Fantasy Football Reality Check: Love Those Handcuffs

Each Monday of the fantasy football season, we'll cut through the fantasy numbers put up by individuals and tell you what they really mean.

Remember all the way back in the preseason when we constantly harped on how important it was to handcuff your starting running backs? Fast-forward to Week 15, when most fantasy leagues staged their semifinals, and you can see why. Maurice Morris (22.1 points in standard scoring leagues Sunday), Jerome Harrison (47.8), Jamaal Charles (23), Laurence Maroney (14.1), Michael Bush (20.4), Rashard Mendenhall (17.1) and LeSean McCoy (11.6) all started the season buried on the depth charts of their respective teams. None of these guys were even involved in a time-share situation. Yet you likely could have won your semifinals in fantasy football by playing them.

Sure, you could just grab these guys off the waiver wires in shallow leagues, but in deeper leagues you won't have that option. Just keep this day in mind next season when you're drafting your 16-team league. You can't always just automatically plug someone in and replace the statistical output of the starter, but it happens often enough to justify holding down a roster spot with a handcuff instead of your sixth wideout or third quarterback. Let others deal with the waiver wire while you sit on your insurance policy.

Other Reality Checks

• After a one-week hiatus, Aaron Rodgers once again showed why he's the best quarterback in fantasy football. How about a 41-point week -- 383 passing yards, three touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown to boot. He even threw for a two-point conversion. There may have been some apprehension from some owners after last week's less-than-stellar stat line, but let this be a lesson that one game doesn't mean there's a trend forming. He'll destroy the vulnerable Seahawks next week as well.

Now, let us apply that to another elite quarterback. If you were able to get through the semis with Brees' lackluster output in Week 15, do not even think twice about using him against the Bucs in Week 16. You can expect an explosion as the Saints come out with a vengeance. Look for more than 30 points from Brees.

• While one game isn't a trend, three games is. There's something wrong with Brett Favre. I hate to go here, but it's just too obvious. He's old. To make matters worse, he's getting beat up. There have been some holes in the offensive line the past three weeks and he's being sacked at a much higher frequency than he was earlier in the season. His game against the Bears might look pretty enticing next week, but there are several reasons to fear him. First of all, we have these past three games. Also consider the last time the Bears played at home they shut down Rodgers and were abused on the ground. As I mentioned last week, Adrian Peterson owns the Bears (owns isn't even a strong enough word). The Vikings are (hopefully) smart enough to know they need to run the ball and keep guys off their aging franchise quarterback, too. If I had to guess, I'd say you're looking at a 150-yard game from Favre with no more than one touchdown pass. That's not what you want from your signal-caller in the fantasy championship. See if you can get Vince Young, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, Alex Smith or Jason Campbell.

• DeSean Jackson should never be on your bench. Ever. He's just too good at this point and he's only getting better. Since Week 10, he's been incredibly consistent as well (save for having to sit out after a concussion), scoring at least nine points each week. He's now scored a touchdown in four straight games (that he's played) and he's blowing up at present -- combining for over 50 points in the past two weeks. I expect to rank him among the top 10 receivers heading into next season, so take note of that in keeper leagues. He's only going to get better.

• Speaking of keeper leagues, Jamaal Charles is a must-keep. The opponent doesn't seem to matter, either. He's scored at least 18 points in five of the past six games. He's scored a touchdown in all six of those games (seven total). As the Chiefs look to build their offense, they'll concentrate on improving the passing attack and will leave Charles alone in the backfield. He's got power, speed, agility and consistency. Even his off-game (Week 13) resulted in double-digit points. Without getting out and re-ranking everyone -- remember, I did this a few weeks ago -- I'm going to say he has a chance to work into RB1 status in larger leagues. I mean, would you rather have him or Ryan Grant? Charles or Brandon Jacobs? Joseph Addai? I'm picking Charles over all those guys -- and those are high-end RB2 types in 2010.

• Jermichael Finley is establishing himself as a low-end TE1, especially in PPR-leagues -- he's caught 31 passes in the past five games. He's gone for at least 70 yards in three straight weeks and has three touchdowns in that same span. He should certainly be used over the Greg Olsen, Kevin Boss and Visanthe Shiancoe types.

• Do yourself a favor and avoid all Texans running backs for the rest of the year. Gary Kubiak doesn't even know what he wants, so there's no way a fantasy owner should be expected to figure it out.

• If you look at the receiver numbers from the Chiefs, you might conclude that Chris Chambers is more valued in the passing game than Dwayne Bowe. If you did form that conclusion, you'd be jumping the gun. Look deeper. Bowe missed four games and was likely a bit discombobulated. He was targeted 10 times and caught only four. He dropped a pass when he was standing alone in the end zone. On the other hand, Chambers caught all five of his targets. Yes, that's correct. Matt Cassel looked for Bowe twice as often as he did Chambers. Bowe will get back into the swing of things this week and there's a good chance he has a big game against the same Cincy defense that allowed Vincent Jackson in the end zone twice.

• You know who I like as a good prospect in deep keeper or dynasty leagues? Mike Wallace. He's been up and down this season after becoming a hot commodity midway through the year and then flaming out, but he's a rookie. Here's why I love him moving forward, though: Hines Ward is going to turn 34 before next season. As physical as he plays, he doesn't have a ton of time left as a starter. The more Wallace continues to mature and reinforce the confidence Ben Roethlisberger has in him, the more he'll steal catches from Ward. I could see him as a high-end WR2 by the end of next season.

• Matt Moore has improved the past two weeks and he actually doesn't suck. It's not easy to put up a good stat line against the Vikings and he nearly threw for 300 yards (he ended one yard shy at 299). Three touchdown passes, too. Wow. He actually outscored many of the elite quarterback options. Is this the sign of anything continued? Doubtful. There's just nothing here to suggest the Panthers become a passing team instead of leaning on Jonathan Stewart and/or DeAngelo Williams. For now, we're calling this one an outlier.

That being said, if you play in multi-QB leagues, be advised you can pass on the Giants (Carolina's Week 16 opponent). I could see him as a desperation QB2 and definitely as a QB3.