Opinion: Relief at Last for Cable Customers?

(Dec. 23) -- 'Tis the season of miracles. On Tuesday -- cue the choir of heavenly angels -- the Wall Street Journal reported that Steve Jobs may be on the verge of delivering the gift cable subscribers have long prayed for: a shakeup of this lovely shake-down industry.

Apple plans to sell television packages over the Internet, a twist on its successful iTunes strategy. According to the Journal, CBS and Walt Disney Co. are considering signing on as content providers, possibly signaling an opening of the programming floodgates. What's more, iTunes TV might be commercial free, offering monthly access to as many as 30 pick-and-choose channels for less than half the average $70 cable bill.

There's no guarantee Jobs will come out the other end of this venture a savior, much less a wiseman. Remember the Apple TV set-top box? The $300 gizmo that was going to build a glorious streaming-video bridge between our televisions and computers? Of course, you don't. Steve would just as soon forget that stinker, too. His Edsel.

On the other hand, Jobs struck it incredibly rich with his Apple desktop, iPod and iPhone. Never underestimate a man who has managed to fend off both pancreatic cancer and Microsoft.

In this particular battle, Jobs has one big thing working in his favor: Customers almost universally despise their cable TV provider. It's difficult to think of other targets held in equally low regard. Well, with the possible exception of insurance companies.

Here's a delightfully unscientific measure of ill will. Type "my cable company is great" into a Google search box. You'll get three hits. Then try, "hooray for cable TV." Four hits.

Now try "My cable company sucks." That's good for more than 72,000.

Those are what polling folks call "high negatives." If cable TV were a presidential candidate, it might be prudent to call a news conference and announce that you want to spend more time with your family.

Another factor working in Jobs' favor is that iTunes TV subscribers would be allowed to design their own truncated station menus. That addresses the great bugaboo of cable TV: People are forced to pay for a 50-course meal of stations, most of which they never bother sampling.

Cable operators contend that it's more economical to serve up a smorgasbord of programs. Besides, they say, some of the less popular ones cater to minority audiences who deserve media outlets. Regardless, everybody knows the sinking feeling of flipping through a proverbial vast wasteland of channels, pausing only for a peek, just as you do when driving by a burning car on the side of the highway.

As overstuffed and overpriced as American cable TV may be, Jobs faces genuine obstacles luring viewers. A handful of cable and commercial stations have locked up the exclusive rights to all major sports. It's unlikely iTunes TV will be able to stream any of those events live. America mainlines sports. That means a good chunk of Jobs' potential audience must remain wedded to their cable TV station.

Furthermore, the cable TV industry is an 800-pound gorilla -- with deep cash-filled pockets and powerful friends. The National Cable and Telecommunications Association spent $14.4 million lobbying Congress in 2008, heavily courting members of both parties. Comcast alone drops $1 million a month in Washington; Apple about one-tenth that amount.

Then there's the fact that most consumers on broadband get Internet access from their local cable company. So if even you sign up with iTunes TV, you're still likely to be stuck with your cable company that sucks.

Steve Jobs may put a dent in cable's side, but the tank probably will keep rolling along.

If he wants to do something about public access and affordability, he might be better off turning his attention elsewhere. Health care reform certainly could use a hand.

Hey, Steve, given any thought yet to iInsurance?