McGrady to Chicago? Why John Salmons is the Key

Mike McGraw of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald writes that Bulls sources believe the franchise would consider trading for iced Rocket Tracy McGrady. As I laid out this week, Chicago does have the assets to make such a move, with at least $20 million in expiring contracts. Two-guard John Salmons isn't included in that total, because while he came into the season expected to invoke his June 2010 early termination option, that's no longer a certainty. If Salmons doesn't opt out, he's on the books for $5.8 million next season.

That could be a vital $5.8 million for Chicago, the difference between being able to offer a top-tier player like Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh a maximum value contract or not. As such, the thinking has been that Chicago may want to remove the risk by trading Salmons for a definitely expiring contract before the deadline. A McGrady deal could be such an avenue. (McGrady's $22.5 million contract expires this summer.)

The question is how afraid of Salmons' potential $5.8 million salary Houston would be. Houston's in a weird spot heading into the league's summer of destiny. Yao Ming can (and likely will) be a free agent, ready to ink his last massive contract. Yao will be eligible for a starting salary equal to 30 percent of the salary cap, which means a 2010-11 salary of at least $15.6 million. You assume the Rockets will attempt to keep Yao, even if it takes a six-year maximum salary deal.

That tightens Houston's scenario significantly. If Yao is signed, the Rockets wouldn't be able to bid for a top-tier free agent outright. In that case, having Salmons at $5.8 million might not be so bad. Last season in both Sacramento and Chicago he was well worth his (slightly larger) salary. He's had an awful start to 2009-10, and he is on the wrong side of his biological peak. But less than $6 million for a decent scorer and solid defender on the wing isn't that bad. It's certainly not Eddy Curry's $12 million contract, you know?

But even without the ability to sign, say, Wade, you expect Houston will want as much flexibility as possible. Luis Scola is almost guaranteed to get more than his qualifying offer of $4 million in restricted free agency. Scola either must be re-signed or replaced, and Salmons' weight on the team's cap figure could complicate that.

But not all teams are looking the play ball this summer, and Salmons could help talent-deprived teams more than he could the Rockets. I'm looking at you, Timberwolves. Minnesota will be in the market for second- or third-tier free agents this summer due to salary obligations and distance from reasonable contention. The team is atrocious at the wing positions (Corey Brewer can defend, but if he's your top small forward you damn well need a scorer at the two-guard) and the idea of Salmons skipping his termination clause won't make or break the team's summer plans.

A deal sending McGrady and Minnesota's Oleksiy Pecherov (a youngster with an expiring $1.5 million contract) to Chicago, Brad Miller (expiring), Jerome James (expiring) and Brian Cardinal (expiring) to Houston and Salmons and Brian Cook (expiring) to Minnesota works under cap rules, and would actually save Houston and Chicago a touch of cash this season.