another new format for the Over/Under, as we look for ways to mix it up heading into the holiday season. For today's column, I enlisted the help of my buddy Hort from the Fantasy Football Cafe. We took 10 players that are possibly on the edges of your start or sit decision. Hort gave me an over/under line for their fantasy point total this week. I'll make an over/under pick and explain myself, and hopefully it will result in some easier decisions for you.

If you have questions about particular players that aren't listed here, please come by our Sunday Tailgate chat in the morning, which kicks off at 10:30 AM ET and runs through the start of the early games.

Jason Campbell, QB, WAS vs. NYG -- 22 Points

We're warming up to starting Campbell this week, and I'm higher on him than I am on players like Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Tony Romo. Campbell has scored eight touchdowns (one rushing) over his last three games against the Eagles, Saints and Raiders. In his game against the Saints, he completed over 70 percent of his passes and gained 367 yards through the air, finishing with 28.25 fantasy points, making this over/under definitely within his grasp.

That performance was only the second time he had reached the 22-point mark though, with the other coming in Week 3 against the Lions. He simply hasn't gained enough yardage on a consistent basis to think that he'll be able to score 22 points. Even in Week 13's three-touchdown day, the two interceptions and 231 yards left him just shy of 22 points. The Giants are only allowing about 220 yards through the air per game, and Campbell will need to tack 100 onto that total to have a shot here. I don't like his odds. Pick: Under.

Alex Smith, QB, SF at PHI -- 12 Points

Smith recently had a run just like the one Campbell is on right now, though Smith's excellence came to a screeching halt last week. In Weeks 11-13, the San Francisco QB threw seven TDs and only one interception, posing a 20-point game in each of those three contests. That led many to believe he'd be a safe option moving forward, but last week's game against the Cardinals only produced 10.8 fantasy points, thanks to a 144-yard day.

Against the Eagles, which Smith will we see? I'm thinking we get the 20-point variety. Philadelphia has had a big problem covering tight ends this year, and we know that Vernon Davis is the most dangerous player on the 49ers right now. We've also seen Michael Crabtree emerge in recent weeks, which should prevent the Eagles from focusing all the coverage on Davis. Philly gives up about 18 points per game to opposing QBs, and I like Smith's shot at another 20-point game here. He's an excellent No. 2 QB for your team this week, and deserves consideration over guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, and maybe even Tom Brady. Pick: Over.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC vs. CLE -- 21 Points

OK, at this point you have to be starting Charles, so a start/sit discussion may be a little redundant. With such a juicy matchup, I wanted to talk about how high Charles's stock has risen. Believe it or not, he's not just a good No. 2 running back or flex for your team; he's established himself as a No. 1 RB, with four of his last five games resulting in at least 18 fantasy points. It turns out those of us that were pining for Charles to start over Larry Johnson were right all along.

Last week against Buffalo, the former Longhorn took 20 carries 143 yards while scoring a touchdown and added 38 yards on seven catches. Pessimists will point out that came against the league's worst run defense -- and they're right -- but this week's matchup against the Browns gives Charles another terrible run defense on which to feast. 150 yards and a TD is within his grasp, but I think it'll be even easier for Charles to reach the 21-point mark, as I see multiple TDs on tap for him Sunday. He's had ball security issues, fumbling the ball in consecutive weeks against San Diego and Denver, but that won't limit him this week. He's a must-start for your team and a top-five RB in Week 15. Pick: Over.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI at DET -- 15 Points

Flash back several weeks -- opportunistic fantasy owners were already looking forward to the fantasy playoffs and wondering which players they should be targeting. With Wells available in about half of the Fleaflicker universe, he was our immediate must-grab, thanks to a very favorable playoff schedule. He started things off with a bang in Week 14, totaling 100 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers.

This week he takes on the Lions, a team giving up 175 yards per game to running backs while also allowing over a TD per game to the position. Sounds like an easy over for the rookie, right? But what about Tim Hightower, the incumbent starting running back for Arizona that as recently as Week 12 had been receiving double-digit touches per game? He's been limited with a thumb injury over the last two contests and draws a probable tag this week. He was also listed as probable last week and received just two carries and two receptions. This means it should be safe to play Wells as a No. 2 RB, as he should receive the bulk of Arizona's yardage and a TD or two in the red zone. Pick: Over.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU at STL -- 19 Points

Whoa, slow down Hort! I know there's a lot of hype surrounding Foster now that Steve Slaton is on the IR, but he didn't even see his first game action till last week. While the 54 yards on four receptions were very nice, Foster only managed 34 yards on 13 carries against Seattle, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. He'll also have to contend with the other horses in the Houston stable. Chris Brown scored touchdowns in Weeks 12 and 13, while Ryan Moats had 43 yards and a TD on ten carries in last week's game.

Even with the coaches stating they want to get Foster more involved in the offense, I don't think we can look at him as a lead back. Rather, this situation should be treated as we treat the committees on teams like Oakland, Tampa Bay, and so on. This is an excellent matchup for the undrafted free agent and all the Houston backs, as the Rams are allowing more than 19 fantasy points per game to running backs this year. They're also the team that gives up the most TDs to RBs. With that said, you'll have to take the 20-point pie and split it up between three backs. Unless Foster receives all of the work on Sunday, he'll fall well short of that over/under listed above. Pick: Under.

Roddy White, WR, ATL at NYJ -- 2 Points

That seems like a really low total, especially considering White is a top-ten WR this season. There are several factors at play here though. First, consider White has been playing hurt for about two months. Second, he's had to deal with Chris Redman under center the last few weeks, and that scenario should again come to pass in Week 15. Third, the conditions in New York for this game are going to be snowy and below freezing, thereby limiting the effectiveness of the offense.

Fourth, and most importantly, White will take part in The Revis Experience, a secondary phenomenon that's taken on some of the league's best receivers and left nothing but carnage in its wake. Andre Johnson (4 catches/35 yards), Randy Moss (4/24), Marques Colston (2/33), Steve Smith (1/5), Antonio Bryant (2/22) ... the list just goes on and on. Expect Darrell Revis on White all day, combine that with the other factors listed above, and two points may start sounding like a stretch for White this week. The Jets have stifled opposing WRs all year, and this game shouldn't be any different. I'm going to take the over here, but it won't be by much (say, three catches for 28 yards). Pick: Over.

Antonio Bryant, WR, TB at SEA -- 5 Points

Speaking of Revis, we have his latest victim up next. Bryant only could manage two catches for 22 yards in last week's game against the Jets, but he had been heating up before that stinker. In Week 12, he posted 91 yards and a touchdown on three catches (with the bulk of the work coming on the first drive). In Week 13, he recorded five catches and gained 116 yards, and that performance came against a very good Carolina pass defense.

Will Bryant be able to bounce right back to that double-digit point level this week? Considering I have him in my top ten at the position, I'm banking on it. The Seahawks secondary has performed like one giant turnstile this year, allowing 170 yards and 1.6 TDs per game to wide receivers. If Tampa approaches those averages, you have to believe Bryant will be the biggest benefactor. Bryant should at least double the listed over/under total, and I have a feeling he triples it, finishing the day near 100 yards and with a touchdown in tow. I'd play him over just about anyone that's not an established No. 1 WR this week. Pick: Over.

Randy Moss, WR, NE at BUF -- 11 Points

In the middle of the season, Moss was unstoppable, posting 20-point games three times in a four-game stretch and threatening to be considered the league's best WR. Since that run, he's averaged less than eight points per game over the last four weeks. He also drew attention this week after a Carolina defender's assertion that he had quickly given up on the field in last week's game, allowing himself to be taken out of the action after some tough defensive coverage. I think it's pretty telling that three New England leaders (quarterback Tom Brady, coach Bill Belichik, and owner Robert Kraft) felt they had to step up and defend the receiver. I guess Carolina just made defending him look that easy.

He'll be up against Buffalo this week, and the Bills do not allow receivers to score at all, ranking just behind the Jets by only giving up about 6.5 points per game to the position. Their 0.38 TDs per game to receivers is the best mark in the league, and it comes from having a truly awful run defense. Any points the Patriots are going to put up through the air will be thanks to Wes Welker this week. I don't see double-digits for Moss in such a bad matchup with a nicked up QB and bad weather in the forecast. If I had options, I'd bench him. Pick: Under.

Jason Avant, WR, PHI vs. SF -- 5 Points

Avant only managed one catch in last week's game, and it won't show up under his reception or yardage total, since it was on a successful two-point conversion attempt in last week's win against the Giants. In the previous week, Avant had just three catches for 36 yards, but prior to that, he had come through with three big performances, averaging almost 12 points per game over a three-week stretch. He's reached the five-point mark in just four games this year, so why am I thinking about taking the over?

It's simple: Jeremy Maclin is out for the Eagles, which gives Avant a bigger role in the offense this week. Yardage should be plentiful, as the 49ers allow 160 yards to receivers each week. DeSean Jackson is of course the favorite for a big game, but don't forget about Avant. I'd play him as a No. 3 WR over guys like Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward, and Michael Crabtree, and I definitely wouldn't hesitate to use him as a flex over several questionable running backs. I'll take the over here for Avant, but not by much. Pick: Over.

Fred Davis, TE, WAS vs. NYG -- 13 Points

Thirteen seems like a pretty high point total for a tight end, but Davis has an excellent shot of reaching that mark this week. He's scored touchdowns in each of his last three games, including two against Oakland last week. His yardage numbers aren't going to be very high -- only once has he topped Week 13's 53-yard total -- so it will be on him to step his game up in that department to reach 13 this week. That, or score twice again. His owners will take either.

I think the yardage comes this week. The Giants have allowed more yards to tight ends than any other team in the league this year, with TEs averaging a shade under 70 yards per game in 2009. This has led to the Giants being the second-easiest defense for tight ends to succeed against. New York allows about 9.5 points to the position on average, and Davis will have to eclipse that by a wide margin to reach 13. I think he can do it, and we should see better than 75 yards and a TD from him this week. Start him over almost any other TE, thanks to the great matchup. Pick: Over.

Thanks to Hort for playing along with this experiment, and I hope you guys enjoyed it!