Javier Vazquez Still Has Fantasy Value

The big news of the day in the baseball world was a trade by the defending World Champions for a pitcher who turned out to be a gem of a fantasy baseball player this past season: Javier Vazquez. With 15 wins, 238 K, a 2.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, he was an elite fantasy pitcher in 2009; proving an absolute steal in an overwhelming majority of 5X5 leagues.

There's sure to be an initial feeling that his fantasy value has been effectively butchered in the trade to the Yankees. Moving from the AL to the NL hurts most pitchers, but we've already had plenty of samples of what to expect Vazquez. It's pretty ugly. His career ERA when a member of an NL team is 4.02. On an AL team? 4.52. In addition to that, he's already had a one-year stint for the Yankees and he posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Plus, he's now going to be in a division with the Red Sox and Rays. The only tough offense he had to deal with in the NL East was the Phillies.

Does all this really mean his fantasy value is in the tank, though?

Though it definitely takes a hit, I'd say not necessarily. Let's not be so hasty here.

Vazquez is coming off a career year. At 33, he's certainly not too old to be continually refining his craft. Check out the surge strikeout pitchers like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling had in their mid-30s as they learned how to channel their powerful stuff. As a guy who has averaged at least eight strikeouts for every nine innings pretty much his entire career, Vazquez certainly qualifies as a strikeout pitcher.

In fact, he's struck out over 200 hitters for the past three years -- two of which were in the AL. Don't expect that to change. He'll punch out 200 again this year. He's also going to greatly benefit from increased run support. He went 15-10 last season despite having a 2.87 ERA. He took losses in quality starts four times. He took no decisions in quality starts five times. That means his record could have very easily been 24-6. Sure, it's an archaic stat, but do you think this trade goes down if he gets consistent run support in 2009? Hell, he would have won the Cy Young and probably gotten a contract extension (as an unrelated fantasy note, isn't it amazing how much clout W-L still has in terms of pitchers? There's no doubt in my mind Vazquez wins the Cy Young almost unanimously if he gets to 20-8, even though I'm not changing anything he did on his own).

So you can expect the wins and strikeouts to stay consistent, but what about WHIP and ERA? Well, those are going up. But I don't think they'll skyrocket to what many will believe. In a three-year stint with the White Sox, Vazquez had a collective 4.40 ERA. I think he's better and he's learned a lot from his last time in Yankee pinstripes. Oh, and I know it's a ridiculously small sample, but he faced the Red Sox one time in 2009. He worked 7 1/3 innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out eight (naturally, he took the loss).

Considering everything, I'll say he keeps his ERA in the 4.25 range and WHIP around 1.20. Team those with his strikeout and win potential, he'll still prove to be a valuable starter this year.

Others Involved

Melky Cabrera - He's only 25, so it's definitely worth mentioning there's still room for him to improve his offensive skills across the board. Plus, the move to the National League will help. Melky's 5X5 numbers last year were: .274 average, 13 home runs, 68 RBI, 66 runs, 10 stolen bases. With Atlanta, he won't have near as stacked a lineup around him -- and the home park isn't near as homer-friendly -- so you'd expect the HR, RBI and runs to decrease. Still, his natural progression as a hitter and league switch can mitigate these things. I also expect him to run more in this lineup. With a similar number of plate appearances, look for a .285 average with 12 home runs, 65 RBI, 65 runs and 15 steals.

Braves Outfield - Matt Diaz will probably still be stuck in a platoon, but don't expect him to lose many at-bats against lefties. He abused them for a 1.103 OPS in 2009 (compared to .749 against right-handers). Jason Heyward is only 20, but the Braves could very well give him a shot to become the everyday right-fielder in camp. He rose all the way from Class-A-Advanced to Triple-A in 2009, compiling a total stat-line of .323 average with 17 homers, 63 RBI, 10 steals and a .963 OPS in 99 games. In yearly leagues, he's only a late-round flier, but don't forget about him. He's got serious stud potential.

Arodys Vizcaino - Keeper leaguers take note. Vizcaino projects as a front-line pitcher with big-time strikeout potential. He's only 19 and he's struck out 100 batters in 86 1/3 career minor league innings. His 2.13 ERA in Class-A (low level) last season was a great sign as well. If you have a few minor league spots, take a look and keep your eyes on his progress.

Yankees Outfield - This move most certainly means Curtis Granderson won't be platooning and Nick Swisher is still held in high enough esteem that he'll get a shot to play nearly every day in right field. That being said, the Yankees aren't done making moves, so we can't accurate judge what's going to happen just yet.